Once you get to Labor Day, you move from the obligatory early round matches to the business end of a Slam. Those that want to seriously make a run need to get to Labor Day, when the fourth round begins.
Let’s begin with a quick recap of what happened so far.
Among those coming in with good form, Marcos Baghdatis was the surprise exit losing to French veteran Arnaud Clement. The heat may have had something to do with it, or Baghdatis playing New Haven, or both. In either case, after a great summer, he had a quick exit.
Tomas Berdcyh was considered something of a dark horse threat, after his semifinal appearance at the French and his finalist appearance at Wimbledon, and yet, he got totally flustered playing a guy that attacks all the time in Michael Llodra. Had Llodra been ranked a little higher, the two would never have met in the first round, so Berdych was unlucky. Llodra, too, got unlucky in getting a migraine while doing well against Tommy Robredo, otherwise his chances were good.
Andy Roddick’s loss to Janko Tipsarevic was disappointing as well. He had reached the semifinals of Cincy, losing to Mardy Fish, and looked like he was mostly over his mono. However, Roddick’s style of playing steady, error-free tennis was not good enough to beat TIpsarevic. He’s used this style successfully, but he seems to lack confidence going for big shots, so you rarely see him do it. In a way, it’s also why Andy Murray lost.
Andy Murray losing early was the big shock. Really, Murray’s loss resembled Roddick’s loss with Wawrinka playing aggressive tennis. Murray didn’t seem to feel like he needed to engage Wawrinka in power tennis, and that hurt him. That and his inconsistency. He didn’t look nearly as steady as he did in Cincy, nor was he peppering his shots with finesse and drop shots. By the third and fourth set, his first serve percentage had dropped tremendously, and he wasn’t moving well, giving up loose games that he normally doesn’t lose.
The surprise of the tournament are the French and the Spanish. The Spaniards, in particular, have made it pretty deep in the tournament. Verdasco, for instance, must have realized that he played way too much before the French, which hurt his performance there and at Wimbledon. Verdasco cut back his play prior to the US Open and did not have great results heading in. But he was well-rested, and this helped him knock out one of the other hot players in the tournament, David Nalbandian. To be fair, Nalbandian did not look that good in his loss, making way too many errors.
OK, let’s get to the previews:
Nadal vs. Lopez Nadal came into the US Open playing unsteady tennis, making a tremendous number of unforced errors. I felt this was an anomaly and would be fixed by the US Open, which it has been. Nadal has also come in hitting as hard a serve as he ever has. He blamed his losses prior to the Open on being too aggressive. He started playing more conservative in the early rounds and that seems to have righted the ship, and he’s now back to playing more aggressive tennis.
Nadal lost to Lopez in Queen’s, but grass is the most likely place Lopez can win with his low slice backhand able to trouble Nadal. And, I felt Nadal wasn’t trying to win his match against Lopez, wanting more rest and practice before Wimbledon. Lopez has a big serve and a big forehand, but his backhand is a liability. Lopez will have to play perfect tennis to beat Nadal or even take a set off him. Lopez had a pretty friendly draw to get to this point, but I think this is it for Lopez and Nadal moves on.
Ferrer vs. Verdasco This is a hard call. The two have met 10 times, 9 of them on clay. They only played on hard courts once, in their first meeting in Chennai, which David Ferrer won. Ferrer won their last meeting on clay in Rome. Both these guys were expected to do well in the French Open. However, both lost earlier than expected: Ferrer to a resurgent Jurgen Melzer and Verdasco to hard-hitting Almagro. I’ll favor Verdasco, but he has to play well. Ferrer plays just steady enough and moves just well enough that if Verdasco isn’t striking the ball well, he’ll go down. Ferrer’s main weakness is he can be overpowered. It’s hard to do, by and large, but it can be done.
Wawrinka vs. Querrey These two last met in 2009 in Indian Wells. Wawrinka won in a third set tiebreak, 10-8. It’s also been their only meeting. Querrey is playing pretty well, actually. He’s kept a more positive outlook since losing in the first round of the French Open, and it’s lead to more wins. Querrey, unlike Murray, will attack more, mostly because he has to. Querrey, like Isner, uses a big serve to set up a big forehand. The only tough part is Wawrinka’s backhand. Querrey will hit hard inside out forehands to Wawa’s backhand. Wawrinka hadn’t played particularly well heading into the US Open, but he’s picked up his play. I expect this to be a tougher match for both players. I lean just a little to Querrey to win this.
