If you really had to press Roger Federer and ask him whether it was more important, for his legacy, to win Slams or Davis Cup, you know what the answer would be.  If Nadal has had master over Federer, he’s also had a sidekick named David Ferrer, ranked 5th in the world, who makes Davis Cup a breeze.  Even a player as formidable as Juan Martin del Potro can’t mail in a victory over the indefatigable Davis Ferrer.  No doubt that Stan Wawrinka is a very good player, but is he in the same league as Ferrer.  Hardly.

Because of this, the US had one advantage.  Federer doesn’t need Davis Cup to distract him from the most challenging part of the season.  The Olympics complicate this year like no other.  Due to the Olympics, Davis Cup has had to adjust its schedule.  Normally, Davis Cup is played shortly after Wimbledon.  Instead, Davis Cup is wedged between Miami and Monte Carlo.  Monte Carlo is an optional Masters 1000, but it makes life tough, and one reasons Nadal refused to play Davis Cup in 2012 is the scheduling conflicts forcing him to play Davis Cup and then Monte Carlo.

And to that extent, Federer lost to Isner and didn’t play great doubles with Wawrinka to the US.  Maybe the US would have won anyway.  Captain Jim Courier, with a 2-0 lead, opted for Mardy Fish to help clinch doubles over Ryan Harrison, the green up-and-comer, who was originally scheduled to play in doubles.

Although the Swiss took the first set, they played inconsistent doubles, probably far less than Federer would have played had Davis Cup meant more than it does to him.  US swept the doubles over Switzerland 46, 63, 63, 63

Up next is the winner of France vs. Canada.  France has never had a tie where their most talented duo has played together.  Tsonga-Monfils would be a great punch, but with a need to play doubles, France opted for Beeneteau-Llodra, a formidable duo who can also play singles in a pinch.  Except if they knew that Monfils would drop out, they might have picked Simon or Gasquet on the team (Davis Cup forces only a 4-man team, which makes doubles intriguing) who rank higher than either Llodra or Benneteau.  With Monfils bowing out due to injury, Canada has an outside shot to upset the French team.

The Canadians split with Raonic beating Benneteau and Pospisil, the hero that brought them victory over Israel and qualified them for the World Group, losing to the much higher-ranked Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  Doubles is a toss-up.  The French should be favored because they often have a very solid doubles team.  Even if Llodra normally pairs up with Zimonjic, he’s played enough doubles with Benneteau to be very comfortable with him.  Meanwhile, Canada mixes Nestor-Pospisil.  Nestor is a world-class doubles player but Canada lacks a second doubles player at that level.

So odds still favor the French to be the US next opponent.  The only oddity is the French still prefer to play on faster courts.  They may “love” clay, but their entire team is better on hard courts than on clay despite, say, Monfils semifinal run at Roland Garros a few years ago.  Only Richard Gasquet prefers clay, and even he plays well on hard courts.

So the US will likely play France unless Canada can pull a bigger upset than the US did.  Arguably, the French are far stronger than either the US or certainly the Swiss team while Canada has a weaker than any of these three other teams.

So congrats to Fish and Isner and Mike Bryan for taking the first round.  In an Olympic year where no American is likely to contend for a Slam in singles, the Davis Cup seems well within grasp.