For all of Federer’s troubles since 2008, he showed an amazing consistency in Slams.  By the end of this year’s Australian Open, he had reached his 23rd straight Slam semifinal.  He had reached his eighth straight Slam final.  He had reached 18 of his last 19 Slam finals.  This is an imperious record, showing a level of consistency that no player might ever match.

And yet, despite winning the Australian Open to start the year, Roger Federer had been playing inconsistent tennis for 2010.

A Look Back

Halle

Roger Federer lost to Lleyton Hewitt in the finals.  Federer hadn’t lost on grass (outside of Nadal in 2008) since 2003.  He had beaten Hewitt 15 times in a row and hadn’t lost to Hewitt since 2003.  Federer had 0-40 on Hewitt’s serve in the second set, but Hewitt won that game and then took the second set in a tiebreak.

French Open

Roger Federer lost to Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals.  There were two records broken.  Roger’s streak of 23 straight Slam semifinals was at a halt.  He also had a 12-0 record over Soderling.  Soderling had close matches against Federer, including a tight 3-setter in 2005 Halle, so he felt he was due.  Even so, 12-0 is some record.

Estoril

Federer lost in the semifinals of Estoril to Montanes.  Federer had a 3-0 record against Montanes.  Montanes rank was around 30.  There are about half a dozen Spaniards ahead of him in the rankings.  Estoril had a weak field.  Federer blamed the loss on the slow, wet clay and said his form would return in Madrid (it did, but even so).

Rome

Gulbis beat Federer in the 2nd round (Fed had a bye in the first round).  Federer has played Gulbis twice in 2010 prior to his.  Both times, Gulbis pushed him to 3 sets, but lost.  In Rome, Gulbis lost his serve when serving for the match, but then broke Federer in the next game and served it out.

Miami

Federer lost to Tomas Berdych in the fourth round after holding a match point.  Federer had beaten Berdych eight times in a row.  He lost to Berdych in the 2004 Olympics.

Indian Wells

Federer lost to Marcos Baghdatis in the third round.  Prior to that, Federer had a 6-0 record over Baghdatis, dating back to 2004.

ATP World Tour Finals 2009

Federer loses in the semifinals to Nikolay Davydenko.  Federer had a 12-0 record against Davydenko.  Davydenko would beat Federer again in Doha.

Paris 2009

Federer loses to Julien Benneteau in the 2nd round (first round bye).  He had a 2-0 record over Benneteau.  And c’mon, it’s Julien Benneteau.

US Open 2009

Federer loses to Juan Martin del Potro.  Up to then, he had a 6-0 record.  Federer would lose to del Potro again during the round robin phase of the ATP World Tour Finals.

What’s Going On?

It was especially notable, in 2010, that Roger Federer began losing to players that he had never lost to before.  Some of this seemed like he was avoiding Rafael Nadal, but it even happened in relatively small tournaments, like Estoril and Halle, tournaments that Rafa wasn’t even entered in.

Federer kept saying that things were OK, there were no problems.  He finally said that there was a problem, shortly after a loss to Tomas Berdych.  Federer didn’t want to believe that players were passing him by, so he offered that up, perhaps to soften the blow to his ego.

When Ivan Lendl started to fade, his back started to bother him.  Lendl was famous for moving to his right, and hitting a running down-the-line forehand.  But when he got older, he was having troubles reaching this shot, and he was no longer as effective.  Of top pros, Federer has generally been careful to avoid overplaying.  He had a back issue in early 2009 and took time off then.

One has to admit that Roger Federer mishits both forehands and backhands more than he used to.  Before Madrid this year, Federer would go for the lines and miss and miss and miss.  In Madrid, he looked better, but that may be because he chose not to go for winners.  Federer’s never been the kind of guy to beat you by being more consistent.  He doesn’t want to play like Nadal or even Djokovic.  Federer seems to feel he has to keep going for big shots, and if he misses, he misses.  But when Federer was playing in his heyday, he didn’t miss in these long rallies.

