The score says 63 64.  This would show a comfortable win over a difficult opponent.  It looks like one break a set, but it was actually four breaks, two in the first, two in the second, with Rafa getting one break back in each set.

The match was delayed a few hours because of rain that occurred just after the upset of Djokovic by Isner.  The two semis were supposed to be shown back-to-back with the hope that both could be covered in prime time on ABC in the United States.  It’s too bad the old major broadcast networks still control when matches are aired especially when they care less about tennis than the sports-centered stations like ESPN or Tennis Channel.

The match appeared to boil down to serve.  Federer was able to win as many first serves as second serves, both in the mid 60%.  Nadal won less on both first and second serve.  Federer was able to attack the net effectively as well.  Federer didn’t appear to slice the ball very much, and was moving well enough to his right to keep in rallies.  Nadal’s big shot is to hit to the Federer forehand.  With Federer cheating to his backhand so often (so he can hit more forehands), he leaves that side open.

This is a bit surprising.  Nadal took some time off to get his head straight, and while he started the tournament well, when it came to crunch time, Nadal has not looked much better than before.  He struggled a bit to get past Nalbandian.  Give credit to Nalbandian–he played well, but Nadal’s desire to be more aggressive is coming at a price: making more unforced errors.  Give credit to a player like Isner who hits big and makes just few enough unforced errors to make his game dangerous.

These days, Nadal is finding himself in longer rallies and not winning the lion’s share.  One wonders how he’s faring mentally.

I favored Nadal heading into the match because I felt it was a similar scenario to Australia.  Federer came into the semis playing good tennis, perhaps as good as anyone in the field, and yet he couldn’t get past Nadal.  To be fair, Federer has looked awfully sharp since Australia, especially in his first encounter against del Potro in Dubai and against Murray.  Federer talked about getting back to number 1, and he’s starting to look like his game may come together to make a threat.

To be sure, it’s a long road ahead.  First, as much as Nadal might have wanted to win Indian Wells, he focuses on the Slams.  Once he gets on clay, that’s when his season really begins.  Still, with Nadal’s showing some doubts, will that make him vulnerable when the clay season starts.  Nadal has been the most dominant clay courter ever.  He loses maybe twice a year on clay, if that.  Reality says that only a handful of players really have a chance to bother Nadal.  If Nadal is vulnerable to Djokovic and Federer, he’s not vulnerable to Almagro or Bellucci.

In any case, this is a huge victory for Federer.  He hasn’t beaten Nadal on an outdoor court since 2005, and that was their second meeting ever back in Miami.  Since then, Nadal has beaten Federer at the Australian Open in 2009 and 2012, in Dubai in 2006, and in Miami last year.  Federer has done a lot better indoors where the lack of conditions works to his favor.

The final is an improbable one.  Federer has already played a big server in Raonic earlier on, and he faces another in Isner.  He’ll probably be slightly favored despite Isner beating Federer on clay.  At least on hard courts, Federer can hit with more pace and the ball sits up less, though Indian Wells sits up more than most.

If Federer wins, he’ll be within 1000 points of Nadal.  Djokovic would lose about 600 points and is still about 3000 points ahead of Nadal.  Djokovic will only come back to the field if he fails to win some Slams and comes back.  Right now, as defending champ of 3 of 4 Slams, he has a hefty lead.

2012 could shape up to be an interesting year for men’s tennis.