Miami – ATP 1000 event (2nd of the year)
1. Nadal
2. Federer
3. Djokovic
4. Murray
5. Roddick
6. Del Potro
7. Simon
8. Verdasco
9. Monfils
10. Tsonga
11. Ferrer
12. Gonzalez
13. Blake
14. Nalbandian
15. Robredo
16. Wawrinka
My Pick: Nadal
Underdog Pick: Robredo (has to go through Fed in quarters)
Nadal Quarter: The reason this is titled Field vs. Nadal is not necessarily because he’s the top player in the draw… but in my opinion of the top seeds he has by far the trickiest draw out there.
After the first round bye and a routine second round he has potentially Ivo Karlovic… who is scary for anyone. Then Stanislas Wawrinka who is certainly an up and commer and in my opinion going to finish the year in the top 10. Following that he’s got the winner between Del Potro, Cilic (who has been hot lately) and Ferrer. Nadal pretty much has his way with Del Potro but Cilic and Ferrer could certainly prove a challenge.
All that being said, I still pick Nadal to make it through to the semi’s because right now he’s clearly the best tennis player on this planet.
Now to break it down a bit more with some notes. Cilic vs. Ferrer should be a phenomenal match. Ferrer has been around for a long time and in the top 10 for most of it. Cilic has had a great start to the year winning two titles already. In head to head action this year, Cilic took David down in straights at the Aussie round of 32. I’d pick Cilic to move on…
Del Potro vs. Cilic. Interestingly in the next round Cilic and DP played, with DP winning in 4. Since then I haven’t been too impressed with DP’s results (though he has 1 title this year) and I’ll pick Cilic to take it down this time.
Del Potro has been absolutely handled by Nadal 4 times including last week, Ferrer is a lifetime 3-6 against Nadal… and Cilic has never played him. Therefore if anyone is going to take down the giant in this quarter I’m giving the best odds to Cilic.
Murray Quarter: Murray first here with his second round matchup of Mardy Fish.. Fish has the capabilities to get beat 1 and 1 by Murray and to pull an upset, who knows what he’s bringing. Nalbandian vs. Gasquet is a funny matchup, but neither of them can get past Murray. Gonzalez vs. Stepanek could be one of the most even early round matchups in the tournament. I’ll take Stepanek due to his performances so far this year, but he’s a funky looking dude who with his worm dance always bothered me…. moving on we have Lopez vs. Verdasco potentially. However Sam Querrey is in Lopez’ second round and with the great underachievement he has done my guess would be Querrey wins. Verdasco beats Querrey, and then takes on Stepanek or Gonzalez. Stepanek leads Verdasco 3-1 lifetime… however Verdasco routed Radek only dropping 4 games in 3 sets at the Aussie open this year. Very tough call but I’ll pick Stepanek to make it through and on to Murray.
Without an injury plain old wimpy withdrawl or effort… Murray makes it through
Djokovic Quarter: Baghdatis vs. Mathieu should be interesting with the winner losing to Djokovic. Like most tennis fans, hoping Baghdatis can regain some of his lost form, though this probably isn’t going to be the tournament for it. Blake takes on Benneteau and then Youzhny/Berdych. Blake is the most talented of that group but as I’ve said multiple times his game is like playing Russian Roullette, so who knows who comes out of that.
Tsonga and Simon have easy draws until they play each other in the round of 16. You may see Simon vs. Hewitt in the second round and think that Simon is in for an upset, but Hewitt has done literally NOTHING recently. I kept waiting for him to come back and he simply isn’t… so I’m done waiting. Simon and Tsonga have played only once professionally with Simon winning in a third set TB! I’ll pick Tsonga to win on the fact that he has two titles already this year and has to have some added confidence from that. Tsonga then takes on Djokovic, and Tsonga has won their last 4 meetings (3 in ’08 and Marseille this year!). Tough not to pick Tsonga to move on.
Federer Quarter: This is not the quarter Federer was hoping to see. I’m hoping Fabrice Santoro can take down Kiefer (and he can…) to meet Fed in the second round. Robredo is going to take down Almagro in a battle to meet Federer after that… which could be where the Fed Ex runs into trouble. I know Robredo pulled out of Indian Wells against Murray with an injury but assuming thats recovered and he’s to the point he has been at for the last 3 months… this could be a very disappointing tournament for Roger. As a big Federer fan, I see 3 people right now that scare me: Nadal, Murray, Robredo.
Assuming your an active follower of the tour you’re thinking “Jason, Federer is lifetime 8-0 against Tommy, how is this scary?” Well my astute friends, They haven’t played since 07, and most of their matchups are from ’05 or before. Federer as well all know has been having some serious problems recently both mentally and physically and Robredo has been on fire. It takes more than just a good player playing great to beat Roger… but Robredo has the game style to take advantage of what Nadal and Murray do so well to Roger, bore and grind him down. Roger is VERY much hoping that Robredo gets downed before their matchup.
Then we have Roddick with potential trouble against Safin and Monfils. Obviously I’ve skipped over a couple guys including Tursunov whose a fine player in his own right… but Roddick is 3-1 against him and playing some of his best tennis in recent years right now, so that’d be a staggering loss in my opinion and not something I spend time on. (I may have just jinxed Roddick there) Roddick is 4-3 against Safin so that could be a tough call, but Roddick is playing some of his best tennis now and Safin is in the same boat as Hewitt… they are the guys you THINK are going to do well because of their talent or previous success but so far this year have been completely out of the picture. Monfils actually leads Roddick 3-2 but A-Rod won their last meeting this year in Doha while Monfils has had some disappointing results the past few weeks. I pick A-Rod to meet up with Federer/Robredo and to be honest has a chance to beat both of them, though he is the underdog against both.
Tricky call here, but with the way Federer has been and the fact he already pulled out of Monty Carlo, I’m taking Robredo… yes, Robredo to make it out of this quarter.
LOTS of good tennis, this draw again (as with most Tour 1000 events) is just as difficult as any Grand Slam minus a round… and I expect to see the same high level of tennis as we saw last week at Indian Wells.
