As they say, stats lie. Andy Roddick’s head-to-head with Novak Djokovic showed a 5-3 lead for the American. However, the two hadn’t played each other since 2010 prior to Djokovic’s breakout year in 2011. And Roddick’s ranking has taken a tumble to roughly 30, before his recent success at Eastbourne and Atlanta which has elevated his rank to 21. Andy’s best Slams have been at Wimbledon despite never having won the title. He has been runner up at Wimbledon 3 times, though he’s won the US Open once and lost once in the finals.
Most people in the know realized Roddick would have to serve well and hope that Djokovic had an off-day. Neither happened as Djokovic strolled to a 62 61 win. Roddick said he hit the ball just fine, but that Djokovic was just seeing the ball big.
Lleyton Hewitt continues to show, despite injuries that mean he’ll never likely get to the top ten again, that he has an affinity for grass. Although Cilic won Queen’s and made it to the fourth round of Wimbledon, he couldn’t find a way to beat the resilient Aussie who took the match, 64 75.
And Feliciano Lopez showed that grass is still his best surface (surprising for a Spaniard) and toppled Juan Monaco, 64 64. Monaco recently became number ten in the world, but it’s his prowess on clay that got him there.
Kei Nishikori came from a set down to the Russian, Nikolay Davydenko, to win in three sets: 46 64 61. He’ll face Spaniard, David Ferrer, who had an easy time over Blaz Kavcic, 62 62, in the third round.
Andy Murray had a good start over an errant Jarkko Nieminen and took the match, 64 62. He’ll play Marcos Baghdatis who beat the talented but inconsistent Richard Gasquet, 64 64. Murray will play Baghdatis in the third round. They met at Wimbledon in the third round which Murray won in four sets at the stroke of 11 PM, the curfew at Wimbledon.
Finally, Tsonga had Raonic had their own version of Isner-Mahut with Tsonga playing the role of the Frenchman and Raonic playing the role of the big server. This match was not expected to reach a 70-68 conclusion like the famous Wimbledon match of two years ago if only because Tsonga returns serve much better. The Isner-Mahut match relied on Isner being too tired to do much on return from Mahut (and return being one of Isner’s weaknesses) and Isner’s serve being too big for the Frenchman.
In this case, Tsonga is better than Isner at least off the ground and on returns. Raonic has as big a serve, but Tsonga had more chances to break than Raonic did. Tsonga often held his serve more easily than the Canadian.
Despite the differences, the two of them went on and on in the third set as Raonic overcame match points. In the final game, Raonic was down triple break point. He got one point, but then lost the match on a nice lob by Tsonga which lead to an approach by Tsonga, a ball called not-up, and in any case, Tsonga smashing the ball to capture the victory. With the 25-23 win, this becomes the longest match in Olympic tennis history which, admittedly, doesn’t go that far back.
Tsonga remains the big obstacle in Djokovic’s way, though they wouldn’t meet until the quarterfinals should they both get that far.
With the third round ready to go, the men will play three consecutive days, and for players that played today, four consecutive days. Wednesday is the third round, Thursday, the quarterfinals, and Friday, the semifinals. If there is no rain to postpone the matches, they should then get a day off, and then play the medal round on Sunday.
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Federer vs Istomin They’ve only played twice and Federer won both times, not surprisingly. Istomin had played reasonably well a few years ago, but faded some, so his Olympic achievement has been better than expected. Still, look for Federer to want to get this match over in a hurry so he can save energy for later rounds.
Isner vs. Tipsarevic These two have only met once in Vienna on hardcourts back in 2009. Tipsarevic won that meeting. He’ll be slightly favored, as the higher seed, to win this one. It boils down to how well Isner serves. Isner has regained some confidence after losing early at Wimbledon this year with a repeat win at Newport. Still, this is as big a chance for Isner to go deep at the Olympics as any.
Ferrer vs. Nishikori Surprisingly, the two have split the two matches they’ve met. Nishikori won a 5-setter against Ferrer in the 2008 US Open while Ferrer beat him in Tokyo last year. Since then, things have changed a bit. Nishikori got injured despite winning a title early on and spent over a year trying to get his rank back up. He’s been starting to play better as of last year. Ferrer, since 2008, has played some of the best tennis of his career. He is currently on a hot streak. He was a semifinalist at the French Open, then he won in the Netherlands on grass, then reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, then won on the clay at Bastad. This guy has learned to play all the surfaces. Ferrer will be strongly favored because Nishikori’s form is still questionable, but grass should be Ferrer’s weakest surface as he excels on clay and hardcourts, both indoors and out. Still, a great chance for Ferrer to reach the quarterfinals.
Simon vs. del Potro The two have split their four meetings, three of them in Slams. They met in last year’s US Open where Simon’s steadiness outwitted the tall, powerful Argentine. However, del Potro got the better of him at Wimbledon last year in three close sets. Given that del Potro is not quite at the level he was in 2009, this match could be close. Simon hasn’t reached his high mark of 2008 either. del Potro will be favored, but should be a close match.
Darcis vs. Almagro Quick, name any male player from Belgium? Struggling? Steve Darcis is one of them. He upset Tomas Berdych, then won against Giraldo. Can he pull the upset once again? These two have played each other four times, and Almagro has won all four times. They’ve never met on grass. Almagro will be favored because of his power shots, but grass is his least favorite surface. Indeed, he’s not gone deep in any Slam. Can Darcis pull the upset? I think it’s possible, but not probable.
Murray vs. Baghdatis The head-to-head is close, at 4-3, but Murray has won their last 3 meetings including this year’s Wimbledon. Baghdatis always gives Murray a tough time, but Murray usually ends up victor. Murray has the edge, but expect a close match. Murray has had good starts in both his matches so far, a result of playing cleanly and his opponent playing not so cleanly. He’d like another start like that against the Cypriot.
Tsonga vs. Lopez They’ve met 3 times and Tsonga has won 3 times. The one gotcha here is the long match he played against Raonic, the longest in Olympic tennis history. On the plus side, it was on grass, and both are big-hitters, so fatigue may not be an issue. Even so, Lopez needs every edge he can get. Tsonga is better off the ground, but Lopez has a good serve and covers the net well. Tsonga still favored to win, however.
Djokovic vs. Hewitt They’ve met 6 times and Djokovic has won 5 times. They last met in Australia in 2012 where Hewitt managed to take a set off Djokovic. However, Djokovic wants this win badly. He’s won bronze before, but wants gold. Djokovic had a shaky start in his opening round losing the first set to Fognini but clamped down to take the next two sets easily. He also got past Roddick easily today. Hewitt might push him more, but Hewitt is also coming back from injury. He did have a good win over Cilic, but he’d have to take his game to the stratosphere to bother Djokovic or hope Djokovic comes out way flat. If Djokovic plays his normal game, it should be too much for the Aussie.
How are top seeds playing?
Everyone’s playing pretty well so far. Federer was pushed some by Falla, but he was in control of the match, even if it was wobbly control. Murray’s probably been the most solid of the top three seeds, but it matters more at the end of the tournament than at the start. Finally, Djokovic had an off-set, but has played four strong sets since then. Tsonga is probably the biggest threat that’s not in the top 3 and Ferrer always gives folks a challenge. It will be interesting to see if this Olympics holds to form as they have failed to do in the past when players like Nicolas Massu have won gold.