Robredo vs. Youzhny Americans love to make fun of the French for “surrendering” in World War 2, often forgetting it was the French that helped the Americans out in the American Revolution and the one that gave us the Statue of Liberty. However, they didn’t do much to disabuse this reputation against Tommy Robredo. Robredo faced Benneteau in the second round who retired and faced Llodra in the third round, who retired. Robredo couldn’t be less in-form and have managed to eke his way to the fourth round. It’s difficult to say what form Robredo has, but one really has to favor Youzhny who has, at times, played well on clay and hard courts in the last 8 months or so. Robredo leads the head-to-head, but the two haven’t met in four years and one of Robredo’s win was 8 years ago. So gotta go with Youzhny.
Gasquet vs. Monfils This is another one that’s hard to predict. The two are tied 2-all in their head-to-head. They’ve met 3 times in Metz, a small tournament in France. The one time they met in a Slam, the 2007 Australian Open, Gasquet won in 4 sets. Gasquet has been having on-and-off good results. He had some solid results heading into the French Open, but wasn’t able to get past Andy Murray on clay. He has reached a few finals this year, admittedly in small tournaments, and mostly on clay, though he did reach the finals of Sydney prior to the Australian Open.
Monfils hasn’t won a title this year, but he has reached a final at Stuttgart (on clay). To be fair, Gasquet seems to have had the better year, though Monfils generally wins a few rounds in most tournaments he plays. I give the edge to Gasquet because he plays more offensive tennis, but this could be a pretty entertaining match.
Fish vs. Djokovic On paper, Djokovic wins this match. He has a 4-0 win-loss record over Fish. Fish’s best result was one of his first, when the two played each other in the 2007 US Open in the second round. Djokovic won in 4 sets, but needed to win 2 tiebreaks. Much will be made of Fish’s win streak, and that he’s playing his best tennis ever. He moves better than he has. He has a big serve. He can now chase down shots. And this match is being played in sun. But ever since Hurricane Earl rolled around, temperatures have been much milder, and so Djokovic should have a better chance of hanging in this match.
Although I think Fish has a pretty good chance to win this, I’m going to lean to Djokovic who will want a signature win in his favorite Slam.
Soderling vs. Montanes You’d think a guy that’s generally mentioned among the favorites in any Slam he enters would be talked about more. Everyone pointed to a potential quarterfinal showdown between Soderling and Federer, but American announcers have not said much, preferring to focus on Nadal, Federer, and the Americans. Meanwhile, Soderling, who didn’t have a great summer (losing to well-regarded players, but still), has played his way into the fourth round. He had a first round scare against the surprisingly hard hitting Haider-Maurer, but used his experience to let his opponent make errors. Since then, he’s not dropped a set.
The two have met 3 times, and Soderling leads 2-0. They’ve only played in Slams, twice in the French (they split wins) and once in last year’s opening round of the US Open. Montanes had a relatively friendly draw, getting a tough five setter in the first round, but then playing a wildcard in the second round, and having his opponent retire in the third round. I have to believe Soderling will be too much off the ground for Montanes and should head into the next round comfortably.
Melzer vs Federer These two go way back to the junior days, but despite having been on the tour for so long, the two only met for the first time at Wimbledon, and Federer won it easily. I don’t expect the results to be much different. Federer has been playing pretty solid, and generally plays well against players his age. Federer has yet to drop a set and although Melzer is capable, I expect Federer to roll in this match too.
Concluding Thoughts
Many thought Murray would contend for the US Open title, but now I’m beginning to think that Murray got hurt in Cincy. His straight sets win in the first two rounds was a bit of smoke and mirrors and that he reaggravated the injury against Wawrinka. Murray looked like he’d lose to Gulbis in Cincy and finally bowed out to Fish. He looked exhausted (oddly) and weary, and so while many people (including me) ignored this, it didn’t bode well for Murray.
This has opened up that entire section and means that one player out of (Sam Querrey, Stan Wawrinka, Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy Robredo) has a chance to go far. Youzhny is the highest ranked player of the bunch, but Querrey is hitting pretty well, and he might have a breakout US Open. Certainly, without Andy Murray, his chance of moving to the semifinals are pretty good. This isn’t to say Wawrinka and Youzhny, both similar players, might not do well too. However, Querrey has faced Almagro, and he plays much like these guys too (if a bit more erratic).
Nadal’s path to the semifinals appears easier. True, the Spaniards all play well, but Nadal has to feel ultra confident when he plays a fellow Spaniard. None of them really scare him. It’s very much like Rod Laver playing his fellow Aussies back in the 1960s. He felt good against all of them.
So, of the fourth round matches, I think Nadal, Federer, Youzhny, and Soderling should be fairly safe bets to win their matches. I lean to Djokovic over Fish. I believe Querrey-Wawrinka, Monfils-Gasquet, Ferrer-Verdasco are toss-up matches, although I slightly favor Querrey, Gasquet, and Verdasco in those matches.
