Before the match starts, I want to get in a few predictions.  Back in the French Open, we still needed some convincing that Djokovic was playing good tennis.  He finally reached a good level of play at the semifinals where he beat Roger Federer.  This time around, Djokovic seems a lot more solid heading into the finals.  Federer had some hiccups getting here being pushed by Benneteau and scared by Malisse.  He had an easy win over Youzhny, but Youzhny isn’t Djokovic.  The shots that Youzhny was hacking with his forehand, Djokovic will get to in time and make an aggressive shot.  Even so, Federer needed a confident match heading into the semis, even if it’s against someone easy.

For Federer to win, he needs Djokovic to play less than his best, and he needs to be on his game.  This is tough because Djokovic makes Federer hit 2-3 shots more than he wants to and that often translates to errors and points.  Even so, grass should be Fed’s best surface.  I still see Djokovic winning in 4, but maybe I’ll be surprised.

*Federer-Djokovic 1-0 Quick first hold

Federer-Djokovic* 1-1 Federer tries to be aggressive on return, but misses several.  Easy hold for Djokovic.  Djokovic wins the one prolonged point with a pass.

*Federer-Djokovic 2-1 Fed plays a sloppy first point, hitting an approach wide, but plays a few aggressive serves and another good approach.  Fed wants to be aggressive.

*Federer-Djokovic 3-2 Djokovic held pretty easily.  Fed wants to be aggressive, but can’t do it consistently enough.  A few big serves and Fed holds his own serve.

Federer-Djokovic* 4-2 Fed plays an aggressive shot inside in to reach 30-all.  Djoker slips trying to volley to break point.  Djoker hits shot into the net to give Fed the break.

*Federer-Djokovic 5-2 A few sloppy shots by Djokovic and big serving with an easy hold for Fed.

*Federer-Djokovic 6-3. Djokovic holds easily. In one point, Fed hits an aggressive return down the line.  Djokovic contorts to hit a half-volley crosscourt for the winner.  Fed slaps and misses a few returns, eager to get on his serve.  A few big serves and a few good ground exchanges and Fed holds to win the first set.  Very quick first set as Fed likes it.

SECOND SET

*Djokovic-Federer 1-0  Fed had chance for 0-30 but nets the pass.  Had another opportunity to reach deuce but slices into the net.  Fed had a nice high backhand slice volley to win the point.

*Djokovic-Federer 3-0 Djokovic now playing longer points.  Fed shanks a ball on his serve, then nets a shot when Novak hits him wide, then nets another shot.  Fed gets one point, but Djoker hits aggressive and Fed misses his forehand into the net again.  Djoker breaks!  Fed struggles on return.  Djoker has the lead.

*Djokovic-Federer 4-1 Fed had a good serving game, but Djoker hit two great returns to get it to deuce.  Fed takes the next two points to get his first hold.  Djokovic is hitting very clean off the ground and serving well.  Easy hold to 4-1.

*Djokovic-Federer 5-2 Fed ups his serve speed because Djoker is reading the serve better.  He holds serve.  Djokovic getting range on his forehand.  Leave a ball sitting in the middle and he’s pouncing on that crosscourt shot.  Fed left to watch the forehands go by.  Challenge on a sharp angled forehand by Djo called out.  It was in.  Game to Djoker.

*Djokovic-Federer 6-3 Fed doing better on rallies, but only on his serve.  Hits a serve-volley point, and eventually wins serve.  Djoker dominant on his serve either hitting the big serve, or the big groundie.  Hits an ace to take the second set.

Djoker wins second set!  This is a quick match with two sets played in an hour’s time.

THIRD SET

 *Federer-Djokovic 2-1.  Fed doing better on rallies on his own serve.  Djoker made a few mistakes.  Then Djoker misses a few serves, gives Fed chances to get into his serve game, but Fed makes mistakes on them, unable to secure break.  On his own serve, Fed again rallies well off the ground and holds easily.

 *Federer-Djokovic 3-2. Djoker holds his own serve comfortably.  Fed rallies well on his own serve, but hasn’t done as well on Djoker’s serve.  On serve.

 *Federer-Djokovic 4-3. The 3-all game on Djoker’s serve becomes the first great game of the match.  Fed has a break point.  Djoker saves it in a 23 shot rally with both players moving all over.  Fed still managed another break point, but Djoker eventually holds.  Fed doing pretty well holding his own on bh to bh exchanges.  Fed holds serve comfortably, serving well again, and hitting good rallies on his own serve.  Starting to get serious.

 *Federer-Djokovic 5-4. Fed plays a few bad forehands to give an easy hold to Djoker.  Then, he plays a drop shot at 30-15 on his own serve which Djoker passes.  Djoker gets to break point, but a few good serves bails out Fed.  Still on serve.

 *Federer-Djokovic 6-4. A great forehand down the line winner by Fed on Djo’s serve and a botched overhead leads Roger to double break point.  On first break point, Roger returns cross and Djo hits down the line for the winner.  On the second, Djo misses first serve, and rallies in second serve.  Roger approaches net, hits deep volley forcing a lob by Djo.  Lob is going deep but Roger gets the over head.

Roger wins third set!  Leads 2 sets to 1.

FOURTH SET

*Federer-Djokovic 3-0.  Federer holds to open the set.  Djokovic makes several bad errors in a row to give 0-40 to Fed.  Saves one great point to 15-40, then missed out wide to give the break.  Tried to gamble on Fed’s serve, but Fed still holds.

*Federer-Djokovic 4-1. Fed goes to deuce on Djo’s serve but Djo holds serve.  Fed holds his serve to love.  He’s looking to serve this match out and not worry about another break.  Djo seems to be struggling to get into Fed’s service games and time is running out.

Federer-Djokovic 4-2*. Djo was down 0-40, but plays serve and volley, then forehand down the line, backhand down the line, then several good serves.  Roger brings it to deuce twice, but nets forehands for a key Djo hold.

*Federer-Djokovic 5-2. Djo doesn’t seem to be able to return Fed’s serve.  In the one point he does, he gifts a backhand long.  Fed holds at love.  Needs only one more game to get into the finals for a seventh time.  Djo looking disappointed.

Federer-Djokovic 5-3*. Fed had another chance to get to break point.  Djo looked more relaxed at the end of the game, getting shots smoothly in Zen like fashion.

Federer-Djokovic 5-3* hits good first serve to go 15-0. Djo his dropper that clips the net.  15-all.  Fed approaches down the line and puts over head away to 30-15.  Fed hits big inside out forehand out to 30-all.  Hasn’t hit a first serve in.  Fed finally gets a big first serve, Djo appears to hit out, but challenge overturns.  Replay point.  Fed hits a big serve, Djo returns out.  Djo challenges, but serve clips line.  Fed serves down the middle, Djo nets it, Fed wins it!  Reaches final for 8th time.

Conclusion

I think the difference was in the third set as Fed started to hold serve with groundstrokes instead of merely the serve.  The second set could have been bad for Fed because Djo was hitting solid groundies and Fed was having a hard time keeping up.  Finally, Fed was able to play tough points on Djo’s serve esp in long backhand to backhand rallies.  Fed continued to serve well winning free points which was key.  Towards the end, Djokovic seemed nervous, uncertain he could keep up and made a lot more errors than expected.  He look intimidated.

So Roger heads into the final which he hasn’t done since last year’s French.  He also has to be happy not to see Rafa in the finals.

Next semis to come up soon!