Now that the tennis season is over, let’s take a quick look back at 2009 and a quick look forward.
Roger Federer. Federer started off 2009 making it to yet another Slam final. Although he started 2009 much like 2008, that is, struggling to find form, he still did his part by reaching the final. Federer faced his long-time rival, Rafael Nadal. Nadal had never reached the Australian Open final. Despite a marathon win over Fernando Verdasco, Federer chose not to run Nadal ragged, testing his fitness. Nadal, for his part, spun lots of serve to the Federer backhand. Even so, Federer managed to get to a fifth set, where he inexplicably collapsed. This lead to a tearful speech.
Federer took time off, including a scheduled match between Switzerland and the United States. Although he didn’t have a particularly great hardcourt season (the first of two) nor a clay season, he did manage to peak at Madrid where he beat Rafael Nadal in the finals. Then, the unexpected happened. Nadal failed to reach the finals of the French. Although Federer didn’t look on form, he got to the finals and beat Soderling, the player that knocked out Nadal.
Federer then took that win and had a pretty comfortable run to the Wimbledon finals where he faced a game Andy Roddick. Roddick played the best he’s ever played against Federer, but in the end, that history of beating Roddick so many times gave Federer confidence that if he kept on holding, Roddick would crack. Federer did win.
Federer had a good win in Cincinnati where he beat two of his top rivals, Djokovic and Murray. He again made it to another Slam final, and came within a few points of likely winning the US Open (he was serving for a 2 set to none lead) when his game came apart somewhat and del Potro used his power to confound the Swiss. Federer finally made it to the semis of the year-end championship where he lost to Davydenko.
Federer nearly had a fantastic year. Had he beaten del Potro, he would have won 3 of 4 Slams. However, when he lost to del Potro, the thought was that Federer was still fading. Despite his usual consistency reaching Slams, Federer has looked inconsistent at times, and only brilliant here and there. Even so, he played well when it counted. It’s just the times he didn’t play well were as numerous as in 2008.
Oh yes, Roger also got married and his wife gave birth to twins.
Rafael Nadal. Rafa generally starts to wear down sometime in the middle of the US Open Series. He typically starts off pretty well at the Australian Open, peaks during the clay events leading to the French, and generally culminates with a French victory. Nadal started off the year with a win over Federer in his third different Slam (having beaten him at the French several times, and Wimbledon for the first time in 2008).
Although he had a very solid clay season, Nadal might point to a semifinal victory in Madrid that hurt him and Djokovic equally. A semifinal that ran nearly 4 hours and match points to Djokovic before Nadal puled it out fatigued both players. Nadal would lose to Federer in the finals and then do something that he just doesn’t do at the French. He would lose to upstart Robin Soderling, a man he had beaten love and love only weeks before. Soderling would show it was no fluke by reaching number 9 in the world.
Nadal would skip Wimbledon and play sparingly up to the US Open, winning no tournaments. Although Nadal would reach the US Open semifinals, he would lose stunningly easily to del Potro, who would over power him 2, 2, and 2.
Nadal then took another break and played some of the indoors tournament and the year-end championship, winning no titles en route. Nadal looked vulnerable on the faster surfaces and lacked his usual dominance, possibly due to weight loss meant to protect his knee long-term. Nadal would get a key victory in the Davis Cup and help Spain win the cup for the second year in a row.
Novak Djokovic. By all accounts, 2009 was not a particularly good year for Djokovic. Used to reaching the semifinals of the Slams as a solid number 3, he retired due to the heat at the Australian Open to Andy Roddick in the quarterfinals. Although he played exceptionally well in the clay season, he could never get past Nadal who beat him Monte Carlo, Rome, and Madrid. He then lost shockingly in the 3rd round of the French to Kohlschreiber. Djokovic would then lose in Halle to Tommy Haas in the finals and then lose to him again in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon.
