Sometimes, two players are completely mismatched.  One player is clearly more capable than the other, and the win is based on technical skills.  The better player could even be nervous and the less good player quite confident, but the physical barrier too significant to overcome with mental goodwill.

But sometimes, the match is mental, with two players clearly capable of beating one another, and the key being the ability to play confidently.

Rafael Nadal had not seen real tournament play since his fourth round loss to Robin Soderling nearly two months ago.  Since then, he had been resting and recovering trying to regain his form.  Most people, including Rafa’s own coach, had expected Rafa to be a little rusty.

Even as Rafa entered the tournament as the second seed, the thought he’d actually win the tournament seemed a little remote.  Federer was playing, Murray was playing.

Of all the top players, only Juan Martin del Potro was coming into Montreal with a significant hardcourt win.  He had just won Washington DC and beaten Andy Roddick in a tight three setter.

Nadal, for his part, hadn’t played that many tough matches getting here.  David Ferrer, normally a tough opponent, had to retire with knee injury after only 7 games.  Nadal’s second round opponent, Petzschner, was little match.  But del Potro was expected to give Nadal a challenge.  Having risen to number 5 in the world before ceding the ranking to Roddick, del Potro was coming to Montreal playing good hard court tennis.  Furthermore, the last time these two met each other was on the hard courts of Miami, where del Potro eked out a three set win over Nadal.

del Potro knew he had the tools to beat Nadal.  But it’s always tough to play a guy who has given you trouble, and you’re not sure how he will play.

del Potro was tight in the first set against Nadal.  Although del Potro was serving big and consistent, he had a hard time returning shots, often missing forehands that he normally makes.  This allowed Nadal to stay in his own games, even though he rarely challenged del Potro’s serve.

The two held serve throughout the first set and this inevitably lead to a tiebreak where Nadal took a 5-2 lead.  del Potro took two points on his own serve and then took the next three points, including a sweet drop volley, and closed the final one on an ace.

Pulling out the first set tiebreak seemed to release all the tension in del Potro’s body, and he began to relax.

Although del Potro is known for his bludgeoning forehand, he was able to use his size to hit powerful backhands, often aided by standing much closer to the baseline.  When Nadal is not feeling confident on a surface, he’ll stand ten feet back, leaving his opponents more time to hit the ball.

del Potro got an early break, then got a second break.  Perhaps knowing how Federer had melted down, del Potro was keen to avoid any letdowns.  Nadal had points where he pushed del Potro around, but key to del Potro’s victory was his ability to time and again chase down the shots and make Nadal have to hit one more shot, and then draw Nadal to net, where he’d hit a good pass.  del Potro also had some timely topspin lobs that Nadal hit awkwardly.

Finally, del Potro was able to hit hard shots to his forehand even harder down then line.  In Nadal’s last service game, del Potro was able to play three good points to 0-40, and Nadal took one more point, before del Potro finally broke Nadal a third time to take the set, 6-1, perhaps one of the few times he’s been dominated like that in a set when the opponent was not Roger Federer (or when he wasn’t injured as he was against Murray earlier this year).

The stress of trying to beat a guy that isn’t 100% fit which had worn del Potro down in the first set suddenly lifted.

A key question is how is Nadal playing?  He doesn’t look like his knees are bothering him, but he is clearly not playing fantastic.  His serve percentage was around 60% and he was winning about 60% of his first serves and 50% of his second.  Nadal typically serves better and runs shots down better.  Still, a 70% Nadal is often good enough to beat most opponents.  Nadal is expected to play Cincinnati next week, but will two more weeks be enough for Nadal to get in shape for the US Open.  Although anything is possible, it seems like a tall order for Nadal to get back to 100% shape.

The good news for Nadal is that normally, this time of year, his body is breaking down anyway.  This year, he’s had some rest, but the rest has lead to some rust.  Can Nadal shake off the rust in time for the US Open?  And what should he do after the US Open?

But back to Montreal.

del Potro gets a repeat of last week’s match.  He’ll face Andy Roddick for the second tournament in a row.  del Potro seems to have too many weapons for Roddick, but Roddick generally plays him close.

The top two seeds (and the fourth seed) have fallen.  Will this opening lead Andy Murray to win another hardcourt title and make him the odds-on favorite for the US Open?  Or will someone like del Potro or Roddick or Tsonga have something to say about it.  Find out tomorrow!