As the “new four” try to climb their way to the top (whether they can do this is another question), they need to secure big victories at some point.  Let’s think about the big four.

Roger Federer’s big win was beating Sampras in the fourth round of Wimbledon in 2001.  At the time, Sampras had won 7 of the last 8 Wimbledons.  To be fair, Sampras was in decline in 2001 and 2002, but even so, to beat Sampras at Wimbledon was an amazing feat.

Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer back in 2004 Miami.  Nadal was the 32nd seed and Federer had a great year in 2004.

Djokovic was playing well throughout 2007.  He had his first big victory in 2007 Indian Wells where he beat Nadal for the first time in the semifinals.  He also beat Murray along the way, though Murray was ranked in the teens at the time.  But he really put it together at Montreal beating the top 3 players in the world (Roddick in the quarters, Nadal in the semis, and Federer in the finals).

Andy Murray’s first big win was in 2006.  Twice he beat Andy Roddick, but the big win was at Cincinnati where he beat Roger Federer in the second round.  He wouldn’t make his big move until 2008 where he reached number 4 and reached his first US Open final.

Against those resumes, Raonic, Tomic, Harrison, and Dimitrov don’t quite measure up.

Tomic just had a decent win, beating Mardy Fish at Shanghai, which was remarkable because he lost to Fish the week before in Beijing.  Raonic’s best win is Verdasco back in San Jose.  But Raonic had chances to beat Ferrer (including last week at Shanghai) and still hasn’t broken through.  Harrison has come close to beating Fish, but has yet to do it.  His best victory was in the opening round of the 2010 US Open when he beat Ivan Ljubicic.  Ljubicic admits that he plays poorly in heat and that was one reason he didn’t pull through the match.

Grigor Dimitrov’s best win appears to be Marcos Baghdatis, and that’s the kind of win that’s nice, but it can’t be a once in a while kind of win.

Tomic had a golden opportunity to get a second win.  His opponent today was Gael Monfils.  Monfils injured himself in Bangkok and this was his first tournament back.  Monfils should have been a little rusty.  Meanwhile, Tomic had played for two weeks in a row, so he should be fresh.  Monfils took the first set 6-4.  Tomic took the second set, 7-6.  In the last set, Tomic was up a break and had points for a second break.  However, Monfils not only held, but broke back twice to take the set, 6-4.  Monfils was the only seed to win today.

With this lost opportunity, Tomic has to figure out how best to adjust in matches.  Last week, he lost to Dolgopolov when the Ukrainian started to hit out more on the ball.  Though Tomic won a close first set, he won only one game in sets 2 and 3.  Dolgopolov said Tomic made no adjustments to counter his strategy which was why he lost.

Dimitrov had a solid three set win over Chela.  Chela is one of those solid players that you wonder why he wins, and yet he does.  So this is a good win for Dimitrov.  Meanwhile Jarkko Nieminent upset 3rd seed, Stan Wawrinka, and David Nalbandian upset 7th seed Ivan Dodig.

The quarterfinals are as follows:

  • Monfils (1) vs Anderson (5).  I think this is a good opportunity for Anderson to pull the upset.  Monfils should be too athletic for Anderson, but Anderson’s a solid player in the mold of Querrey or Isner, so he has enough firepower to keep it interesting.
  • Raonic (6) vs. Dimitrov.  Raonic has a bigger game than Dimitrov, but both are pretty raw making errors that still show their youth.  Dimitrov has a chance because of that, but I think Raonic should be slightly favored.
  • Kamke vs. Nieminen.  A good opportunity for both.  Nieminen has played Kamke twice and beaten him twice, but neither player is ranked that high, so both players should have a chance.
  • Nalbandian vs. Blake.  Nalbandian has shown more hints of success in the last two years, though certainly not at the level he played around 2003.  Blake has faded tremendously, but has shown signs of playing better the last few months.  Oddly enough, Blake is the older of the 2 and leads the head-to-head 2-0.  They even recently played in Washington DC where Blake upset Nalbandian.  Blake just beat one-half of the Argentinian singles team for Davis Cup.  He has a good chance to beat the other guy.  Blake plays a high risk game, so the key is playing well again.  Still, Nalbandian is a tough baseliner.  Perhaps the most intriguing of the quarterfinals.