They don’t call Rafa the “King of Clay” for no reason.  He has maybe 20 losses on clay, and under 10 losses since he won his first French Open title in 2005.  It’s very hard to beat Rafa on clay.

Furthermore, it’s very hard to beat him if you’re not ranked in the top 40 or so.  He’s had losses to Federer and Djokovic.  Ferrero has beaten him too.

No one expected the 73rd ranked Horacio Zeballos to pull the upset of a lifetime.  Now, people will note that Nadal hasn’t played an official tournament since Wimbledon.  If there was a time to upset Nadal, it would be in the first tournament back when he’s still trying to get his bearings.  In the past, he’s returned during a hard court swing, and not worried about an early loss.

Zeballos was able to keep Nadal within his sights by a “Federer” strategy.  Federer often gets in close matches, but he pays attention to the stat that matters to him most: holds of serve.  Federer doesn’t worry as long as he doesn’t get broken.  Zeballos kept close with Nadal by not dropping serve in either of the first two sets using his wide left serve to good effect.  In the first set, Nadal had to save two break points while Zeballos didn’t face any break points.  In the second set, Nadal had no break points on his serve, while Zeballos had to save two break points.

Nadal took the first set in a tiebreak.  Zeballos had a 6-4 lead in the second set tiebreak, but then lost 2 more points to level it at 6-all.  Zeballos then took the next two points to take the second set.

Nadal appeared to have take control in the third set with a break, but Zeballos was able to break back.  From then on, it was close.  Zeballos had another chance to break at 4-3 up, but made a few mistakes, and let Rafa with the hold.  Zeballos served exceptionally well to hold to 5-4.  Zeballos then played an aggressive return game to get to 0-40 on Rafa’s serve with a nasty hook forehand to secure that triple breaker.  Finally, on match point, Rafa was drive wide to his forehand, decided to hit a big shot up the line, and netted it, giving Zeballos his second career title.

Commentators noted that Nadal has won 36 titiles while Zeballos has only won 27 clay court matches.  The man who vaguely resembles Xavier Malisse with a pony tail and the whip lefty forehand cried as he realized he did something so few others have done.