At the end of 2010, the pundits were proclaiming that we were back at the same old, same old.  Federer had beaten Nadal in the finals.   Everyone figure Roger was back.  2011 was going to be the Roger and Rafa show…again.

This was a far cry from what the experts said after Wimbledon.  Roger was finished.  He had lost in quarterfinals in two consecutive Slams.  In Paris, he lost to Soderling.  At Wimbledon, it was Berdych.

But Federer defied the critics.  He was runner-up in Toronto.  He defended his title in Cincy.  He reached the US Open semis.  He would win Stockholm, Basel, and the year-end championship to have a solid end to 2010.

Who knew Novak Djokovic, who had lost four times to Federer, would have the year of his life starting in 2011?

Djokovic would beat Roger Federer in the semis, then make Murray look silly in the finals.  He would win Dubai beating Federer in the finals.  He would win Indian Wells, beating Federer in the semis and beating Nadal in the finals.  He would win Miami, beating Nadal in the finals.  He would win Belgrade, after skipping Monte Carlo.

Skipping Monte Carlo made everyone wonder if his winning was over.  He was pushed to 3 sets by Ferrer and by Bellucci.  Everyone figured that Nadal was still the king of clay.

Djokovic started off a touch shaky.  He was down 15-40 in his initial serve, but managed to hold.  He then got to a break lead, then two breaks, but Nadal clawed back with one break back.  With Djokovic serving for the first set at 5-3, Nadal managed another break to get to 5-4 and back on serve.  Nadal tied it 5-all, but with Djokovic at 6-5, Djokovic again broke playing amazing shots to close out the first set, 7-5.

The second was similar, with each having a break.  Finally, at 5-4, Djokovic played an amazing return game to take the second set, 6-4.

So what does Djokovic do that, say, Federer doesn’t do?

First, Djokovic has become very good at defense.  He’s now able to get to shots that would normally cause other players to cough up a weak shot and hit such shots with authority.

This ability means Rafa can’t easily get ahead in a point like he does with most players.  Djokovic also moves the ball around well.  Late in the second set, Rafa kept hitting to Djokovic’s backhand.  Djoker alternated hitting down the line and crosscourt, preventing Rafa from getting into a rhythm to take over the point.

Roger had witnessed this at Melbourne, and was confused.  Should he slow down?  Should he hit harder?  When Roger gets pressured, he just tries to go for bigger shots.

And misses.

The second weapon that Djokovic has is his return of serve.  Time and again, Djokovic would pressure Nadal on return.  Fed, on the other hand, would often mistime the return and that would lead to an easy point by Nadal.  Djokovic put Rafa on the defense.  He does this better than almost anyone.

Djoker doesn’t have to go for huge shots like Murray does.  Everything he does is in his comfort zone.  Players who don’t have to change their style much often do better.  This is one reason del Potro tends to play Rafa well.  He plays his game, and it works well enough.  Murray has to play a foreign game to beat Rafa, and Murray does it better than almost anyone else.

So what’s next?

Djokovic just broke Borg’s consecutive win record (since the start of the year).  Apparently, the 33 match win for Borg incorrectly attributed Davis Cup wins.  It is 31 wins.  The win over Nadal is 32.  However, McEnroe’s 1984 streak seems a bit unassailable.  Djokovic would break this if he wins the French (or gets to the finals).

So Nadal’s 8-0 clay record is now 8-1.  It wipes away a tough loss to Rafa two years ago, one where Djokovic had match points.  Rafa said maybe Djokovic was favored due to this win streak.  Seems he was right.

Next week, it’s Rome, and the streak is put on the line once again.