Last year, it was not too hard to talk about the clay season.  The clay season referring to the tournaments between Monte Carlo and the last tournament prior to the French Open.  Think of this as a prelude to some grand symphony.  The clay season used to have less significance because the top players didn’t always play these tournaments.  Thus, you’d find a clay courter that would dominate these tournaments, then fizzle at the French (see Alberto Mancini).

Last year, it came down to the story of two men: Rafael Nadal (of course) and Novak Djokovic.  The two met three times in three consecutive Masters 1000 events.  They met in the finals of Monte Carlo, Rome, and the semifinals of Madrid.  Only Roger Federer came in, at the last moment, to snatch Madrid and make himself a possibility to win the French which, of course, he did.

Djokovic’s performance wasn’t so unusual.  He had been in the top 3 for some time and was considered a contender on all surfaces.

This year, the story has been different.  Let’s start from the top.  Roger Federer followed up a win at the Australian and got sick, thus skipped Dubai, where he spends a good deal of time training.  His next appearance was Indian Wells where he lost to Marcos Baghdatis early, then he went to Miami and lost to Tomas Berdych.  In both matches, he had match points.

Federer then took more time off, skipped Monte Carlo, didn’t go to Barcelona, and showed up at Rome where he, again, lost early, this time to Ernests Gulbis.  Given that Gulbis nearly got to the finals, perhaps this loss was more just bad luck on Federer’s part, who often struggles in early rounds, but works his way through.

Federer’s form is a bit shaky, so it’s not clear how he’ll do heading into the French.  He’ll play Estoril next week.  The field is fairly weak with the top challengers coming from Gael Monfils and Ivan Ljubicic.  It doesn’t take more than a handful of players to reach Arnaud Clement whose ranking has dropped to 80.  He’ll be highly favored to win this tournament with no big names, outside of Monfils and Ljubicic to bother him.  Even so, his form has been so shaky lately, that a win seems like a must, to show Federer is finally having the form that will lead him deep into Roland Garros.

Novak Djokovic is not having nearly the clay season he did last year.  He lost to Verdasco in the semis of Monte Carlo and lost to him again in the quarters of Rome.  However, since he hasn’t gone as far, he might be better well-rested.  Djokovic had a poor run in the US, which eventually lead him to say bye-bye to Todd Martin.  He’s played better since then, but not nearly as well that one feels he’s back.  He’s attributed some of his woes to allergies.

Rafael Nadal is back.  Well, sort of.  He had a dominating Monte Carlo where he decimated the field, but in Rome, he’s struggled, dropping (gasp!) his first set in a long time to Ernests Gulbis.  He’s complained that he’s not played that well at Rome after a strong Monte Carlo outing.  This has to bring some hope to his opponents who surely have put him as the favorite to win the French.

Indeed, Nadal has yet to play any of his usual top-flight opponents.  Last year, Nadal played Murray (semis of Monte Carlo), Djokovic (all 3 Masters clay events), and Federer (Madrid), but hasn’t played any of them this spring.  He hasn’t met Soderling, the guy who knocked him out this year, and of course, hasn’t played Davydenko or del Potro or Roddick (not that Roddick is great on clay).  He’s primarily played his fellow Spaniards.

Juan Martin del Potro manages to be in fourth despite only playing one tournament this year.  Doesn’t hurt to have had many of his points at the French Open and the US Open as well as the year end tournament.  He didn’t have many points to defend, not nearly as much as Andy Murray, and thus despite not having played in some time, finds himself moved up to fourth in the world.  It’s unclear whether the French Open might be his first tournament back or not.  This is perhaps the most serious injury of any top player in a while.  The closest guy that’s been injured like this is Davydenko.

Andy Murray, like Novak Djokovic, had a poor post-Australian Open run.  He skipped Marseille and then played Dubai where he lost to Janko Tipsarevic in a match he claimed to be “practicing” shots.  He did OK at Indian Wells losing in the quarters to Robin Soderling, but then was eliminated early by Mardy Fish in Miami.

Clay has always been Murray’s weakest surface, but he did reasonably OK last year, reaching the semis of Monte Carlo.  Murray lost early to Philipp Kohlschreiber in Monte Carlo rather handily.  Perhaps Kohlschreiber was hitting well, but even so, Murray didn’t seem to bother his German opponent.  He then went to Barcelona to train before heading to Rome.  He won his first match against Seppi, but ran into a tough opponent in David Ferrer.  While it was considered an upset, given Ferrer’s success on clay this year, and now his finalist appearance in Rome, that loss doesn’t look nearly as bad, especially with Murray playing a bit better than Monte Carlo.

Murray has opted to train some more and then play Madrid.

Nikolay Davydenko, coincidentally enough, won his last match back in Indian Wells over Ernests Gulbis.  He then promptly chose not to play his next match because he had broken his wrist.  His left wrist, of course, since he couldn’t play if his right wrist was broken.  Davydenko has been out since then.  One wonders if he’ll be back before the French Open or not.

Robin Soderling has played pretty solid tennis this year.  He reached the semis of Indian Wells and the semis of Miami.  He skipped Monte Carlo, and reached the finals of Barcelona, but lost in the 3rd round to Stanislas Wawrinka, who lost to Nadal in the quarters.  Is he ready to beat the likes of Nadal again?  Unclear.

Andy Roddick reached the finals of Indian Wells, then won Miami, but hasn’t played since then.  He skipped Monte Carlo (it’s an optional Masters 1000), then skipped Rome (he’s allowed to skip one mandatory tournament a year as a veteran).  He’ll probably only play Madrid and then the French Open.  Roddick isn’t that good on clay, despite playing a steady game.  He simply relies too much on his serve to win matches for clay to be a good surface for him.  He may have cut his schedule back since he does seem a bit prone to injury.

Verdasco, at ninth, is perhaps the second best clay courter this year, since the clay season started.  If you counted the entire year, then you’d give the nod to David Ferrer, but the clay tournaments he played before Monte Carlo did not include too many top players, in particular, Nadal declined to play any of the Latin American clay court circuit.  Verdasco reached the Monte Carlo finals where he was drilled, then won Barcelona, then reached the semis of Rome.  It’s quite an accomplishment for Verdasco, but doesn’t quite equal what Djokovic did last year.

Tsonga has had an OK season, but his best result has been in the Australian Open.  On clay, he lost to Ferrero in the round of 16 in Monte Carlo and to Thiemo de Bakker in the quarters of Barcelona and to Ferrer in the quarters of Rome.  Unless his game moves upwards a great deal soon, he doesn’t seem like a threat to win at Roland Garros.

Outside the top 10, the only other name of interest is Ernests Gulbis.  Gulbis will move to about 34 in the rankings, just behind Baghdatis once the new rankings show up.  To be safe, he needs to be in the top 32 to be guaranteed a seed at Roland Garros, though injuries and a few no-showers might still squeak him in with a low seed.

Based on performance in the clay season so far, Rafael Nadal is at the top, then Fernando Verdasco, then David Ferrer, then perhaps Novak Djokovic.  Of course, such a list excludes players that can definitely make noise at the French including Roger Federer, Juan Martin del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko.

Next week, three tournaments are played on clay which include Estoril (Federer is top seed), Munich, and Belgrade (top seed is Djokovic, with Isner/Querrey the next 2 seeds).  The last big clay tournament will be Madrid (there’s one more tournament in Nice, France prior to the French).

Questions to be answered by then.  In principle, del Potro, Davydenko, and Roddick will make their first appearance on clay in Madrid.  Can Murray play better on clay?  Will anyone challenge Nadal?  Can Federer defend his title?  Madrid looks to be an interesting tournament for all these reasons.