Rafael Nadal has announced his withdrawal from the Australian Open due to a stomach virus), and this has to make his competition delirious with delight at the chance to make it deep in the draw.  Nadal’s absence has lead to some wild speculations including those who think his knee isn’t healing that well (despite Nadal’s claims that his knee is progressing well) or even those who think he’s serving a “secret ban” for doping.  The “secret” is to avoid fanfare for Nadal’s injury, but to punish him nonetheless.  This would be very strange as this would be the first sport that has partly allowed for performance enhancing drugs, but with penalties.  In any case, it’s probably easiest to treat this matter as pure speculation and not give it much credence.

The big 3 made life tough for those outside the big 3.  Even when it was the big 2, Andy Murray struggled to beat Rafa unable to beat him at the French Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open in 2010.  2011 became tougher as Djokovic and Nadal traded off titles.  Once Nadal lost in the second round of Wimbledon this year–still the last time Nadal has played an official match, players like Federer, Djokovic, and Murray breathed a sigh of relief.

In particular, Roger Federer has struggled mightily against Rafael Nadal.  He hasn’t beaten Nadal in a Slam since 2007.  Since then, Rafa won at the French Open and Wimbledon in 2008, at the Australian Open in 2009, at the French Open in 2011, at the Australian Open in 2012.  If there’s one person who is happy not to see Rafa play in Australia, it has to be Roger Federer.

But, the same can be said of Andy Murray.  When Rafa lost at Wimbledon, it paved a path for Murray to reach his first Wimbledon final.  To be fair, the Wimbledon draw was very challenging, with Tsonga and Ferrer in the way, but these were still infinitely preferable to playing Rafa.

Even Novak Djokovic has to be relieved.  In 2011, Djokovic faced Nadal in two of four Slams (Wimbledon and the US Open), plus countless times in Masters finals.  While he seemed to be getting the better of Rafa, a slump right around the start of the clay season lead Djokovic to three consecutive clay losses: at Monte Carlo, at Rome, and ultimately, at the French Open.

With Nadal out of the Australian Open, the big question remains: which side will Murray be on.  Federer would prefer that Murray land on Djokovic’s side, but at this point, Federer might be happy if del Potro was not in his half.  del Potro, as of late, has been giving Federer more problems than Murray.

The Australian Open, being the first major of the 2013 season, brings about hope for many players.  It was at Melbourne that Milos Raonic had a minor coming out party in 2011 when he reached the fourth round.  Nowadays, Raonic is in the top 15, waiting for either a breakthrough in the Slams or a Masters 1000 event.   2012 should have proved similarly auspicious for Bernard Tomic but the fruitful start was not followed with diligences and Tomic found himself in minor legal scuffles with Australian law who found his driving and partying habits a bit too much to bear.  His results also showed indifference as he never quite duplicated the skill or talent that lead him to a fourth round result in Melbourne.

Brian Baker, who made a Cinderella ride to the finals of Nice on clay, then also had a reasonably good Wimbledon, found it harder to win back on home soil.  His year fizzled.  Now he’s had some training, and he has to wonder if he can make, say, the top 30, something that seemed well within his sights during this run.

Sam Querrey has struggled twice in the past few years.  The first was a freak injury in the Far East that left him off the tour a few months.  He bounced back after that.  But then he got hurt, and the recovery had been slow as his results in 2010 didn’t quite push him back to the top.  2011 was decently good.  Querrey was one marathon match from making the fourth round of Wimbledon.  He beat Milos Raonic twice.  He even won a “local” title in Los Angeles when many players were at the Olympics.   Querrey is close to his best ranking at 21 in the world, but more importantly, he’s going deeper in important tournaments.  Querrey had a minor version of Andy Murray’s problem.  Where Andy Murray found it easy to win Masters 1000 titles (relative speaking) but difficult to break through at the Slams, Querrey was winning ATP 250 events, but struggling at Masters 1000 and Slams.  He’s improving quietly in that venue.

Two new names came out of nowhere late in the season.  Martin Klizan, of Slovakia, won St. Petersburg over Fabio Fognini.  He upset Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the US Open.  Can he sustain results in 2013?  His best surface appears to be clay, but he did reasonably well on hard courts as well.

JerzyJanowicz started the year playing Futures, the lowest rung of ATP tour.  By the middle of the year, he was playing Challengers.  He even reached the third round of Wimbledon.  By far, his biggest breakthrough was at Paris in late October where he qualified into the main draw, and rode the Cinderella story all the way to the final.  He found himself in a peculiar situation: playing David Ferrer, a veteran of the tour for over a decade, winner of 6 titles and the Davis Cup, but never a winner of a Masters 1000 title.  Meanwhile, Janowicz was in his first ATP tour final, and had a shot at the title before Ferrer shut him down with his usual diligent play.

Speaking of David Ferrer, here’s someone that has played top 5 tennis for several years now.  He’s the iron man of tennis, ending 2012 by playing four consecutive weeks on tour, something most players rarely do.  Now that Nadal has withdrawn, Ferrer will act as the fourth seed, and after the Slam, he will be the fourth ranked player in the world.  Ferrer thumped Tomas Berdych a few days ago, in the Mudabala exhibition in Abu Dhabi.  He was then thumped by Novak Djokovic who surprised himself with how well he was playing.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who had been coachless most of 2012 (and much of 2011), has hired Roger Rasheed who worked with Lleyton Hewitt and Gael Monfils.  Tsonga has expressed a wish to finally win a Slam, though which one is up for grabs.  He plays pretty well on grass, but his best result was at the Australian Open, when he reached the finals in 2008, losing to Novak Djokovic in Djokovic’s first of 3 Australian Open titles.

Tomas Berdych had his third good year in a row.  2010 saw Berdych reach the French semi and the Wimbledon finals.  However, he had no titles in 2010.  In 2011, Berdych won 50 matches which was a big breakthrough for him.  In 2012, he upset Roger Federer at the US Open to reach the US Open semifinal.  Berdych and Tsonga have given Federer headaches, accounting for 3 of his quarterfinal losses in Slams in as many years.  Berdych just came off a Davis Cup win with Radek Stepanek.  Will he find inspiration like the Serbs did, in particular, Djokovic and Tipsarevic?

Juan Martin del Potro found himself losing to Roger Federer (and David Ferrer) quite a bit in 2012.  If Ferrer has trouble beating everyone ranked above him (the top 4), then del Potro had similar troubles, plus problems beating Ferrer.  del Potro finally had a minor breakthrough by beating Federer in the finals of Basel.  That loss was enough for Federer to decide that a push to end the year at number 1 was too improbable a goal, and so he withdrew from Paris.  The rest seemed to do him some good, as he reached the finals of the World Tour Finals, upsetting Andy Murray along the way.

Last year’s Australian Open held pretty close to form.  The only top 8 players that didn’t reach the final 8 were Mardy Fish, who was upset by Alejandro Falla in the 2nd round.  Juan Martin del Potro, the 11th seed, reached the quarterfinals in his place, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who lost to Kei Nishikori in the fourth round.  Nishikori had beaten three Frenchman to reach the quarterfinals.  Nishikori had a breakthrough in winning Tokyo, an ATP 500 event, and did so over Milos Raonic, another up and comer.  Both had beaten top 8 players en route: Nishikori beat Berdych in the quarterfinals while Raonic beat Murray in the semifinals.

So while many lament that Rafael Nadal won’t be able to play for yet another Slam, many others are relishing the opportunities his absence provides.