When Wimbledon started, there were a handful of questions that tennis experts were hoping would get answered from the tournament.

Roger Federer had just lost, for the first time, to Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals.  Up until then, he had been to 23 straight semifinals, a record that lasted nearly 6 years.  Just as impressive, Roger Federer had been to every final since the French Open in 2008.  That was 8 Slams in a row.  Soderling had reached his second consecutive French Open final, but found his power game unable to make a dent in Nadal’s game.

Many felt that clay was still Roger’s weakest surface and although he had lost early in the French, much earlier than he had lost in years, that grass would come back and save him.  Roger decided to play Halle again this year.  He had skipped Halle the year before after he won his first French Open over Robin Soderling.  There were two grass events the week after the French: Queen’s and Halle.  Although both were ATP 250 events, Queen’s almost always had the better field.  This year, that field included Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, and Novak Djokovic, 3 of the top 4 players in the world.

Roger plays few ATP 250 events which are at the bottom of the ATP tournament pecking order.  The three he picks the most often are Halle and Estoril and Doha, each of these played shortly before a Slam.  He lost in the semifinals at Estoril, but promised his game would return at Madrid where the clay was faster, and Roger reached the finals of Madrid where he lost to Nadal (again), but at least, it was his best performance on clay in a while, and there was hope that Federer might reach the finals once again and be able to beat his rival, Nadal.

When that didn’t happen, Roger went off to grass at Halle.  This change of venue had often done Roger a lot of good, especially when things hadn’t gone so well on the clay of Paris.  When Roger lost to Rafa in 2008, a straight-set beatdown, he headed to Halle and won the tournament without dropping a set.  He reached the finals of Wimbledon, and although he lost, Roger and Rafa had played what many thought was the best Wimbledon final ever.  History had shown that Roger could lose at the French but win, or at least, contend for Wimbledon.

But a strange thing happened in Halle.  Roger made the finals, as he was expected to.  He would face a rival he had played for the better part of a decade in Lleyton Hewitt, but a rival that was usually just a punching bag to Roger.  Once, Lleyton Hewitt made Roger’s life difficult.  Roger knew Hewitt was a better baseliner than he was, and if he wanted to become number 1, he had to beef up his game, so he could hang with Lleyton.  But once he had made a transformation to his game, this rivalry had become lopsided.

Hewitt was basically Jimmy Connors combined with Michael Chang.  He had speed, he had heart, but he also had a game that was more 1990s and as the modern game would evolve to a play more like Roger Federer, Hewitt would struggle after his initial success.  His intensity would take him to two Slam wins, but by 2006, he was no longer contending for Slam titles, and struggled to stay in the top 10, with various injuries forcing him to take time off.

Hewitt had gone into Halle for the first time, shortly after coming back from another hip surgery, playing better tennis than ever.  The year before, he reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and nearly derailed Andy Roddick en route to the finals, taking Roddick to five sets.  And here Hewitt was, facing Roger, his long-time rival, a man he had, nonetheless, not beaten in his last 15 attempts.  And he found himself down 0-40, a set down and deep in the second set.  If Hewitt were to lose any of the next 3 points, Federer would break, then serve for the match.  Just like he had so many times before.

Hewitt did save all three break points, and then he held, and the two went to tiebreak, where Federer, well, lost.  And by the third set, Hewitt was able to muster another break, and Federer has, amazingly enough, lost to Hewitt.

But again, Roger assured us that all was fine.  He had some match practice.  He’d be ready for Wimbledon.  And because he had done so well at Wimbledon, because he had won even when his game wasn’t at his best, we believed him.  We believed him when he said his game was still working in 2008, even though he had lost in the French, lost at Wimbledon, lost early in Masters 1000 events in the summer, even failed to win Olympic gold in singles.  And, then, he won the US Open to salvage his year, and he told us “I told you so!”.

But Roger, it seems, wasn’t fine.  At the French, Roger lost to Robin Soderling, whose big game had given Rafa trouble before.  Roger had never lost to Soderling except at an exhibition earlier in the year.  And yet, Soderling had always kept matches close and felt he was due for a win.  That win came in the quarterfinals.

At Wimbledon, Roger almost didn’t make it out of the first round.  He was down two sets to love, triple break point down to Alejandro Falla.  Federer dug himself out of that hole, broke in the next game, and took set 3, only to find himself a break down early in the fourth set, and needed to break Falla again, which he did just as Falla was trying to serve out the set.  Federer would win that set in a tiebreak, then steamroll to a 6-0 fifth set win.

