Much like Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal gets the benefit of the doubt.  He wins so often, gets wins when he’s not playing well, that when he’s not on top of his game, as he’s not been at Toronto, many still feel he will win.  Many gave Nadal the edge to beat Murray despite Nadal struggling more to win his match over Kohlschreiber than Murray did in his easy win over Nalbandian.  Fans merely recall that Nadal had two five set wins, but then beat Soderling and Murray en route to winning Wimbledon.  Nadal, people feel, can work his way into tournaments, even if he starts out poorly, much like Roger Federer.

Indeed, the odd match Murray had against Monfils where he won the first set handily, lost the next set at love, then came back to win the third set, then his lack of any tournament wins the entire year, was proof enough that Murray wasn’t ready to win his first title yet.

The first real evidence that Murray had a shot to win the tournament was his win over Nalbandian.  Nalbandian had come into this tournament with two Davis Cup wins over Davydenko and Youzhny, then won DC last week, and had solid wins over Ferrer, Robredo, and Soderling.  Everyone felt Nalbandian was back, that is aggressive returns would pressure Murray’s weak second serve, that his pounding groundstrokes would make mincemeat of Murray’s passive hitting.  And, oh yes, Murray had never beaten Nalbandian in two previous attempts.  Murray was quick to point out that he pushed Nalbandian to 5 sets at Wimbledon in his first Wimbleson, so those losses were a long time ago, and although the tone of the voice did not betray Murray’s feeling that he had a few surprises for Nalbandian.

Murray, more than any other player, plays visibly different against different opponents.  Federer might make small adjustments and Nadal may too, but to the untrained eye, these changes are hard to pick on.  With Murray, those changes are often far more obvious.  In his LA match against Lopez, Murray hit slice backhand after slice backhand.  Against Querrey in the final, he only hit slices in emergencies.

Murray opted to play his “Nadal game” against Nalbandian, hitting big shots and pressuring Nalbandian with forehand and backhand.  He also served big and that made it difficult for Nalbandian to break serve.  Despite Nalbandian’s loss, some recognized that he had had a difficult two weeks and that maybe he looked flat.  So, they were those who felt that Murray’s win, impressive as it was, might not be enough to beat a Nadal who was sure to play much better than a tired Nalbandian.

The match against Nalbandian helped Murray because it allowed him to have one match where he went aggressively after the ball, and he did the same against Nadal.  Nadal struggled to reach many of Murray’s shots.  However, the match seemed a bit tight early on, and Murray wasn’t able to punish Nadal, although he tried.  However, he did get a break in the middle of the first set, and then ride that break to win the set.  Nadal started off a bit more quickly than he did against Kohlschreiber, not making the same errors, but he was also not nearly as aggressive as he can be.

Murray continued to be aggressive against Nadal in the second set and got an early break, but Nadal was able to play aggressive tennis and break Murray.  He had a chance to break him again with a 15-40 game, but Murray played a series of huge forehands and got out of that hole.  Murray was then able to engineer one more break, then have a solid service game to win the match 6-4 in the second.

Murray has been going without a coach, although his mother, Judy, does coach tennis and he’s been hitting with a hitting partner that has played Davis Cup.  Murray is one of the brighter tennis players on tour, so he, like Federer, has some idea of how he needs to play to win matches.

Nadal is probably not overly concerned.  When Nadal took an even bigger break and returned to play last year in Montreal, he lost somewhat early, but still won a few rounds.  Nadal looks at Toronto and Cincinnati as warmups to the US Open.  Last year, Nadal made it to the semifinals despite an abdominal injury before he was crushed by del Potro, so he knows what matters is not Toronto, but the US Open.

This win matters more for Murray who is trying to regain the form that got him to the Australian Open final.  The big question is whether he’ll use this style of play against either Federer or Djokovic.

The current feeling is, despite Djokovic’s easy win over Chardy and Federer’s tough win over Berdych, that Berdych was a much, much tougher opponent for Federer than Chardy was for Djokovic.  After all, Berdych reached the French Open semis and Wimbledon finals.  Chardy has never had such a good Slam result.  True, Federer had chances to close Berdych out in straight sets, then had to struggle mightily to break Berdych, and then almost gave up the two mini-break advantage he had in the third set tiebreak.

It’s just that Federer looked pretty good in the first set.  He was hitting harder, his backhand was looking like it did at the Australian Open, and rallies were going much longer than when Federer was struggling on clay and at Wimbledon.  He simply looked better than he has in a few months, with the possible exception of his play at Madrid.  Federer was regressing to a more passive, error-prone style in the third set, but played a very aggressive game to break Berdych.  Furthermore, Federer attacked the net much more than usual, perhaps a result of working with Annacone.

Meanwhile Djokovic, who, much like Murray, hasn’t had a great year.  He’s won one tournament (defending his title in Dubai), then struggled somewhat on clay, then lost in the quarterfinals of the French in a match it looked like he controlled, then lost to Berdych in the semifinals, a good result for Djokovic.  Like Federer and Nadal, this is Djokovic’s first match since Wimbledon (Murray played LA as a sub for Djokovic).  Djokovic is playing solid tennis, but it looks strangely passive, not the kind of aggressive tennis he was playing at the end of last year.

One thing that will help Djokovic is that it’s a night match, though, today, the weather seemed a bit windy so it didn’t seem as hot as yesterday.

We’ll see how this match turns out.  It’s on in about an hour.