Let’s take a final look at the favorites and how they are doing coming into Wimbledon.
Roger Federer
Positives
- Won Wimbledon 6 times
- Best surface is grass
Negatives
- Lost to Lleyton Hewitt, his second loss on grass in almost 7 years
- Ranked number 2 behind Nadal
- Hasn’t won a tournament after the Australian Open
- Lost prior to the semifinals for first time in years
Conclusion: Roger isn’t coming into Wimbledon in top form. Even so, he did reach the finals of Halle, but Halle is a pretty weak grass court tournament, and he had beaten Hewitt 15 times in a row. Even so, Roger plays up for Slams and so most people will give him the benefit of the doubt.
Rafael Nadal
Positives
- Won 4 tournaments in a row starting at Monte Carlo and ending at the French Open
- Regained number 1 after winning the French
Negatives
- Lost early at Queen’s to Lopez, a man he hasn’t lost to since 2003
- Didn’t play any grass tournaments last year. May be rusty.
- Didn’t win a non-clay event after Rome last year (since Rome, all his titles have been on clay)
Conclusion: Rafael Nadal, of the top pros, looks the most solid of the bunch. Rafa struggled a little against Istomin and lost to Lopez, but he fights as well as anyone. However, he may be more vulnerable this year than most. At least, he’s healthy, and that’s worth something.
Andy Murray
Positives
- Plays well at Wimbledon
- Knows grass pretty well
- Trains well for tournaments
Negatives
- Has had zero title wins this year
- Had an indifferent season starting after the Australian Open until Monte Carlo
- Lost early to Mardy Fish in Queen’s
- Hasn’t shown top form since the Australian Open
Conclusion: Many players have learned to adapt to Murray’s style. Murray’s biggest weakness is first serve percentage and second serve speed. If he served 60% regularly with his current pace, he’d be in position to contend for many more titles. Hard to say what form Murray is in. He did improve his play tremendously from Monte Carlo to Rome, but it is a little disturbing that his form went off playing Queen’s. A big question mark.
Andy Roddick
Positives
- Wimbledon is his best surface
- He played well in Indian Wells and Miami
Negatives
- Roger Federer
- He hasn’t played many matches since Miami. Skipped all of the clay season prior to French. Lost in third round in Paris.
- Lost early to Dudi Sela at Queen’s
Conclusion: It’s difficult to predict Roddick’s form as well. Except for Rafael Nadal, Roddick has perhaps had the best (non-clay) season leading to Wimbledon. The one key is his serving. Roddick almost always serves well. But last year, both Murray and Roddick had good performances in Queen’s. Both had weak performances this year.
Novak Djokovic
Positives
- A steady performer on all surfaces. Reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and the French Open.
- Reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last year
Negatives
- Health issues have hurt him throughout the season. Faded badly against Tsonga in the Australian Open. Couldn’t close out Melzer at Wimbledon.
- Also lost early at Queen’s to Xavier Malisse
- Has yet to play really well this year. His best runs were in the clay season last year and post US Open tournaments
- Hired and fired Todd Martin. Seems to have affected his serve.
Conclusion: Much like Andy Murray, it’s difficult to say where Novak Djokovic is. At his best, he is a very tough customer. And yet, he’s had problems in the quarterfinals in the last two Slams, in matches he controlled.
Robin Soderling
Positives
- Has a big game that used to be considered well-suited for grass before his recent success on clay
- Has done well in two Slams and been a bit unlucky at Wimbledon, losing to top players over the years (lost to Federer in 2008, 2009, to Nadal in 2007, to Henman in 2006).
Negatives
- Still not clear how he will do on grass
Conclusion: Probably the top dark-horse heading into Wimbledon. Big serve, big off the ground. With a high seeding, this is Robin’s best chance to move deep at Wimbledon. But still unclear how far he can go.
Players in Good Form
Lleyton Hewitt won Queen’s. He hasn’t been in contention in Slams for a long time. But he did beat Roger Federer at Queen’s, and has played well at Wimbledon. Despite this, most people don’t think he has enough game to reach a final. In particular, he can be vulnerable to any of the top 4.
Sam Querrey might have a good Wimbledon. He does well in small tournaments and really benefited from top seeds falling left and right at Queen’s. There was some question to his mental toughness in Queen’s, but he played a few good tough matches to win Queen’s. Still, Queen’s and Wimbledon aren’t the same.
John Isner is another guy who has not fared well at Wimbledon. He’s only played once. But he has the kind of game that should work well on grass. With Ivo Karlovic out, he becomes the premier big server. Will the relatively low bounces bother Isner? Isner didn’t play any warmup tournaments prior to Wimbledon.
There are the group of players that did reasonably well on grass in the tuneups: Janko Tipsarevic, Michael Llodra, Sergiy Stakhovsky, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Mardy Fish is a bit of a wildcard. After upsetting Andy Murray, he played well to reach the finals of Queen’s. His confidence should be helped. On the other hand, James Blake reached the finals of Queen’s last year and lost early at Wimbledon. Feliciano Lopez has gone deep at Wimbledon before. Big serve and slice backhand. But does he have enough game to beat enough people? Lost somewhat early in Eastbourne.
Unlike Rafa’s form coming into the French, there’s no one that’s huge favored coming into Wimbledon based on form. As usual, because of their history of doing well in Slams, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal come into Wimbledon as favorites, and given the indifference in everyone else’s play, you might as well put them at the top again. Both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic come into Wimbledon shakier than in past years. Both have a lot to prove at Wimbledon, showing they can still play at the top of the game. Does Andy Roddick have a last hurrah in him?
