With only two weeks between the French Open and Wimbledon, there isn’t a lot of time to follow any trends. Most top pros only play one week and rest/prepare the other week. Tomas Berdych, who did so well at the French and Wimbledon, didn’t even bother playing during these two weeks.
Some years, the results mean something. Back in 1985, Boris Becker won his first tournament at Queen’s. He won his second a few weeks later at Wimbledon. Two years ago, Tommy Haas upset Novak Djokovic. He would do the same thing again at Wimbledon. Philipp Petzschner pushed Federer last year, and pushed Nadal at Wimbledon.
Other times, it doesn’t. Last year, Lleyton Hewitt upset Federer in the finals of Halle. He did get as far as his seeding allowed, which was a loss to Novak Djokovic. But, he didn’t pull the upset.
Let’s look at some of the folks people will point to as “favored”.
Rafael Nadal
Nadal lost in the quarterfinals of Queen’s for the second year in a row. Like last year, I feel Nadal was just pacing himself. He had no desire to play two more days. To be fair, Tsonga is a tough opponent, but to be broken three times in the third set? It’s rare for Nadal to lose “on purpose” or at least lose without giving full effort, but I think he knows that if he gives it his all all the time, he can harm his chances to win the titles that matter.
Nadal should be favored again to win Wimbledon, although grass isn’t his best surface (clay is, obviously). I do think Federer will think his chances are better, and Nadal is likely to be more vulnerable to bigger servers as he was last year.
I think he’s a little more vulnerable this year because everyone else is playing decently. This includes Djokovic, Federer, and Murray. I don’t know if I buy his “fatigue” excuse. I think, in any case, he’ll recover decently. It does open a question as to his readiness for Wimbledon, but Nadal rebounds as well as anyone from being down.
Roger Federer
After Rafael Nadal, you have to look at Roger Federer who has won Wimbledon so many times. I believe he’ll look at the French as a positive experience. Sure, he lost to Nadal, again. But Nadal could use his spin and the court to his advantage. Federer’s serve will be more effective. The high looper to the Fed backhand should be less effective. Federer is still playing well enough to beat most players.
Still, Federer has to manage other players that are stronger than usual this year. Federer was injured last year, and he was coming off his worst French in a number of years. This year, he’s looking better than usual, but as the number 3, one wonders how he’ll fare.
I think he’ll almost prefer to play Rafa in the semifinals.
Novak Djokovic
Most people don’t consider Djokovic a grass player. But he’s so good on so many surfaces. He’s also a two-time semifinalist. But his second round loss to Safin a few years ago, and his loss to Haas two years ago makes him seem worse on grass. The fact is, he’s no worse on this surface than other surfaces, or at least, not much worse. Let’s face it, Djokovic has only been in 3 Slam finals.
This means he’s been mostly making quarterfinals and semifinals on all surfaces, and that includes Wimbledon.
Djokovic decided to skip Queen’s this year. Assuming he isn’t injured, his chances should be good to make a deep run.
Andy Murray
Who thought a guy who just twisted his ankle with a partial tendon tear could recover so quickly? Or how a “pusher” could even contend at Wimbledon. I think the reason Murray has done so well at Wimbledon is that he understands grass better than most. Also, his serve usually perks up on grass. He gets a lot more free points off serve. He can use his slice, he can return well. He deals with power players well like Querrey or Karlovic.
Murray has been the most consistent at Wimbledon. He reached the quarters in 2008, and the semis in 2009 and 2010.
Today, he had a superb game against Andy Roddick. So he has to feel pretty good about his game. The question is whether he can make a breakthrough. He needs to play his best game deep in a Slam, and he has rarely done that.
Best of the Rest
I think you have to look at the big games. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick. Wimbledon does tend to holds to form more than the other Slams with fewer surprises. Last year, Berdych was the surprise. The likelihood is he won’t find his game, but grass seems to be better for Berdych than clay since he can keep the points shorter. The year before, Tommy Haas made it to the semis.
Another interesting possibility is Juan Martin del Potro, but del Potro is weakest on grass. Still, he has all the elements to play well on grass. Robin Soderling is also another danger player. He has lost to Federer a fair bit on grass, so he’s hoping to be in someone else’s part of the draw.
I think it’s a bit hard to call Wimbledon now, so I’ll wait until the draw is out.
