Let’s start quickly.

My prediction is for Novak Djokovic to win.

Many people who make predictions base it on who they like or often who they dislike.  I’m basing the selection primarily on form.

Let’s take a look at the matches that Djokovic has played so far:

  • d. Lorenzi, 61 60 61
  • d. Dutra da Silva 62 61 62
  • d. Benneteau 63 62 62
  • d. Wawrinka 64 61 31
  • d. del Potro 62 76 64
  • d. Ferrer 26 61 64 62

OK, the first two rounds were against relative nobodies.  Djokovic had crushed Lorenzi back in the Australian Open earlier this year.  Benneteau should have given Djokovic more of a challenge, but didn’t, and Wawrinka retired.  Djokovic was running through the draw like Nadal does at Roland Garros.

Djokovic’s wins start to become interesting once he plays Juan Martin del Potro.  The two of them had played only a few weeks earlier in the bronze medal round in London, a match that del Potro won.  del Potro tried to hit through Djokovic, but Djokovic had gone back to being the backboard that lead him to one of the most successful years in men’s history.

Ferrer took the first set off Djokovic, but one can easily argue that the extreme wind that affected Saturday’s play affected Djokovic far more than Ferrer.  Djokovic has to be thrilled that the match was not completed on Saturday.

On Sunday, with the wind much more typical, Djokovic went back to being a backboard.  He found answers for pretty much everything Ferrer had to through, using his sharp angle crosscourt forehand to great effect.

By contrast, Murray struggled against Lopez, being taken to four sets. and was close to be down two sets to love to Marin Cilic.  Tomas Berdych nearly pushed yesterday’s match to 5 sets.  Overall, Murray has had a harder time getting to the finals than Djokovic has.  A lot harder.

For Murray to win, he’ll have to up the level of his play.  He needs to serve well.   Murray might take some solace that Djokovic was playing quite well in Cincinnati, and then got blown out in the initial set to Roger Federer in the finals.  More than likely, if Murray is to win, it will be similar to the Olympic match where the two play close, and Murray gets a key break per set.

Lendl has also had more time to think about how to play Djokovic since the two met at the start of the year where they barely had any time to work with one another, and perhaps just the good will in just starting the partnership was enough to keep Murray in that match.

Murray will have an additional day to recover which may be more critical for Murray, who played four hours of tennis that was played at a very slow pace, as players had to wait for the wind to be steady enough to start a point.  That match did for Murray to play a weird style that he used to disrupt Berdych while Djokovic had a chance to play his own game for three sets against a steady Ferrer.

Murray might point back to Lendl’s first Slam back in 1984.  McEnroe had come into the finals playing dominating tennis having not dropped a set.  However, Lendl was not that far off.  He dropped only one set, and otherwise played pretty good tennis to the finals.  Murray, by contrast, dropped 3 sets, one to Cilic, one to Lopez, and one to Berdych.  His best match was against Milos Raonic who lacks the kind of court coverage that Djokovic has.

I think people believe that Murray has the kind of game to beat Djokovic, but that Djokovic has shown more evidence that he’s at that level.