His troubles weren’t over.  Roger Federer played qualifier Ilija Bozoljac, whose two hands on both sides, pushed Roger again.  Federer won in four sets, but it was a surprise for someone that had won so many Wimbledons to struggle this much.  Federer would win two easy matches, one over Clement and one over Melzer, both players that were older than Roger.  And, then, he faced Tomas Berdych.

Berdych denied Federer an Olympic medal back in 2004 in Athens.  Back then, Berdych was brand new, only 18 years old, and ranked in the 70s.  Federer lost to Berdych in the second round.  Since then, Federer had not lost to Berdych, even though he gave Federer quite the scare in 2009 in the fourth round of the Australian Open, pushing him to five sets in the fourth round.

But, like Soderling, Berdych was able to push Roger around, and in four sets, Berdych found himself as the victor, eliminating Roger from a Slam at the earliest point since, well, four weeks earlier when Soderling eliminated Roger in the quarterfinals.  Roger wasn’t entirely grateful.  He didn’t give credit to Berdych’s win, instead pointing out that his back and leg were bothering him, and this prevented him from playing his best.

Roger has often spun losses in this fashion.  I lost to Hewitt, but I’ll be ready for Wimbledon.  It was just a warmup tournament.  I lost to Montanes, but I’ll be better at Madrid.  Perhaps this is Roger’s way to deny his increasing age.  Ivan Lendl had to retire when his back pain become so severe, it left him a shell of a man.  That injury bothered him for the better part of a decade and a half, and only recently has Lendl recovered sufficiently to train again and play again.  For a long time, Roger was at the top, reaching final after final, and then he had been almost unbeatable on grass, and now, he’s lost early at the French and lost early at Wimbledon, and one wonders how much longer he can continue to play at a high level.

Perhaps one player that can feel what Roger is going through now, at least, in part, is Rafael Nadal.

A year ago, Rafael Nadal was at a low point in his career.  He had lost to Robin Soderling in the fourth round of the French Open, the first time he had lost at Roland Garros since he turned pro.  Much like Roger Federer, Nadal pointed out the cause of his loss: knee tendinitis.  He wasn’t ready to say that Soderling actually beat him.  Nadal had to skip Wimbledon to recover, and his game was not quite back to normal for nearly a year as he failed to win a tournament until Monte Carlo this year.

Rafael Nadal came into Wimbledon as a favorite.  He had a successful French Open, and many hoped he would rekindle a rivalry with Roger Federer that had defined tennis for the past half decade.  Still, he had been given a draw that seemed to pose trouble.  He would face potential talent, Kei Nishikori.  He then faced Robin Haase (instead of James Blake) who pushed him to 5 sets, then Philipp Petzchner, who reached the semifinals of Halle, who also pushed him to 5 sets, and many wondered if Nadal was really ready to win Wimbledon.

He would beat Mathieu easily to set up a rematch against Robin Soderling.  When Soderling was up 5-0 in the first set, it seemed he had a chance to win.  But Rafa won 3 games in that first set, and that sparked him, as much as a bad call early in the second set when Soderling challenged an out call, won the challenge, and the umpire said Rafa didn’t have a chance to win the point, when he had actually tapped the ball.  That anger fueled a hold and then, Nadal took over the match.

Rafa would then play his rival, Andy Murray in the semifinals, and although Murray would serve well and play aggressive tennis, he wouldn’t take advantage of the opportunities opened to him, including set point in a tiebreak in the second set.  It seemed every point that Murray needed, Nadal would get.  In the finals, some had hoped that Tomas Berdych would use his power to keep the match even.  Instead, Berdych found it hard to return Nadal’s serve for nearly the entire match.  Even when he had his chances, especially early in the second set, Nadal kept fighting off break point after break point.  Nadal so rarely makes silly errors that this makes him especially difficult to play.

When Rafa secured his second Wimbledon, the main thought most experts had was “Who can stop Nadal?”.  At the end of the year, there were a handful of players that could give Nadal trouble, most notably, Juan Martin del Potro, Novak Djokovic, and Nikolay Davydenko.  del Potro has been off tour since right after Indian Wells and Djokovic still is searching for his game, and Davydenko is having to rebuild his game as well.  He took quite a break to recover from a broken wrist.

