There were some records that were going to be broken at some point.  On the one hand, Rafa had done very well at Indian Wells in odd years, winning in 2009 and 2007.  He had also been 5-0 over Djokovic in finals, a fact that apparently he didn’t know this head-to-head result when it was mentioned to him in the pre-match interview.  On the other hand, Djokovic was undefeated in 2011 having won the Australian Open and Dubai beating Roger Federer twice.

Usually, when Rafa returns off a lengthy break, he shows up a little rusty.  He had only played Davis Cup since Australia.  But not this time.  He looked pretty solid in his early matches.  Sure, Karlovic pushed him, but a big server can do that.

The common wisdom was Djokovic was the hottest player and had beaten Federer in Dubai and the Australian Open and seemed poised to beat Nadal.  But, there were Nadal supporters who still distrust Djokovic’s mental focus, or simply don’t like his joking nature that sometimes seems on the border of arrogance.  They prefer Nadal’s never-say-die attitude that speaks more modesty.  This, despite the fact that Djokovic and Nadal get along quite well.  Indeed, both are headed to Colombia for an exhibition before heading to Miami for the next Masters 1000 event.

Nadal started off the match with two things in mind.  Hit hard serves, like he did back in the Australian Open.  Hit hard shots and try to be aggressive against Djokovic.  Djokovic, of course, wanted to do the same to Rafa.  This lead to a lot of long exchanges early in the first set with Nadal win his fair share.  Djokovic, who Gasquet said had the best return, was struggling to break serve and hold his own.

When Rafa won the first set, it wasn’t clear that Djokovic could actually break Rafa.  But several things happened.  First, Nadal’s serve started going sour.  He started to miss and miss and miss first serves.   He wanted a big serve so he could hold his own serve more easily, then pressure Djokovic’s serve.  Second, Djokovic started to attack the Rafa backhand more.  Third, Rafa, who seemed mostly flawless in the first set, began missing shots.

This lead to a break in the middle of the second set for Djokovic and he felt pretty good.  But Rafa toughened up in the next game and broke back.  Djokovic then broke a second time.  Serving for the second set, Djokovic had to work hard to hold, as he had break points, then deuce-ad, deuce-ad, before finally winning the set on his serve.

Rafa’s serve continued to do poorly, but Rafa stubbornly kept going after big shots.  Djokovic’s confidence was now elevated while Rafa seemed upset about his own mistakes, and the two had practically reversed roles.  Djokovic broke Nadal, then broke him a second time, before Nadal held serve twice and Djokovic served out the match to stay undefeated.

Djokovic will move up to number 2 ahead of Federer. Djokovic trails Federer by 165 points.  He picked up 910 points by winning Indian Wells over last year.  Federer picked up 455 points over last year.  This is a net of 455 point gain over Federer.  That’s still pretty close.

The points are close enough that Federer might be able to reclaim 2, but this seems somewhat unlikely.  Both Federer and Djokovic did not do well in Miami.  Djokovic lost in the 2nd round to Rochus and only had 10 points at Miami.  Federer did two rounds better, but lost to Berdych, and had 90 points.  Fed would probably need to reach the finals and have Djokovic lose quite early on.  If he won Miami, the Djokovic would have to lose in the semis for Federer to catch up.

Djokovic may be number 2, but just as Federer’s lead over Djokovic was slim, so is Djokovic’s lead over Federer.

And Rafa?  He, too, gained points by reaching the finals.  Consider how many upsets there were last year.  Andy Roddick played Ivan Ljubicic in the finals (and lost to him).  Ljubicic beat both Rafa and Djokovic en route.  Rafa had reached the semifinals.  So this is an improvement over last year.

So now action turns to Miami.  Miami is more humid than Indian Wells.  The big question there is whether Andy Murray, who lost early, is ready to play good tennis again.  With the Djokovic win, the question has now shifted to whether he can reach number 1.  He’s beaten Roger and Rafa in the same tournament.  The common wisdom is that Murray has regressed backwards and is repeating his moping from last year where he didn’t start to play well until Wimbledon.

Murray trains in Miami and it’s his home base, but last year, he lost to Mardy Fish, one of 3 losses he had to Fish that year (also lost to him in Queen’s and in Cincinnati).  And, there’s still del Potro’s comeback.

Federer has questions about his own game.  I don’t think he would have beaten Nadal had he reached the final.  Nadal will mostly look to tweak his serve and make sure he can get a high percentage.  Normally, he serves close to 70%, but he was nowhere close.

This tournament went mostly to form minus Murray and Soderling’s loss.  Let’s see how it looks in Miami.