Given how often Rafa and Novak were competing against each other, they seemed so far ahead of everyone that no one would catch them, but Federer had an outstanding end of the year where he won Basel, Paris, and the year-end championship.  Federer continued to have a solid 2012, starting off better than he has in a long time with wins in Rotterdam, Dubai and Indian Wells.  Federer struggled to win titles last year until after the US Open.

If Roger maintains the number 2 slot, then he is guaranteed not to play Novak Djokovic until the finals, and if he’s lucky, he might not face Nadal either.  Due to the way the calendar has fallen this year, results are dropping off prior to the tournament being played.  Thus, the Rome results are already off.  Rafa was runner-up and lost 600 points.  Federer lost in the third round, so he lost only 90 points.  This 510 point boost, plus Roger picking up 1000 points to Rafa’s 90 (a net gain of 910 points) means Federer has, prior to Rome, picked up nearly 1500 points.

However, he only has about a 300 point lead over Rafa and would have to do as well as Rafa to stay number 2 into Paris (neither player is likely to play between Rome and Paris, despite the chance for number 2).  That could be tough as Rafa could easily win or be runner up at Rome.

So Rome becomes critical to Roger staying at number 2.  We’ll see how Djokovic and Nadal recover.  Because the draw was made prior to Federer becoming number 2, Djokovic and Federer are in the same half of the Rome draw.