Remember the top servers?  Pete Sampras, Boris Becker, Ivan Lendl, John McEnroe.  When they faced match point, they would somehow serve an ace.  I would love to see Roger Federer’s first serve percentage at break point down.  It seems like it’s under 50%.  He just never seems to serve an ace or even a first serve at break points, which is particularly odd for a player as good as Federer.

Federer’s play was starting to be erratic in 2008.  Federer had mono in early 2008, but still reached the semifinals of the Australian Open.  He got demolished at the French, but looked really good at Wimbledon, but lost to Rafa in 5 sets.  Federer went to the Olympics, lost to James Blake, but teamed up with Stanislas Wawrinka to win the doubles gold, beating the Bryan brothers en route.  Federer was inspired by this, and won the US Open over Andy Murray, who had his first great victory, a semifinal win over Rafael Nadal, a match that was interrupted by rain.

Although 2009 was a better year for Roger Federer–he won the French Open for the first time, then won Wimbledon, Roger Federer still found himself shanking balls from time to time.  But, he still managed to win two Masters 1000 events (Madrid and Cincinnati).  In Madrid, he beat Rafa, and in Cincinnati, he beat Murray and Djokovic and would beat Djokovic in the semis of the US Open.  He came agonizingly close to winning 3 of 4 Slams.  When serving for a 2 set to 0 lead over del Potro, Federer approached several times to the del Potro forehand and paid the price, getting broken and losing the set.  Although he won the third set, he lost in 5 sets.  Had he aimed those shots to the del Potro backhand, he might have secured the set, and the del Potro might have faded in straight sets.

Think of all of Roger’s contemporaries.  David Nalbandian is struggling to play.  Juan Carlos Ferrero had a decent early part of the year, but has otherwise not been that relevant in years.  Marat Safin retired.  Lleyton Hewitt still tries hard, but lacks top 10 talent.  Only Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko are still playing well.

Roger has had 2-3 years to get his groundstrokes nice and smooth, and yet, he still shanks.  For a guy who is supposed to have some of the nicest strokes ever, why does everyone else have far fewer mishits.  You don’t see Djokovic mishitting that badly, nor Nadal.  Perhaps Soderling is the closest to Federer, and it may be because Soderling also hits his shots big, and when you hit that big, you take more risk missing.

Roger Federer has won one tournament this year: the Australian Open.  In 2009, he won four titles: the French Open, Wimbledon, Madrid, and Cincinnati.  But at least in 2009, he had only two early losses: one to Julien Benneteau (the only unusual loss), one to Stanislas Wawrinka in Rome.  Otherwise, he was mostly reaching semifinals and finals the entire year.  In 2010, Federer wasn’t even doing that.

Federer lost early in Indian Wells, Miami, and Rome.

Some will say that people counted Federer out in 2008 when he lost to Rafa at Wimbledon.  But he only had two early losses that year, one to Andy Murray in Dubai (one of Murray’s good early wins) and one to Gilles Simon (in Toronto).  Otherwise, he reached the quarterfinals or better in pretty much every tournament.  And, he won Estoril and Halle.  Of course, Federer would take an Australian win (which he lost in 2008) over wins in Estoril and Halle.  They point out how he came back to win the US Open and salvage his year.

Federer seems like he has a game that can continue to win.  If he played like he used to, he probably would.  But since this is the second year (next to 2008) where Roger has looked less than Roger-like, one has to wonder if Roger can make another comeback.  Can he be like Nadal?

Nadal is, quite crazily, a comeback king.  Every time it looks like Nadal is fading, he takes some time off, comes back stronger than ever.  Nadal struggled for a year from the French Open to Miami, but then went on a tear winning three Masters 1000 and this year’s French.  Each year, he would fade by the US Open, but reach Australia looking good.  How does he do this?  Even when Federer comes back off rest, he never seems as good as Nadal does when he returns (outside of Nadal’s return at Montreal last year, and even then, he did all right).

For now, I think people will think Federer can come back, but each time it happens, people wonder.