Tomorrow, the Wimbledon draw comes out, so I thought I’d look at the top players heading into Wimbledon, and some dark horses.

Favorites

Roger Federer Fed is looking for his 6th Wimbledon title and was given the top seed despite being ranked number 2 in the world.  Here’s the downside.  Fed has only won one tournament this year.  However, that one win was a doozy–winning the Australian Open.  He’s been in two finals: Madrid and Halle.  The dominant Fed from 2006 and 2007 has given way to the selective Fed who seems to peak at Slams.  Roger’s loss to Robin Soderling at the French in the quarters marks the first time in years that he’s not reached the semifinals.  This signals some vulnerability in the maestro’s game.

Even so, Roger plays his best on grass and seems to dominate his opponents.  His loss to Hewitt is very similar to his recent losses.  Roger had chances to win, but hasn’t been mentally strong enough to overcome his problems.  His goal will be to serve well and try to hold serve, and then take chances on the breaks.  Roger is helped by his competition (outside of Nadal) not playing particularly well, specifically, Murray and Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal Rafa hasn’t had tremendous luck at the big W, but he keeps reaching finals.  He reached the final in 2006 and 2007 and won in 2008.  He skipped 2009 because of knee tendinitis.  If you had looked at Rafa’s game prior to Monte Carlo, you might have made him a shaky favorite at Wimbledon.  Rafa returned to his winning ways taking Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid, and the French Open.  If you were to ask someone who was Wimbledon favorite just after Rafa hoisted the trophy in Paris, they might have pointed to Rafael Nadal.

However, Rafa went to Queen’s and dropped a set to Denis Istomin and then lost to Feliciano Lopez, a player he hadn’t lost to since their first meeting in 2003.  Queen’s is considered somewhat fast for grass.  Was this the cause?  Or has Rafa decided to take it somewhat easier in smaller tournaments?  Or is Rafa particularly vulnerable on grass this year?

Odds are, Rafa will be fine for Wimbledon, but he goes into Wimbledon not having played a lot of grass court tennis.  Even so, Rafa trains as well as anyone, so expect him to go deep at the big W.

Nearly Favorites

The list of players here are just outside the favorites to win.  As usual, history favors Rafa and Roger to win the Slams.

Andy Murray Murray has had a much weaker season in 2010 than in 2009.  Murray started off well, playing in the Hopman Cup, then reaching the finals at the Aussie Open only to lose to his nemesis, Roger Federer.  Since then, his game has disappeared, but showed some signs of recovery at the French Open.  Murray skipped Marseille, lost to Tipsarevic in Dubai calling it a practice match, lost to Soderling at Indian Wells, then to Mardy Fish at Miami.  On clay, Murray had an embarrassing loss to Kohlschreiver, then trained hard and had two reasonable losses to David Ferrer in Rome and Madrid.  Murray then succumbed to Berdych in the fourth round.

Murray went to grass and lost again to Mardy Fish at Queen’s.  Fish made it to the finals where he lost to Querrey.  Unlike previous years, Murray goes into Wimbledon without a title.  Last year, Murray won Queen’s and reached the semifinals of Wimbledon.  Like Nadal, Murray seems to train well.  Although he’ll have a little over a week to practice, that was all he needed to improve his clay game between Monte Carlo and Rome.  Although his game doesn’t seem particularly suited to grass, he did grow up in the UK, so he has the braintrust of players that understand grass like Tim Henman.

Still, Murray isn’t coming into Wimbledon looking like the player that entered the Australian Open.  His confidence is not sky high, at least in terms of match wins.  Murray has been taking a page out of Federer’s book by telling the press that everything is OK, he’ll do well at Wimbledon, etc.  Fed has learned not to give anything away during these interviews, and these days Murray has done the same.

Andy Roddick Last year, Andy reached the pinnacle of his late career.  He had hoped a good showing at Wimbledon would push him to success the rest of the year.  Unfortunately, the hard court season didn’t turn out as he had hoped.  He lost to Sam Querrey in Los Angeles and to Juan Martin del Potro in Washington DC, then to John Isner at the US Open.  Then, as he complained about the long tennis schedule in Shanghai, he had to retire against Stan Wawrinka, and then missed the rest of the year.

Unlike Murray, Roddick has had a pretty good year.  He won Brisbane at the start of the year.  Then, he reached the finals of Indian Wells and then won Miami, beating Rafa Nadal en route.  However, Roddick skipped Monte Carlo and Rome and then got sick before Madrid, and lost to Gabashvili at the French.  At Queen’s, a tournament Roddick has won four times, but he lost to Dudi Sela.