Djokovic would reach his only semifinal at the US Open where he lost tamely to Roger Federer, whose between the legs passing shot to set up match point was the highlight of the year. Djokovic would then play a superb indoor/hardcourt season after the US Open, winning in Beijing, Basel and Paris (indoors) when players like Federer, Murray, del Potro, and Roddick would spend most of the post US Open tournaments recovering. Only Nadal, who had some rest, actually played a fair bit of the post US Open season.
Djokovic lost his number 3 ranking to Andy Murray, partly due to some uneven play in parts of the year (early on and post French Open). He would regain the number 3 ranking again by year’s end. Although he didn’t perform well in Slams, he did win the most matches of any player in 2009.
Andy Murray. Murray would play some of his best tennis early in the year. He took Verdasco to five sets, but blamed illness for his early loss at the Australian Open. Murray would have his best clay court season ever, but mostly because he had been pretty inept on clay up until this year. A quarterfinal appearance at the French Open was his best ever. His semifinal loss to Nadal in Monte Carlo was his best showing at a clay event ever.
Murray would win 6 titles overall, but not reach a final of a Slam. His best appearance was a semifinal loss to Andy Roddick at Wimbledon. He would lose early to Marin Cilic at the US Open in the fourth round. Much was expected of Murray in 2009. Although he reached number 2 in the world, it was mostly due to Nadal losing early in the French and not playing Wimbledon. Murray would eventually return to the ranking he started with, number 4 in the world.
Juan Martin del Potro. del Potro would take a surprising ascent to the top 10 during the lead up to the US Open. del Potro would reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open losing easily to Federer in the quarterfinals. He’d reach the semifinals of the French, pushing Federer to five sets, but lose. Then, he’d inexplicably lose to Lleyton Hewitt who had worked hard to come back from surgery in the 2nd round of Wimbledon. del Potro would then make his biggest leap to the top, taking Roger Federer out in five sets at the US Open to win his first Slam.
del Potro would show that power wins, hitting harder than both Nadal and Federer during the US Open. del Potro then reached the final of the ATP World Tour Finals but lost in straight sets to Davydenko. del Potro also seemed a bit frail throughout the year. He suffered in the heat in Washington DC and Toronto and took time off in the middle of the post US Open tournaments. While del Potro peaked at the big events, he didn’t look particularly dominating in the smaller events. This may be the “Sampras” strategy where Sampras (now the Serena Williams strategy) would lose in smaller events to save himself for the Slams.
The rest of the top 10. Nikolay Davydenko saw his ranking fall out of the top 10 due to injury and time away from the tour. He ended the year on a high, beating Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, and del Potro in the last few weeks of the year. Davydenko is a smaller guy who uses his ability to play near the baseline, and hit four strokes immensely well (sharp crosscout forehand/backhand, down the line forehand/backhand).
Andy Roddick hired a new coach in Larry Stefanki. Stefanki had Roddick lose 15 lbs and work on his backhand and his net attack.
He played his best Slam in a while reaching the final of Wimbledon where he, once again, played Roger Federer. Although he was expected to lose tamely to Roger, he managed to push Federer to the limit, in a five-set thriller. Roddick expected to use this success to get him going to the US Open. However, he would find himself struggling against fellow Americans, losing to Sam Querrey in Cincinnati and John Isner at the US Open. Roddick would win only one title all year, a smaller event in Memphis. Roddick complained about the long tour during Shanghai and was forced to retire. He would not play the rest of the year.
Robin Soderling made the biggest splash ever, beating Rafael Nadal in the French Open. Nadal had yet to lose on the Paris clay. Nadal then complained about tendinitis in the knee. Soderling showed that this victory was no fluke. He would beat Davydenko in the following round (who beat Verdasco easily), then come from a break down in the fifth to beat Fernando Gonzalez (who beat Andy Murray), to reach his first final. Losing to Federer in a Slam would become a habit for Soderling all year. He’d lose to Roger in the fourth round of Wimbledon, then to Roger in the quarterfinals of the US Open.
