As Americans are focused on “March Madness”, a 65-team single-elimination basketball tournament for college teams, a few folks may have created brackets for Indian Wells.  Few would have picked this final.  Andy Roddick playing tour veteran, Ivan Ljubicic, in the finals.

The semifinal match-up between Roddick and Soderling didn’t look good for Roddick.  Soderling had a 2-0 record over Roddick, both matches played on fast surfaces, and both played before Soderling became more of a household name.  Roddick’s playing style lies somewhere between the rather passive, change-of-pace, style of Andy Murray and the spinny, aggressive style of Rafael Nadal.

Roddick backs up his big serve with a counter-punching style where he puts just enough pace on the shot where it’s not easy enough to attack (unlike Murray who seems to bait you to attack him, so he can try to pass you).  When you can get a few free points on serve, the pressure of having to play a steady guy like Roddick has to wear on you.

Roddick beat Soderling for the first time, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.  The difference appears to have been due to Soderling making errors in both the first and third set.  Soderling played aggressive in the second set, getting a break back from Roddick and then breaking again.  Roddick was so infuriated with his loss of serve that he smashed his racquet.

Roddick leads Ljubicic 7-3, but the pair haven’t played since 2007.  Roddick won the last two encounters, and Ljubicic won the previous two.  The two first played each other in 2002.

Ljubicic’s strategy will be pretty much the same as it has been.  Use his big serve to set up a big forehand.  Roddick, meanwhile, will look to play steady tennis, win a few free points coming to net.  It would be a dream tournament for Ljubicic if he won, beating Djokovic and Nadal along the way, but at this point, I’d give the edge to Andy Roddick.  Certainly, Ljubicic looks as solid and relaxed with his play as ever.  He finally play someone closer in age to him, although he is still some 3 years older than the higher ranked American.  For Andy Roddick’s part, getting to the finals is a huge achievement for him, and winning a Masters 1000 would be likewise as big.

If Roddick wins, it would be his fifth Masters title.  He has won Cincinnati twice, Miami once, and Montreal once.  He has not won a Masters 1000 event since 2006 and 3 of them were in 2004 and before.

So let’s see how the top 8 are doing.

Roger Federer has lost some of the consistency that he showed in Australia.  He would tell you that he had match points against Baghdatis, and so he considers it an almost-victory.  Even so, he’ll look to rebound playing in Miami.

Novak Djokovic was probably suffering a bit from fatigue having defended Dubai then played Davis Cup.  Even so, he tends to play up and down in surprising ways.  Is he ready to recover in Miami?  He’s incredibly difficult to predict, day to day.

Rafael Nadal is not really all that far from playing well again.  On hard courts, an aggressive player, playing well, can still bother Nadal.  Rafa has tried playing more aggressive points to shorten games up.  A player like Ljubicic was able to hit big shots and big serves when he needed to, and then get a few errant shots from Nadal.  Nadal normally plays a much cleaner, error-free game.  When he makes too many errors, he is more vulnerable to big hitters.

Andy Murray has maybe more questions to answer than anyone.  If Djokovic is infuriating because he’s so up and down, often for no good reason, Murray is infuriating because he seems power-challenged.  Players who are agile with big shots bother Murray and he doesn’t have the kind of tools to dominate them.  He really relies on his opponents making errors, and if they don’t, he can get in trouble.  His game isn’t even steady enough to play like Andy Roddick who truly does try to outlast his opponents from the baseline.  How often do you see Roddick go for a big winner?  Hardly ever.  But he has big enough groundies that he doesn’t get into as much trouble as Murray does and he’s somewhat more aggressive off the ground.

Juan Martin del Potro is still in trouble.  He has had to withdraw from Miami due to problems with his wrist.  He’ll now have to adjust his game to clay.  del Potro has had other health issues that have affected him.  He had problems during the post US Open tournaments, but peaked, as usual, in the big tournaments, in particular, the ATP World Tour Final.

Similarly, Nikolay Davydenko is out for a few months, and may barely make the French Open, if he’s lucky.  He had some issues similar to this last year, and barely got ready for the French Open making it to the quarterfinals where he lost to Robin Soderling.  Davydenko had been having one of his best few months of his career, having had victories over Nadal and Federer and del Potro.

Robin Soderling has been playing better lately, but is he ready to move into the top 5.  He has the kind of serve and groundstrokes to bother other players, but is he ready to do better?

Finally, Andy Roddick continues to look pretty solid.  Even though players have passed him by, he continues to try to get his game better.  He’ll never be the flashy player Roger Federer is, nor can he really be Rafael Nadal, but he can play the counter-puncher with the big serve.  One reason Roddick’s career has fared better than James Blake is because Blake continues to play a risky style.  Sometimes that results in a good upset, but at times, his aggressive fails to pay off.

Rafael Nadal may have something to salvage from Indian Wells.  He’s in the finals of the doubles tournament.  He and his partner, Marc Lopez, are going to face the top seed, Zimonjic and Nestor.  Roger Federer credited the 2008 US Open win to a doubles gold at the Olympics with Stanislas Wawrinka.  It’s likely they will lose to this top doubles team, but it’s always fascinating to see a player like Nadal playing doubles.