Just for the fun of it, I thought I would look at Wednesday’s matches and give some thoughts about them.

Fernando Verdasco vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero

These two haven’t played in two years.  Verdasco leads 3-2 and won the last two.  Ferrero is a strange player.  He’s frequently injured, but when he comes back, he’s often surprisingly good.  He does seem to struggle against lefties.  For example, Feliciano Lopez has a pretty good record against Ferrero.  Verdasco hasn’t had a good year, but seems to be playing somewhat better tennis, so I give a tiny edge to him.

Kei Nishikori vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Right now, I’d have to say Tsonga is the better player.  The two have never met.  Tsonga should have too big a serve and too big a forehand.  He’s playing well.  The one issue is fatigue.  He reached the semis of Beijing.  Does he have the zip to win this match?

Rafael Nadal vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Although Garcia-Lopez beat Nadal last year in Bangkok, it’s hard to believe he’ll push Rafa too much.  Rafa is playing good tennis, and good tennis is usually what Rafa needs to win.

Andy Murray vs. Dmitry Tursunov

Tursunov used to be a top 20 player (right around 20).  However, he’s never beaten Andy Murray in 5 attempts, although they haven’t met since 2008.  Murray said that it might be challenging to do well in Shanghai given his success in Bangkok and Tokyo due to fatigue.  He also said the surface is pretty fast, which he likes, but he needs to get adjusted to the surface quickly.  Still, Murray has to be favored over Tursunov given his recent run of success.  He gets 3 days to rest and is the late match on Wednesday.

Jurgen Melzer vs. Santiago Giraldo

Melzer leads the head-to-head 2-1, but Giraldo won their last encounter this year, admittedly on clay.  Giraldo has a big forehand, but his serve could be better.  He had to recover from being a set down against Dodig.  I think Melzer has the edge, but good opportunity for Giraldo.

David Ferrer vs. Milos Raonic

These two met back in the Australian Open, and then again in Monte Carlo.  Ferrer won both matches, though Raonic took a set off Ferrer in Melbourne.  Raonic got hurt and has been trying to regain his form.  I’m not sure he’s there yet.  Still, his serve ought to keep in the sets.  Raonic did have a nice win over Llodra in the first round, but it went 3 sets.  The surface is quick, so expect Raonic to be tough but Ferrer to eke out the win.  This should be Raonic’s best surface against Ferrer, however.

Tomas Berdych vs. Radek Stepanek

These are Davis Cup teammates.  They have hardly played each other.  The last time they played was in 2006.  The two have split the two matches they’ve played.  Still, I think Berdych is playing pretty well and that he’ll overpower Stepanek.  The way to beat Berdych is to make him move since he isn’t the fastest mover, but if Berdych can control the points with his pace, he’ll take the match.

Feliciano Lopez vs. Alex Bogomolov

Bogomolov has a very nice forehand.  His serve could be better, so he has to work on all his serves.  Lopez, on the other hand, has a nice tough serve, and so I think the combination of that (and Lopez being a lefty server) will make Lopez a tough guy to beat.  Bogomolov did beat Tsonga earlier this year, so he does have some capacity to handle hard serves.

Alex Dolgopolov vs. Albert Ramos

Ramos is ranked just low enough that I don’t know who he is.  Ramos qualified and then upset Marin Cilic.  Cilic apparently didn’t have enough time to recover to play a decent match.  Dolgopolov played Ramos earlier in the year at Umag, an event on clay, and won that.  I have to imagine Dolgo will win again.

Matthew Ebden vs. Ryan Harrison

Ebden has been playing his best tennis this year and so has Harrison, although Harrison has come closer to winning a title than Ebden.  Ebden has a big serve and a big forehand, but isn’t that quick a mover.  Harrison has an even bigger serve, but also has consistency issues.  I think it’s a toss-up, but because Harrison beat Troicki, I think he feels much more elated.  Still, a great chance for either player to make the next round.

Conclusion

I think the most interesting matches are Ferrer vs. Raonic, Berdych vs. Stepanek, and Verdasco vs. Ferrero.  It will be interesting to see if Murray or Nadal struggle in their opening round (or Berdych) given they were in the finals just a few days ago.