Along with Rafa and Roger, there were question marks for both Djokovic and Murray.  Djokovic had made two fairly major changes.  At the start of 2009, Djokovic opted to sign with Head, having been with Wilson for a while.  He seemed to have difficulty adjusting to his new racquet especially at the Australian Open.  Nevertheless, he still reached the quarterfinals in 2009, but retired to Andy Roddick.  By the time the clay season of 2009 heated up, Djokovic was starting to play well again, and he kept meeting Rafael Nadal.  They met three times: at Monte Carlo, at Rome, and at Madrid.  At the Madrid semifinals, Nadal and Djokovic played a multi-hour match.  Djokovic had match points in the third set, but Nadal found a way to win.  But, much like the Isner-Mahut match, it was hard to say either won.  Although Nadal would give Federer a difficult time in the finals, he would end up losing to Soderling at the French.

Djokovic did well after the US Open as well, beating Nadal twice, beating Davydenko once.  He struggled at the ATP World Tour Finals, but seemed to end the year well.  At the Australian, Djokovic reached the quarterfinals but faded badly after a two set to none lead over Tsonga.  Djokovic would win only one tournament from that point to the end of the French Open, namely, Dubai.  He would lose to Ljubicic at Indian Wells and to Olivier Rochus at Miami.  Then, he’d lose to Verdasco easily in Monte Carlo, and then lose to him in a close one in Rome.  He would blame allergies for losing at his home tournament in Belgrade, and skip Madrid.  Djokovic would reach the quarterfinals, but much like he did in Melbourne, he would get two sets to love up, then lose the third set easily.  Although he’d regain some confidence to push it to a fifth set, he lacked enough firepower to make short work of Melzer, and it was Melzer that won, heading to his first ever Grand Slam semi.

Djokovic would struggle in his first round against Olivier Rochus, the man that beat him in the second round at Miami.  He was pushed to five sets.  Down a break in the fifth set, Djokovic found some reserves and took 6 games in a row.  He had an easy match against hard-serving Taylor Dent.  He took out Montanes a bit easier than most expected.  Then, in the fourth round, he faced Lleyton Hewitt.  Fresh off his win over Federer at Halle, many felt that Hewitt’s toughness would be enough for him to beat Djokovic, despite Djokovic’s 3-1 record over Hewitt including 2 wins on grass.  Many felt, Djokovic wasn’t mentally tough enough to win.  They thought he’d fold like an origami bird against Hewitt.  And for a brief moment, in the third set, when Djokovic complained about tummy issues, Djokovic almost did that.  He gave up the third set.  But then, he broke to start the third, and although he gave the break back, Hewitt returned the favor late in the fourth set, and Djokovic reached the semifinals.

Despite his win over Hewitt, Djokovic didn’t fare so well against Berdych.  Like he did against Federer, Berdych was able to pressure Djokovic, but it didn’t help that Djokovic seemed nervous the first set or so, missing shots he’d ordinarily make.  By the time Djokovic was starting to play better, Berdych was also feeling comfortable in the match.  Berdych took an early lead, 6-2, in the second set tiebreak, but Djokovic would claw his way even, and they’d go back and forth until serving 7-8 down, Djokovic would double-fault to give Berdych the second set.

The third set stayed close as well.  But at 3-4 down, Djokovic would double-fault twice, and give the break to Berdych, who would then serve out the match.

Clearly Djokovic is talented enough to get deep into Slams, but it’s been a while since Djokovic reached a Slam final.  The last time he reached a final was also the second time he reached, back in the 2008 Australian Open when he upset Roger Federer in the semifinal.  He faced Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who had surprisingly worked his way through the draw, including a surprise upset of Rafael Nadal in the semifinal.  At the French, he lost to Nadal in the semifinals.  At Wimbledon, he’d lose to Marat Safin in the second round.  At the US Open, he lost to Federer in the semifinals.

Djokovic lost in the 2009 Australian Open to Roddick in the quarterfinals, having to retire.  At the French Open, he lost in the third round to Philipp Kohlschreiber.  At Wimbledon, he lost to Tommy Haas in the quarterfinals.  At the US Open, he lost to Roger Federer in the semifinals.

In 2010, Djokovic lost in the Australian Open to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals, to Jurgen Melzer in the French Open quarterfinals, and to Berdych in the Wimbledon semifinals.

After Wimbledon, it’s somewhat difficult to say where Djokovic is.  He had some issues with his coaching staff, hiring Todd Martin around the US Open of last year, and then firing him shortly before the clay season.  Djokovic doens’t seem to be fully back, but he’s usually talented enough to get to the quarterfinals with little trouble.

