Madrid is the third and final Masters 1000 clay court tournament leading up to the French Open. Monte Carlo was the first and Rome was the second.
Madrid was an indoors event last year, but it was moved to a clay tournament this year. Meanwhile, Hamburg was dropped from the Masters series. The official name is ATP World Tour Masters 1000 which is a bit of a mouthful.
Shanghai was added to the Masters 1000 tour to replace Madrid. Hamburg was demoted to an ATP 500 tournament.
Let’s start off with seeds:
- Rafael NADAL
- Roger FEDERER
- Novak DJOKOVIC
- Andy MURRAY
- Juan Martin DEL POTRO
- Andy RODDICK
- Fernando VERDASCO
- Gilles SIMON
- Jo-Wilfried TSONGA
- Nikolay DAVYDENKO
- Stanislas WAWRINKA
- David FERRER
- Marin CILIC
- James BLAKE
- Radek STEPANEK
- Tommy ROBREDO
Andy Murray is the defending champion. This was due to Madrid being moved from an indoors event, one that favors Murray, to a clay event. Although Madrid “replaces” Hamburg, the points from Hamburg in 2008 drop off this week. Hamburg 2009 will be played July 20. That is an ATP 500 event.
The points from Madrid 2008, the one where Murray is defending champion, don’t drop off until the Shanghai Masters is played in October (Shanghai “replaces” Madrid as the Masters 1000 indoors event). So Murray will still keep his Madrid 2008 points and effectively only need to defend his Hamburg points from last year.
Think of Hamburg 2009 as just another ATP 500 tournament. Effectively, players defend Hamburg 2008 points with Madrid 2009 points. Obviously, Hamburg organizers are not happy.
Although Murray has improved to a career high #3, the seedings were determined prior to that change, so he is seeded 4th at Madrid. Murray has yet to show that he is a huge threat on clay. On Tuesday, he won a tight match against Italian, Simone Bolleli, 7-6(9), 6-4. In interviews, he said he played very well, crediting Bolleli with playing well. Others would argue that he should make easy work of Bolleli because he’ll have to deal with tougher players.
Murray has a lot of work to do to reach the semifinals, or for that matter, the next round, as he faces Tommy Robredo next.
Of the upcoming matches, I’m curious how David Ferrer will do against Juan Monaco. Ferrer had been declining in the rankings, but he’s been playing better on clay lately, most recently reaching the Barcelona final, an ATP 500 event, losing to Rafael Nadal. Monaco did well in the Rome, losing to Fernando Gonzalez in the quarterfinals. I have to believe Ferrer is playing much better recently, and should be favored to win.
Verdasco is in the same quarter as Nadal and the two are expected to meet each other. Verdasco had an easy win over former number 1, Juan Carlos Ferrero, 6-3, 6-3.
Djokovic is in a fairly easy eighth. He plays wildcard, Oscar Hernandez, next, and the winner of Querrey and Seppi, after that.
Robredo-Murray should be a tough match for Murray. Although Jason has picked Robredo as his man during the clay court season, he lost to Juan Monaco in Monte Carlo in the round of 32, lost to David Ferrer in the quarters of Barcelona, and to Novak Djokovic in the round of 16. A win by Murray against a tough clay-courter like Robredo would show he’s making progress on clay.
A tough eighth is the one with del Potro, Berdych, Chardy, and Wawrinka. del Potro hasn’t had a great clay season so far, so it could be any of these four.
Andy Roddick returns back to play after his marriage. Unlike Federer, Roddick didn’t return to tour right away. He skipped Monte Carlo and Rome. This is his first clay event. He plays veteran Tommy Haas. Although Roddick was showing proficiency on clay last year until he got injured, no one knows how Roddick will fare this year. He’s in the same section as Davydenko, who has performed well in the smaller clay events in Estoril and Barcelona, reaching the semis of both.
Federer will take on the winner of Blake and Karlovic. Blake reached the finals at Estoril, so his confidence on clay is probably quite high. His high risk play and Karlovic’s big serve mean it’s a toss-up who wins that match. Federer has confidence playing both, so should get through that eighth.
Of the four quarters, Nadal and Djokovic are in the best form and should get through their quarters. Federer has a friendly enough section and should make it through as well. Murray is going to have to play well to get out of his quarter. That quarter seems the most up in the air.
I’d bet Federer-Nadal and Nadal to win. The question is whether Federer wants to meet Nadal before the French or not, but at this point, it would be a huge boost to his confidence to win Madrid. I would find it hard to believe Federer is intentionally trying to duck Nadal.
