Right now, Nadal is number 1 with 12470 points.  Djokovic is number 2 at 10665 points.  1805 points separate the two.  There is a slim chance Djokovic could become number 1 at the end of Rome.

A Masters 1000 event awards 1000 points to the winner.  Normally, a player doesn’t get the full 1000 points because they had points to defend from the previous year.  Thus, if they won the tournament (like Rafa did) the previous year and won it again, the net gain is 0.

However, last year, Djokovic had some allergy issues and was upset in Belgrade which was then played right before Madrid, the third Masters 1000 in the European clay season.  He decided to skip Madrid to recover and therefore has a 0 for Madrid.  This year, they switched Madrid to be the center tournament and Rome to be the third tournament.  Thus, Djokovic effectively has a 0 for Rome.  If he wins Rome, he gains 1000 points because he has no points to defend.

Rafa, however, needs to earn less than 200 points at Madrid for Djokovic to become number 1.  That way, he loses 800 points to create the 1805 point gap Djokovic needs to make up.  To do this, Rafa would have to lose in the quarterfinals (or earlier).  If he does, he’ll earn 180 points.  Since he won Rome last year (or Madrid, at the equivalent spot), he has 1000 points to defend.  If he loses in the quarters, he will have a net loss of 820 points.

Between Rafa losing 820 points and Djokovic winning 1000 points, Djokovic would make up the gap and become number one.

The more unlikely scenario is Rafa losing in the quarterfinals.  Ferrer has the best shot to do upset Rafa in the quarters, but is unlikely to do so.  Last week, del Potro might have done upset Rafa early (unlikely), but he didn’t play due to injury, and so Rafa had a walkover.

Djokovic still has to do his part and go deep in Rome.  The draw isn’t TOO bad, but it had some challenges.  He might play Almagro or Soderling in the third round.  He is likely to beat doubles specialist Kubot in his opening round tomorrow.  Murray is in his half of the draw, but Murray is less likely to reach the semis than Djokovic.  Murray’s section isn’t TOO bad.  There are some tough players in Melzer or Troicki, but there’s no Tsonga or Soderling.

This would leave the French Open as the place Djokovic could become number 1.  He might even do it without winning the French Open.  For example, if Djokovic wins Rome and beats Rafa again, then he would gain 1000 points and Rafa would lose 400 points.  This would be a 1400 point swing and Djokovic would be 405 points behind.

If Rafa wins the French Open and Djokovic is the runner-up, Rafa would gain no points as the defending champ.  Djokovic would get 1200 – 360 = 840 points and become number 1.  He would not quite reach there if he loses in the semifinalsL 720 – 360 = 360.

Should Djokovic lose Rome to Rafa, he would still gain 600 points, but now be 1805 – 600 = 1205 points behind.  He would then have to win the French to be number 1.  With a win, Djokovic would gain 2000 – 360 = 1640 points.  Rafa would lose points for not winning the French and the gap would be larger.  However, even Rafa losing early, say, in the semifinals, would be enough, provided Djokovic reaches the quarters and defends his points.  Clearly, if Rafa lost even earlier, like the fourth round, it would almost not matter what Djokovic does because those lost points would be so tremendous that even if Djokovic lost points, he could still be number one.

For example, if Rafa lost in the third round, he’d lose about 1900 points.  Even if Djokovic lost in the first round, that loss is so humongous that Djokovic would gain number 1 despite losing 360 points he made last year.  That’s how valuable that Slam win is to Rafa.  And even if Rafa wins the French, Djokovic only has to make progress (reach the semis) to close the gap).

Djokovic’s big challenge will be Wimbledon where he reached the semifinals last year and has some points to defend.

However, Nadal is notoriously good at defending his points.  Djokovic has had opportunities to beat Nadal and take number 2 (like back in 2008 or so), but never quite did it.  He is, of course, playing much better tennis relative to Nadal then.

Oh yes, just in case you’ve forgotten, Federer can make it interesting too.  Federer is around 9000 points.  He is a finalist at Madrid.  Rome takes the place of Madrid this year, so he has finalist points to defend.  However, Roger also lost in the quarterfinals last year.  Should he make a surprise surge and reach the finals of the French, he could gain maybe 800-900 points.  This would also mean defeating one of Djokovic or Nadal.  Beating Nadal would be much better for Federer, because it would cause Nadal to lose about 1200 points and probably put Federer close to number 2 (and lead Djokovic to number 1).

Indeed, Federer doesn’t particularly care how Nadal lose, just that he does.  Obviously, this is a tall order, but if it happens, Federer could sneak to number 1, especially if he can win Wimbledon.

Is it likely?  Probably not, but it is within mathematical possibility, and if Federer can lift his game for that one month period much like Berdych did last year, and if Nadal, in particular, stumbles either at the French or Wimbledon or both, Federer could sneak by.  His best scenario is getting to number 2 at the French, and hoping Djokovic knocks out Nadal in the Wimby semifinals, etc.

Everyone else is pretty far behind.  In particular, Murray and Soderling are way back, and Murray has a lot of points to defend at Wimbledon.  A good French showing would provide insurance against an early loss at Wimbledon.  Lately, Wimbledon has been Murray’s most consistent tournament.

An interesting few weeks ahead!