Like Djokovic, Andy Murray came into Wimbledon with questions.  For the first time in a few years, Murray came into Wimbledon without a title.  He started off the year looking as good as he ever has.  He opted to play the Hopman Cup, which is a Davis Cup style exhibition, leading up to the Australian Open.  Although Britain reached the finals, it was Murray’s loss to Robredo that caused the loss to Spain (Laura Robson won her match, surprisingly).  Even so, Murray had a great Australian Open and reached his second Slam final.  Alas, Murray didn’t choose to attack Federer right away, and got down a set, then two sets quickly.  In the third set, he played a protracted tiebreak against Federer, but much like the Nadal match, Murray couldn’t put away the points at the critical times, and so Federer eventually won in straight sets.

Murray then stepped away from tennis.  He said he had been playing non-stop for nearly a month, and wanted a break.  Murray seemed despondent.  He skipped Marseille, to the criticism of the tournament director, who wanted Murray to be banned from other tournaments for failing to meet his obligations.  He went to Dubai, but it was half-hearted, as he lost in 3 sets to Janko Tipsarevic.  He claimed he was using that match for practice.  He lost to Soderling in Indian Wells, then to Mardy Fish in Miami, tournaments he had done well at the previous year.  Murray lost easily at Monte Carlo.

Finally, Murray started to train hard.  He would lose to Ferrer twice, but claim that Ferrer’s expertise on clay as the problem, and that his current play was good enough to beat good players.  He would get past Richard Gasquet in five sets and beat a tough Marcos Baghdatis, but lose to a hot Tomas Berdych at the French.

Many wondered, with such a resume, whether Murray would make a deep run at Wimbledon or not.  Murray lost early to Mardy Fish at Queen’s in a tournament that he won the year before.  Murray must have felt more practice would do him more good than more match play.  When the draw came out, it looked very friendly for Murray.  Even Sam Querrey, who won Queen’s, didn’t pose a huge challenge for Murray.  Murray beat Tsonga to reach the semifinals for the second year in a row, but lost to Nadal as he did two years earlier in the quarterfinals.

Although both Murray and Djokovic reached the semifinals, two things seemed clear.  First, Murray played better between the two of them.  Djokovic seemed nervous against Berdych.  He did almost get his act together, but Berdych held tight.  Djokovic’s serve, like some of the women (most notably, Sharapova), seems to still be causing him problems, especially with double faults.  Second, neither Djokovic nor Murray seemed quite ready to beat Nadal.  With Federer playing the way he is, he’ll need to figure out how to come back, or admit to himself that maybe he’s lost a step or two, and is no longer the player he used to be.

Looking at the top 4 players, the conclusion, moments after Wimbledon has ended is:

Rafael Nadal Can anyone beat him?  His knees are still bothering him, but he is scheduling treatment.  We head into the hard court season which has normally been Nadal’s problem, both with the surface, and with the number of players that play their best on hard courts.  What a difference two months have made for Nadal.  Prior to the clay season, Nadal had not won a tournament in nearly a year.  Then, he won 3 Masters 1000 events on clay, the French Open, and Wimbledon.

As people point out how awesome Nadal looks, they should also realize that two players that have troubled Nadal, del Potro and Davydenko, were hardly factors in either the French or Wimbledon, and both consider hard courts their best surface.  Even so, the common wisdom is that Nadal is moving into a dominant number 1, and looks to win a raft of Slams.

Roger Federer Federer’s 2010 is looking a lot like 2008, and even 2008 was a much better year for Roger.  Roger reached the finals of 3 of 4 Slams (winning 1) and reached the semis of the Australian Open.  He reached the final of Monte Carlo and Hamburg.  He won Estoril and Halle.   He reached the semis of Indian Wells and the quarterfinals of Miami.  Despite early losses in tournaments in 2008, it still looks like a better year than 2010.  Federer won one tournament this year, and has reached only two other finals (Madrid and Halle).  He’s not reached the semifinals of two consecutive Slams.

People are now actively wondering if Roger Federer can come back.  Nadal has, surprisingly, answered those questions.  In the past, people thought Nadal would retire early.  Now, merely a year after it looked like Nadal was done for, he seems better than ever with questions about his knees in the past, or at least, under some control.  Federer said that he was injured.  Is this something “temporary” like Nadal or is it something that might be career-ending.  Federer, for his part, keeps saying he’ll play a lot longer.  This is starting to sound delusional.  Is it?