Like Gilles Simon the year before, Soderling would be given a berth in the ATP World Tour Finals when Andy Roddick decided not to play because of injury. Soderling would make the most of his opportunity beating Rafael Nadal again then beating Novak Djokovic in straight sets. He’d reach the semifinals, but lost to Juan Martin del Potro.
Fernando Verdasco moved his game to the top 10. Although most pointed to his semifinal marathon against Nadal as the key match, others point to the Davis Cup final played about a month earlier where Verdasco delivered a key victory. Long considered a bit mentally frail, Verdasco beefed up his second serve, and ended the year in the top 10.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga also kept in the top 10. Perhaps one of his more notable victories was over Roger Federer in the summer in Montreal when Federer was up 2 breaks in the third set, and still beat Federer.
What’s ahead? The same questions that people asked in 2009 still apply to 2010. Many wondered if Roger Federer could come back and play sublime tennis. The answer was, kinda, sorta. Roger Federer reached all four Slam finals. However, he still looked much like he did in 2008. Part of the problems is the rest of the field catching up to Federer. Many chose to play Federer by being steadier than him and letting Roger beat himself. del Potro used power to attack Federer, and Davydenko used his quickness to beat him.
Roger claimed he was only at the midpoint of his career and that he was having a great practice and looked forward to a great 2010. Roger has often showed great confidence. Can he back it up in 2010? He had been called GOAT at the French Open, but such talk disappeared after the US Open.
For Rafael Nadal, the question is: is Nadal done? More and more players found themselves on the winning side against Nadal. Although Nadal looked very tough leading up to the French, since the US Open, he’s looked vulnerable. To be fair, Nadal has never looked great after the US Open. He’s generally played solid, but not won tournaments. This year, however, he seemed to struggle more in his victories. Almagro and Robredo came close to beating Nadal this year, something that used to never happen. Can Nadal return back to dominance, or is he having to deal with the fact that he might not be as good as he once was, and have to play differently to extend his career.
Novak Djokovic found himself struggling a bit early on. People felt Andy Murray was passing him by. However, Djokovic both played very well at the clay season and ended the year strong. Still, his Slam performance was at a notch below what he’s used to. Can he put in a better effort in 2010? He added Todd Martin to his coaching staff this year and it seemed to help some.
Although del Potro looked like the guy most likely to leap to the number 1 spot, injuries and fitness are still a question for the tall Argentine. But when he’s on, no one hits a forehand like del Potro. Many felt he had the most upside of the newcomers.
Many people point to Andy Murray as a can’t miss prospect, but he plays the equivalent of a “pusher” game at the highest levels. That means, he allows hard hitters to move him around while he gets shot after shot back. Murray is capable of going toe to toe with the best players. Witness his victory over Nadal at the 2008 US Open or a victory over him in early 2009. Murray struggles on clay because his flatter style of hitting prevents him from getting as much consistency as a player like Nadal. Clay tends to blunt his hitting style and leave him vulnerable to players like Gonzalez, del Potro, and Verdasco. Many hope Murray learns to blend hard-hitting where he dictates point play with his defensive style.
Questions abound for Andy Roddick. James Blake has already plummeted in rankings making Sam Querrey the second highest ranked American. Querrey might have made more progress had he not suffered a freak accident short after the US Open that left him off the tour for the remainder of the year. Can Roddick build on last year? There’s a sense he’s running out of time. He lacks the speed of the top players and their accuracy and inventiveness. However, he still has a big serve.
Finally, can Nikolay Davydenko win in the Slams? For a long time, it was he, not Djokovic, that was a solid number 3. However, unlike Djokovic, Davydenko never played the Slams well. For a man ranked as high as Davydenko, his endorsements are nowhere near what it should be. He lacks photogenic good looks and more importantly lacks important victories.
2008 introduced the tennis world to Juan Martin del Potro. Will 2010 bring someone new? Or will someone already in the top 10 make a key breakthrough? Or are the stalwarts at the top, Federer and Nadal, continue to show the dominance they’ve had for many years?
