About a month ago, entering into Roland Garros, all eyes were on Novak Djokovic. The streak was on. To tie John McEnroe, Djokovic had to reach the finals. He had two players retire on him (Hanescu, part of the way through and Fognini), but perhaps the lack of play left him vulnerable to the play of Roger Federer. To be fair, Djokovic struggles a bit more when the light isn’t good. It bothered him against del Potro and arguably it bothered him against Federer.
Once he lost to Federer, this huge scrutiny disappeared. He had only lost one match, but with it, everyone looked back to Federer and Nadal. Federer had to believe that his four set loss to Nadal, one where he played a few close sets, boded well for winning Wimbledon. Federer ran into a problem that has afflicted him at Wimbledon for the last few years.
His inability to break serve.
Last year, he broke serve only once against Tomas Berdych (despite several opportunities). He broke serve only once against Tsonga this year. Indeed, he had only one break point all match long. He broke serve once against Roddick in 2009. He broke Nadal only once in 2008.
So Federer lost to Tsonga. My feeling was Djokovic returns a lot better than Federer, and he plays less risky tennis than Federer. Despite Tsonga’s superior win-loss record, I felt Djokovic, with his recent win streak and his ability to play better in the Slams, he would beat Tsonga. For a while, Tsonga’s aggressiveness was working, but Djokovic managed to keep his nerve, secure the break, and take the first set. Once he had an easy second set, it was only a matter of time for Djokovic to take the match.
After rewatching the first set (I only saw a few games live), I noticed that Murray really didn’t have a great first set. Except for the one game he lost, Nadal was holding serve well. Indeed, in the game he got broken, Nadal missed a bunch of first serves. But at the time Murray won the first set and was doing well in the second, I thought he was in good rhythm, but it completely fell apart once Murray couldn’t engineer the break at 2-1 in the second.
I had predicted Nadal’s win only because Murray had yet to show he can play well in a Slam when it mattered most. Nadal, on the other hand, rarely plays bad tennis in the Slams, and even bad Nadal is still pretty good. He’s used to hitting corners all the time. Murray is not.
So I lean to Djokovic winning the final.
Let me review the reasons that favor Nadal first. Nadal is in his fifth Wimbledon final. He lost two to Federer, beat Federer once, and beat Berdych. He is in the finals again. Nadal has had a relatively solid Wimbledon. Muller played him close. del Potro took a set. Fish took a set. Murray took a set. Nadal hasn’t been dominant, but he’s played well when he’s had to.
By contrast, Djokovic had a shaky match against Baghdatis and Tomic befuddled him.
Grass is Djokovic’s worst surface, but he’s made two semis before, so it’s not like he’s bad on grass. However, it’s Nadal’s second best surface after clay.
However, I’m picking Djokovic primarily because of the Tsonga match. Djokovic needed to play better than he had been against either Tomic or Baghdatis. Tsonga made him run and he hits hard, and so this was the perfect semis for Djokovic to try to get his game back. Is Djokovic playing as well as he did in Australia? I don’t think so.
However, I think Djokovic desperately wants to win Wimbledon, and that his four consecutive wins over Nadal will give him confidence. Nadal has had a few weeks to think about how he might play Djokovic. I think Djokovic will be able to pressure Nadal’s serve. He won’t be nearly as aggressive as Murray (or at least, he’ll make fewer mistakes). He needs to up his game some to get some of those precision shots, but it is grass, and Nadal will make mistakes too.
The two keys will be how well each player serves and returns and whether Djokovic can be a bit more precise off the ground. I think he has to see the Tsonga match as positive in the right way. Djokovic didn’t look that solid when he beat Murray in Rome, but played really solid tennis to beat Nadal in the finals.
We’ll find out in two days!
