The US Open is now a week away.  There is technically one more tournament in the US Open Series: the Pilot Pen Classic in New Haven, Connecticut.  None of the top 6 players are slated to play which include Federer, Murray, Nadal, Djokovic, Roddick, and del Potro.

The highest ranked players that will play are Davydenko and Gilles Simon.

Most of the favorites are using the week off to prep up for the US Open.  With two weeks of intense play, the favorites are likely to take a day or two off to recover, then start training in earnest for the US Open.

Let’s rewind back to the French Open.  This will be instructive because what people thought about who would do well in the French did not exactly pan out.  Prior to the French, there were three Masters 1000 tournaments.  Recall Masters 1000 are tournaments that are just under the Grand Slams themselves.  Top players are basically required to play or they get 0 points.  It’s pretty strong incentive.

The three Masters 1000 tournaments were Monte Carlo (won by Nadal), Rome (won by Nadal), and Madrid (won by Federer).  Going into the French Open, everyone figured that Nadal was still the favorite.  He had never lost at the French, so it would be heresy to suggest that someone might take the title away from Nadal.

Let’s consider who his big rivals were.  Nadal played Djokovic three times in these tournaments and beat him three times.   The third time, they played in the semis of Madrid, and Djokovic played an incredibly close match, having match points in a third set tiebreak.  Nadal played outstanding tennis to take that victory.  But throughout that match, Nadal seemed a bit edgy.  He had complained about the tournament.  It was played in altitude.  He felt he couldn’t control the shots the way he wanted.

Although Federer beat Nadal in the finals of Madrid, Nadal was arguably weary compared to the fresher Federer.  And even though Federer won in straight sets, he was in danger of losing his break in the second set and who knows what might have happened then.  In other words, although Federer showed he could finally beat Nadal, it was a best of 3 set match, and Nadal had just played a very tough semis.  Could Federer really beat Nadal in a best of 5?

Nadal’s biggest rival was perhaps Novak Djokovic who could at least rally with Nadal, and looked much more evenly matched.  With Federer’s inconsistent 2008 and 2009, it was hard to tell whether Federer could play brilliant enough tennis to beat Nadal.  Still, there was a glimmer of hope.

So prior to the French, Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer seemed, on form, to be the guys to beat.  Andy Murray, for his part, did better on clay than he had in previous years, but in previous years, he played awful.  And del Potro wasn’t that much on the radar, though he did play better as the clay season moved on.

It came as a shock that Djokovic lost in the third round, and an even bigger shock that Nadal lost to Robin Soderling in the fourth round.  Indeed, few would have predicted that Andy Murray would get to the quarterfinals and make it further in the tournament than either Nadal or Djokovic.  It may be that the Madrid semis were so taxing to both Nadal and Djokovic that both suffered as a result.  Meanwhile, del Potro made it to the semifinals, his best showing in a Slam yet, and pushed Federer to the brink.

Let’s now fast forward to now and see where things stand with the top 6 players heading into the US Open.

Roger Federer. He’s the prohibitive favorite.  If he plays like he did in Cincinnati, he may be really tough.  Still, hard courts favor so many of the top players.  Djokovic, Murray, del Potro, and Roddick all believe that hard courts are their best surface.  Arguably, Federer likes it too, but he’s a better grass court player than hard court, mostly because his competition doesn’t play as well on grass.  But one only has to look back to Montreal where Federer gagged big time against Tsonga giving up a 5-1 lead to lose in a tiebreak.  Still, the best of 5 format has suited Roger who can play 2 bad sets but still recover.

Andy Murray. For the first time, Murray will enter the US Open as the number 2 seed.  Andy Murray has to hope that Nadal falls in Federer’s side of the draw, although Nadal is quite iffy at this point, but certainly, Murray would feel his chances are better against Djokovic than Nadal.  Murray has had a pretty good summer.  He won Montreal and he made the semis of Cincinnati.  Because Murray lacks the kind of power game of Federer or Nadal, he’s always seen as a suspect choice, like he can’t win the big one.  Even so, his record shows that he can play on hard courts, and you have to pick him at least until the semifinals.  Murray’s main concern is playing someone that can outhit him.  He’ll hope that the temperatures are hot and he can use his fitness and guile to take him far into the draw.

