Many fans must be curious how Nadal could come back so quickly.  Nadal, of course, would not come back half-hearted.  He’s taken breaks before, and he knows what he needs to do to beat good players.  In a way, he got lucky that Federer was not at his best, but in a way, Federer got unlucky that Nadal had lost very little of what he had when he played his last official match of 2012.

Of the players not in the “Big 4”, del Potro seems the most likeliest to break through.  Ferrer?  As solid as he is, he seems intimidated by all but Murray.  Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic seem to own Ferrer, and he lacks the firepower to break through this group.  Berdych is a little too slow.  Tsonga seems a bit too mercurial.  del Potro ought to be slow for his size, but he seems to move really well and hides his deficiencies.  It doesn’t hurt that he has a big serve, and can bludgeon that forehand.  The serve paid dividends against both Murray and Djokovic who struggled to return his serve.

The answer is “yes”, del Potro can beat Nadal, but the question is whether, after two tough matches against Djokovic and Murray, he can.  Nadal will enter the finals much fresher.  He beat both Federer and Berdych in straight sets, and will look to push the tall Argentine to run.

del Potro’s best chance is not to feel too much fatigue from yesterday’s match.  The good news is that del Potro tends to show good resilience in situations like this.  When he first came on the tour, the heat seemed to bother del Potro, and yet, he managed to plow through those matches, often winning.

Also, del Potro always seems to play within himself.  Most players, playing against the best, up the risk level, take more chances, and thus make more errors.  Look at Berdych playing Nadal.  He struggled to keep his shots in the court, and felt he had to take chances to win, and so error built upon error, and he was gifting Nadal points.  del Potro seems to restrain himself to shots he knows he can make.  That belief in his own game should pay off because it means he doesn’t go for huge shots just to go for huge shots.

In that way, he’s a bit like Ferrer, but with bigger weapons.

The other big weapon is that forehand.  It may not be as big as it used to be, but it’s still pretty huge, and he was able to keep both Djokovic and Murray on the defense with that shot.  The good news is that he can belt that forehand relatively frequently.  It’s not like he’s going for broke and hoping it goes in.

Still, Nadal has to be favored.  Two three setters for del Potro, a third day of consecutive play, and a champion’s mentality means that Nadal is still likely to get the title.  Certainly, del Potro will have Argentinian pride, the kind that seems to want to show up big brother Spain.  He used this passion to push himself to a bronze medal win.  Can he do the same to pull a win in the desert?