If Monte Carlo is Nadal’s most successful tournament, then Barcelona has to be number 2.  Nadal recently won his 8th consecutive title at Monte Carlo.  He might be going for the same feat now had he not, in 2010, skipped the event, presumably to save his fragile knees.  But, for whatever reason, Nadal changed his mind last year and returned back to Barcelona.

Barcelona generally attracts mostly Spanish players and lower tier players.  Obviously, Nada’s presence and his success shows he’s the number 1 Spanish player in Spain.  Last year, he played the number 2 player in David Ferrer.  Turns out he’ll do the same this year.

But let’s rewind back,  Andy Murray, who has admitted clay is his weakest surface, decided to play Barcelona this year.  Murray lost to Berdych in Monte Carlo showing he’s still vulnerable to big hitting clay courters.  Murray lost to Berdych back in 2010 when Berdych made a run to the semis of the French.

Murray normally skips Barcelona.  This is the first time he’s played in some time.  Murray was thumped by Raonic’s big serve.  For his part, Murray kept the match close but lost 64 in the first.  It looked like he might lose by the same score in the second when he broke back at 54 down and forced a tiebreak, only to see the aggressive Raonic take the tiebreak.

They talk about the top 4 in Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray, although some argue it’s top 3, then Murray, then Ferrer.  It’s true that Tsonga is up there too, but his inconsistency means that you can sometimes knockout the Ali-lookalike.  Ferrer is a more solid number 5 who rarely loses to those below him, and that’s pretty solid.   Ferrer once again showed that he can beat the big boys, taking down Raonic in two tiebreaks.

Nadal who had to pull out of the Miami semis with knee issues, has shown that everything is back to normal on clay.  He played Fernando Verdasco in the semis.  Verdasco won this title back in 2010 when Nadal skipped the tourney.  Verdasco had a great 2009, but has been rather disappointing for the last two years.  His head doesn’t seem to keep in matches and he has a tendency to melt down despite a huge forehand.

So this leaves Nadal playing Ferrer, who he has a great record against.  No one expects Ferrer to beat Nadal, at least, not on clay.  Ferrer is likely to say that he’ll do what he can, but hard to beat the best player on clay.  Raonic might have produced an interesting final, but Ferrer is still too tough for these big hitters.

Nadal is likely to win a 7th title over Ferrer because Ferrer lacks big weapons.  He’s solid enough to pressure, and that’s why he does better than, say, Lleyton Hewitt (and Ferrer’s body holds up a lot better than the venerable Aussie), but not solid enough to hit winners from wherever that would make him dangerous enough to be a top 4 player.