If you had asked me, a week before Wimbledon, if I thought Roger Federer could win Wimbledon, I’d say sure, he could, but that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic would be favored, and possibly Andy Murray, though, at the time, he was the big unknown.  He hadn’t had a good tournament in quite sometime, arguably since the Australian Open or perhaps Dubai or Miami where he reached the finals.  Murray didn’t do well on the clay, certainly not approaching what he did last year.  His loss to Ferrer was, nonetheless, understandable.  Ferrer’s a tough guy to beat on clay and it’s the one surface that Murray would be considered an underdog.

Both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal play backboard tennis against Federer.  They want to force Federer hit 3 or more shots beyond what he wants to win a point.  Once that happens, Federer will go for ill-advised shots to shorten the points.  This is an unusual strategy, to be fair.  Few players can outhit Federer however which is why he wins so much.  But few can get to enough of Federer’s hard shots and send back a decent shot that doesn’t put them on the defensive.  Both Federer and Nadal can do this, and so it frustrates Federer.

Going into Wimbledon, a few things were probably obvious to Federer.  First, he’s lost Wimbledon early the last few years.  That’s because he ran into players that he couldn’t break serve.  Last year, he had one opportunity to break Tsonga’s serve.  Just one.  He broke, but that wasn’t enough.  Against Berdych, a similar story.  He found it very difficult to break Berdych.  Against Roddick, the year before, he broke only once and relied on tiebreaks.  Against Nadal, the year before, he didn’t have break opportunities after the second set, and again, relied on tiebreaks to keep in the match (though he eventually lost).  Federer had to get into other player’s games.

Second, if he was going to find himself in trouble breaking serve, he needed his own serve to be impeccable.  This was the Pete Sampras strategy except Pete would often ace the opponents when he was down.  In the old days, Sampras, Becker, McEnroe, and Lendl all had an uncanny knack of hitting aces when they most needed it.  Federer?  Not so much.  If he had that skill, it would frustrate his opponents terribly.  Federer is a placement serve that varies spin and location and hits precise spots.  He doesn’t hit a serve above 130 mph almost ever.

Third, he had to up the level of his backhand.  While his backhand has been perfectly serviceable, Federer has almost always used it just to keep the ball in play.  He rarely rips winners off the backhand.  It’s not a bad backhand, by any means, but he doesn’t run around the backhand because it’s fun.  His forehand is the much bigger weapon.  The problem is that it had become both a little too defensive and too inconsistent.  Federer needs a backhand that an opponent can’t suddenly turn the offense up on, and it needs to be steady so errors don’t make it easy to pick on this shot.

Federer appeared to reach this point with his backhand back in 2010 in the Australian Open, but he took time off, and the backhand seemed to take a step back.  His backhand was starting to look a lot better at the end of last year, probably due to the lack of conditions indoors.  When there’s no wind, Federer can be even more precise with the backhand.  His revamped backhand was one reason he was able to bully Djokovic in backhand-to-backhand rallies.  Rallies that, in the past, would seem to favor Djokovic, but time and again, with the damp grass making Djokovic’s footing unsure, Roger was able to play long rallies and then zip to his side to play a forehand.

Of course, for Federer to reach this point, he had to overcome a few issues.  Against Benneteau, perhaps there were indications his back was bothering him, but Benneteau came oh-so-close to knocking Federer out of the tournament in a fourth set tiebreak.  Federer didn’t have to save match points, but he was 2 points shy of a loss.  Then, it was Benneteau’s turn to have his own injury issues (cramping, most likely), and Federer closed that set quickly.

Federer got a little lucky with Malisse.  With his back bothering him, Fed was really serving at slow pace and hitting off-pace forehands.  Malisse was so confused that even when he achieved a first set break, he gave it back in the next game, and lost the tiebreak handily.  Federer recovered just well enough to play a few good shots, especially off his backhand.  A hobbled Federer, it seems, is more than a match for poor Xavier.

Federer peaked against Djokovic who struggled mightily with Federer’s serve.  Despite losing the second set, the match was played on Federer’s terms.  Points were quick, rallies short.  Djokovic hit a bad patch at the worst possible moment, at the end of the third set, where he was broken, and at the start of the fourth set, where he was broken again.  But clearly, Federer’s ability to stay in rallies with Djokovic in the third set had Djokovic rattled.  The second set was more to Djokovic’s liking where Federer couldn’t quite get on top of the rallies.

In the finals, Federer wanted to attack the Murray second serve, but he did it at judicious moments.  Early in the third set, with Murray up 40-0 and looking to hold easily, Federer hit two very hard returns and Murray missed both shots.  This game went on to deuce after deuce with Murray unable to come up big in the points he needed them most (his ad points), but big when he was down break point.   This game was decisive because had Murray hung on, he might have been able to get out of the third set, like he did the first set.  Already, it was bad news that Murray had to dig himself out of a hole.  Even though Murray is adept at doing this, it’s not somewhere a player wants to be.

Federer was able to hit great offensive shots when needed and Murray was a bit unlucky slipping at key points where he needed sure footing.  This match was probably closer than it looked with Federer winning the decisive points.  Federer likes to win matches like this.  Sure, it’s great when he can thump a Youzhny who was helpless to reach power forehands, but against the best players, Fed prides himself with winning the big points, and he did that in spades against Murray.

Oh yes, Federer continues to work on his net game.  With players so adept at passing, Federer is approaching more up the middle and reducing the angles.

So in the end, I was surprised how well Federer hit his backhand, how he seemed to up the level of aggression, and push Murray into furious defending, which is a hard spot to be in.

And Federer wants to do it once again at the Olympics.  I don’t know if he can do it, but he’ll certainly be favored.