Despite this, Roddick’s best Slam has always been Wimbledon.  He’s reached the finals 3 times.  The only gotcha is that Roddick hasn’t played his best tennis since about March.  Even so, he has the kind of game that works well on grass.  I’d probably put Roddick a little ahead of Murray this year, based on form.

On the Bubble

These group of players are just outside the group above.  They have a chance to go deep though probably not a chance to win.

Novak Djokovic Most people downgrade Djokovic, at least Americans who remember him airing his dirty laundry in 2008 when Roddick made some comments in a post-match interview that suggested Djokovic was faking his illnesses.  2010 didn’t exactly inspire many to believe that Djokovic’s confidence is back.  In particular, Djokovic lost to Tsonga at the Australian Open, apparently due (again) to fitness issues, despite being up 2 sets to love.  He hired Todd Martin to help his serve, but his serve seems worse than before.  Last year, Djokovic switched racquets and it seemed to affect his performance for many months.

Earlier in the year, he lost early to Ljubicic in Indian Wells and lost even earlier in Miami to Olivier Rochus.  He parted ways with Todd Martin shortly thereafter, explaining how it was confusing to work with two coaches.

At Belgrade, a tournament run by his family, Djokovic had to retire against Filip Krajinovic and blamed allergies for his problems.  He lost to Verdasco in back-to-back tournaments (Monte Carlo and Rome), then skipped Madrid because of his problems at Belgrade.  In a match somewhat like his match against Tsonga at the AO, Djokovic was up 2 sets to none, and couldn’t last against Melzer.  Although he didn’t struggle nearly like he did against Tsonga, somehow getting a second wind, he still didn’t manage to win.

Finally, at Queen’s he lost to Xavier Malisse.

Despite all this, Djokovic is generally able to reach the quarter of a major.  He’s still too talented not to win a few rounds.  He had that one year where he lost to Safin in the second round, but he reached the semis the year before and he reached the quarters last year.  This year, Djokovic reached the quarters of the Australian Open and the quarters of the French Open.  Djokovic, like Murray, hasn’t had a great 2010, but he generally is good for a few rounds.  He’s genuinely unpredictable and many people write him off.  He probably won’t win Wimbledon, but he should be expected to do reasonably well.

Lleyton Hewitt Who would have thought that Hewitt would have a Wimbledon title but not an Australian Open title?  For whatever reason, Hewitt seems to know how to play on grass.  Last year, Hewitt reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon and pushed Roddick to five sets.  This year, the often injury-prone Hewitt came back off a hip injury just after the Australian Open.  He finally beat Roger Federer after losing to him 15 times in a row, saving three break points at 4-all and winning the match in 3 sets.

Robin Soderling I don’t know why, but I get a feeling that Soderling should be able to do well on grass.  The man has just had unlucky draws for the last few years.  In 2009, he lost in the fourth round.  To Roger Federer.  In 2008, he lost in the second round.  To Roger Federer.  In 2007, he lost in 5 sets.  To Rafael Nadal.  In 2006, he lost in 5 sets.  To Tim Henman.  And if he had beaten Henman somehow?  He would have played Roger Federer.  The guy has a big serve, hits flat(-ish) off both sides.  Soderling might be happy to run into Rafa at Wimbledon, at least more so than on clay.

Dark Horses

Who else might have a chance?  Basically anyone with a big serve has a decent shot to go deep.  Of the dark horses, I’d put Sam Querrey at the top.  He just won Queen’s.  I’m still a little worried about his mental toughness, but he pulled out a few close matches.  I’d also put his doubles partner, John Isner, in this group.  It’s not entirely clear, however, how well Isner knows how to play on grass.  Querrey admitted that his big serve and forehand didn’t help him at Wimbledon in past years, and he’s just learning how to play on grass.

Beyond that, there are players like Feliciano Lopez, Michael Llodra, Benjamin Becker, Janko Tipsarevic, Denis Istomin, and Xavier Malisse.  Even rising star, Alex Dolgopolov is starting to make waves.  Can Ernests Gulbis play on the grass?  He, too, has a big serve, but he hasn’t played since fizzling out in the first round of the French.  Is he injured?

Will there be a Jurgen Melzer on grass this year, someone that comes out of nowhere to go deep?  Two years ago, that person was Rainer Schuettler who reached the semifinals of Queen’s this year.  Last year, veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero made the quarters.  How about Marcos Baghdatis?  He hasn’t played any of the grass tune-ups, but he reached the semifinals in 2006 and the quarterfinals the year after.

A few more hours, and the Wimbledon draw comes out, and we get a better idea of how things look.