Rafael Nadal. Rafa has shown he can still beat most of the guys outside the top 10.  The real question is how he matches up anyone else in the top 6.  Rafa lost to del Potro in Montreal where he was broken three times in the second set, losing 6-1.  Rafa also lost to a very steady Djokovic.  Although hard courts are Rafa’s weakest surface, he’s even more vulnerable this year because he hasn’t had time to fully recover.  Indeed, his problem is the opposite of most years.  Normally, Rafa comes into the US Open pretty beaten up, and doesn’t have the stamina or consistency to win the US Open.  Last year’s semifinal run was his best run at the Open.  He’s never made the finals.  This year, he comes in with not enough practice.  The question is whether another week of practice will get him to where he needs to be.  There were promising signs that he was getting better, especially against Tomas Berdych, but his loss to Djokovic shows that he may not be ready to get to the final.  The only solace for Nadal is that he and Djokovic will be on opposite sides of the draw.

Novak Djokovic. As far as Slams go, Djokovic has had a mediocre year.  Compare this to 2007 when Djokovic made the semis of the French and Wimbledon, and the finals of the US Open, or to 2008 where he won in Australia, and made the semis of the French and the US Open.  This year, Djokovic lost in the quarterfinals of the Australian, in the third round of the French, and in the quarterfinals at the US Open.  He lost to Andy Roddick again in Montreal, before making the final at Cincinnati and defeating Rafael Nadal along the way.  Novak’s problems have generally been fitness.  Can he deal with the heat?  Ever since his debacle at last year’s US Open, Djokovic has kept a much lower profile, and this may be winning him some fans back who, hopefully for him, have a short memory.  Djokovic will be seen as a dark horse favorite mostly because he’s had such an up-and-down year.  Hard courts are his best surface and he’s looking to finally do really well at a Slam.  Can he do it?

Andy Roddick. Roddick came out of Wimbledon with newfound respect.  After having been beaten so many times by Federer, typically with lopsided scores, Roddick finally pushed Federer to the brink.  However, Federer showed incredible patience since his own serve was nearly as good as Roddick’s until Roddick finally wilted under the pressure.  Roddick was hoping to play a lot of the US Open Series matches, but was out three weeks due to injuries.  He skipped Indianapolis and Los Angeles which he had intended to play.  Roddick was hoping that playing early would give him an edge.  However, he lost twice to del Potro, once in Washington DC in the finals, and once again in Montreal in the semifinals.  Roddick then lost early in Cincinnati to Querrey in the second round.  Although his results were somewhat like 2008, Roddick felt better this year, probably because del Potro was unknown last year (he lost to del Potro in Los Angeles) and Troicki was even more unknown (he lost to him in DC).  del Potro is now a top 10 player and a dangerous one at that and Querrey had had a very good summer.  Can Roddick do well at the US Open?  He can, but it’s hard to pick him past the quarterfinals.

Juan Martin del Potro. Of the top 6 players, many people are now looking at del Potro has perhaps the second or third favorite behind Andy Murray.  Indeed, some might put him just behind Roger Federer.  del Potro won DC and beat Roddick in the finals.  He beat Roddick again in the semifinals of Montreal.  Folks like his huge serve and huge forehand which puts many players on their heels.  When del Potro played Andy Murray in the finals of Montreal, they played very tight.  Even so, Murray knew del Potro was struggling with fitness at the start of the second set.  He just needed to win the second set, and del Potro would be finished.  And he was.  del Potro dropped out of Cincinnati presumably to recover, and perhaps to do some fitness training.  This is del Potro’s one big weakness.  Although he’s a fighter, you can fight against the heat only so long.  Indeed, it’s one thing he shares with Djokovic, though Djokovic has presumably been working on fitness lately.

Going into the US Open, Federer is the overwhelming favorite (nearly overwhelming).  Then, it’s probably a toss-up between del Potro and Murray.  Then, Nadal and Djokovic.  Finally, Roddick.  The one player that’s played quite well this US Open Series is Sam Querrey, but his run is nowhere compared to del Potro’s run.  The question is whether all that playing will wear Querrey down or not.  Beyond this group, there might be players like Verdasco or Tsonga or Isner or Davydenko or Haas that could play well, but most people are looking to someone in the top 6 being the eventual champion.