Even though many have said Djokovic-Nadal or even Djokovic-Murray has replaced the rivalry of Federer-Nadal, people still get excited about the prospect of the two meeting.  Admittedly, clay is Rafa’s best surface, having lost fewer matches on the surface than anyone who has played as long as Rafa has played.

The rivalry has lost its luster because Federer is no longer as dominating as he used to be.  He’s not bad, mind you, but Djokovic definitely plays better, on average, than Federer, and Murray can challenge Federer too.  And, when they are playing well, Tsonga and Berdych bother Federer as well, where none of these players seem to bother Djokovic or Nadal.

Indeed, for all of Federer’s titles, for all of his accolades, 2013 has yet to be a fruitful year for the Swiss maestro.  Federer attempted to peak, last year, at Wimbledon, and played a bit more tennis than he normally does.  He received a friendly draw at Wimbledon.  Although Benneteau pushed Fed to the brink, once Federer got the fourth set, he cruised as Benneteau cramped.  This year, perhaps to give himself more time to recover, Federer chose not to play between Miami and Madrid giving him a few additional weeks of rest.  He came out shaky at Madrid and lost early to Nishikori.

At Rome, Federer played more crisply with easy wins over Starace and Simon, and then two close straight set wins over Janowicz and Paire.  Nadal had it much tougher, in terms of quality of opponent, having to play Gulbis, Ferrer, and Berdych in back to back to back rounds.  Federer, I’m sure, preferred his draw over Nadal.

In matches where Federer has done well against Nadal, he comes out firing, and hopes the balls keep landing until he wins a set.  Unfortunately, Nadal has shown the ability to start coming back prior to the end of the first set and often claims it.  When Federer beat Nadal at Madrid in 2009, he had the fortune of playing Nadal after he had a 3-set marathon against Djokovic, one of the best matches of 2009, and one that ultimately seemed to spell doom for Nadal and Djokovic at the French Open.  Federer mixed up his approaches to net, causing Nadal to return some shots short to defend the serve and volley, but otherwise, played a nervy match just edging out the Spaniard.

The two faced earlier this year in Indian Wells with Nadal the victor.  At the time, Federer had an injury that prevented him from playing his best.  However, Nadal has been working his game to play the French, and as part of his preparation, he’s been playing more aggressively.  Against Ferrer, who likes to hit his forehand inside out, Nadal began curling his lefty forehand down the line, often a few feet from the outstretched arms of Ferrer who couldn’t chase the shot down.  Similarly, Berdych also struggled some with Nadal’s aggressive shotmaking.  Gulbis did well because he hits so hard, and that pace buys him some time, but Nadal forces you to make hard shot after hard shot, because he’s so adept at reaching the ball, then curling the ball high, and buying himself more time for the next shot.

Federer will go into the finals as an underdog.  Indeed, this will be his first final of the year.  For Federer, this will be his big event, as the likelihood of him winning the French again seems low given how many players can contend with Federer, and given how less effective his serve is on clay vs. grass.   Still, Federer looks pretty fresh, so there should be nothing bother him in particular, but Nadal will go into the match having only lost twice this year, once in his first tournament back, and once to Djokovic in Monte Carlo.