Clearly, the biggest questions out of the top players point to Roger Federer.  Can he come back?  Even as he’s shown resilience, he doesn’t look like the same player that dominated tournaments in 2006.  He now seems more like Serena or Venus, opting to

Novak Djokovic For a guy this talented, Djokovic has had an indifferent year.  Last year, he played up and down, but he played up as much as he played down.  Even so, Djokovic has managed to reach number 2 in the world twice (once after the Australian Open and once again after Wimbledon).  As up and down as Djokovic is, he still goes deep in Slams.  In the last 4 Slams, Djokovic has reached two Slam semifinals and two Slam quarterfinals.

How is he ahead of Federer?  First, he’s barely ahead of Federer in the rankings.  Second, Federer only won 4 tournaments in 2009: the French Open, Wimbledon, Madrid, and Cincinnati.   Of those four wins, 3 have already dropped off his ranking points.  Although Federer has done better in the last 4 Slams than Djokovic, Djokovic won more tournaments than anyone last year, and those titles are still part of his rankings since many occurred late in the year.  Federer won no tournaments after Cincinnati.

Djokovic plays well on hard courts, and he is now under some pressure to get back to that level again, but right now, despite a Wimbledon semi, people still have question marks for Djokovic.

Andy Murray Like Djokovic, Murray has had a down year.  At this point in 2009, Murray had won four tournaments: Doha, Rotterdam, Miami, and Queen’s.  He had been in the finals at Indian Wells.  This year, Murray has not won any tournaments.  He’s only been in one finals: the Australian Open.  He’s only been in one semifinals: Wimbledon.  Even so, Murray seems like he’s playing better than Djokovic, only because there’s that “what if” for Djokovic.  What if his health affects him?  In a way, Djokovic has been quite unlucky to have this health issue.  If his health issues were better, he’d probably have won another Slam by now, at the very least, he would have reached two more Slam semifinals (this year’s Australian and French Open).

The big question mark for Murray is his motivation.  Shortly after the Australian, he went into a funk.  Will he do the same now?  He, like many top pros, will take a month off and not play until Toronto, in early August.  Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer are expected to return then.  Given the negative comments Murray received due to his play after the Australian, it seems likely (if he can control it) that he won’t regress to the despondent play.  There were some rumors that Murray might ditch his coaching staff, though that seems unlikely in the middle of a season.

And what about the rest?  It’s difficult to assess the rest of the field.  Andy Roddick had hoped to use Wimbledon as a springboard for more success.  He started off the year well at Indian Wells and Miami, but since then, he hasn’t played nearly as well.  Last year, during the hard court season, Roddick found himself losing to other Americans including Sam Querrey and John Isner.  And despite his better heat management skills, he still lost to Juan Martin del Potro at Washington DC.

Nikolay Davydenko was playing some of the best tennis of his life at the end of 2009 and the start of 2010.  Unfortunately, much like 2009, Davydenko was hurt early in the year.  Last year, he was able to play a clay court event and the French Open, reaching the quarterfinals.  This year, he returned only shortly before Wimbledon and lost early to Daniel Brands.  Davydenko plays well on hard courts, so he has about 2 months to get ready for the US Open.  He’s one of the few players that can, in theory, beat Nadal and Federer.  He pulled the trifecta of beating Nadal, Federer, and del Potro en route to winning the ATP World Tour Finals.

Verdasco had a very good clay season, but ended up playing way too much tennis.  It seemed to adversely affect him at both the French and Wimbledon.  Verdasco will be looking to recover by the US Open, but one wonders if he plays smart enough ball to take that next step.

Soderling did pretty well at the French (repeat final appearance) and reached the Wimbledon quarters.  He continues to show that he can go reasonably deep in Slams.

Marin Cilic had a very good Australian Open.  Many thought he’d be the breakout star of 2010, but since then, he’s not played particularly well.  Hard courts are his favorite surface.  The question is whether he can recover and play well again.

Rafael Nadal said during post-match interviews, that his main goal is to win the US Open.  He is only one major from completing a career Slam, and if he does win the US Open, it will be the first time that’s he’s won a small Slam (3 of 4 Slams in a calendar year).  Nadal opted to skip Davis Cup play (which usually occurs the week after Wimbledon) so he could get more knee treatment.  As it is, Spain has so many good players that they can afford to do without him and still win.

There’s a lot that can happen between now and the US Open, but as Wimbledon wraps up, the thinking is Rafa is back, Roger is questionable, Murray might be on the way back, question marks for Djokovic, Davydenko, Roddick, etc.