Around the time that Andy Murray was winning Shanghai which was about October, he announced that he wanted to finish the year at number 3.

It seemed a modest goal, but both Djokovic and Nadal were so far ahead that reaching anything higher than number 3 was a mathematical impossibility.  Djokovic and Nadal were too far ahead that even if Murray won every match he played to the end of the year, he would not reach number 2.

Murray wasn’t just hoping to reach number 3.  He felt he had the numbers on his side.  He didn’t have to play brilliant to reach there, and Federer did have to play brilliant to duplicate the results in 2010.  Murray thought Federer couldn’t do this with Djokovic and himself in the way.

The first reason Murray thought he would get to number 3 was his run of three titles in Asia: Bangkok, Tokyo, and Shanghai.   Not only did this add points to his ranking, but it gave him confidence.   He felt if he could continue to play at this high level, he had chances to beat Federer and chances to pick up even more titles and points.

Indeed, once Murray won Shanghai, he trailed Federer by 800 points, which included points that Federer lost for not playing Shanghai.

Second, Federer made an announcement after the US Open stating that he need to recover and wouldn’t play Shanghai.  He planned his return at Basel.  That meant Federer would lose his finalist points at Shanghai, and he would also lose his points at Stockholm which he won in 2010.  (Federer rarely plays Stockholm, but he played last year so he could break Sampras’s career titles with his 65th title at Basel).  Those lost points meant Murray would continue to catch up to Federer.

Indeed, when the rankings came out on October 24, the week after Shanghai, Murray took a small lead over Federer.  He had 7,825 points while Federer was behind by a little at 7,530.  Rankings are based on results for the past year, so Federer still had points he had earned at Basel, Paris, and London the previous year.

These points can be deceptive.  Federer had an extremely strong end of the year last year.  He reached the finals of Shanghai.  He won Stockholm.  He won Basel.  He reached the semis of Paris.  He won London.  He was defending a tremendous amount of points.  Most of these points were still in Federer’s ranking, and Murray knew this.  It meant that a small 300 point lead was actually, potentially, much bigger than that.

It’s better to look at the year-to-date rankings, that is, points accumulated since January.  In that ranking, Murray lead by a whopping 7,200 point to 5,185 points or just a smidgen over 2000 points.  This was a huge cushion.

Federer could earn, at most, 3000 points between Basel and London.  He could pick up 500 points in Basel, 1000 points in Paris (a tournament he had never won nor reached the finals), and 1500 points in London (if he swept).  Winning three tournaments in a row, even for the great Roger Federer, would be very tough.  Meanwhile, with his 2000 point lead, Murray only had to pick up 1000 points in that same time period.

Murray had not planned to play an event until Paris, the last Masters 1000 of the year, but at the last minute, he decided to take a wildcard into Basel.  He was hoping to pick up points in Basel and increase his distance with Federer, but more importantly, he was hoping he could beat Federer, or at least, Djokovic could.  With both of them entered, Federer might have a tough time defending Basel.  But luck turned Federer’s way.  Murray was injured before his first match and had to withdraw from Basel.  Djokovic was also bothered by his shoulder and did not reach the final to play Federer.

So Murray, hoping to pick up points in Basel, picked up nothing.

In Paris, he recovered enough to play, but played a pretty hot Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals.  Murray could not play the dominating points he had used to manhandle Roddick.  He was playing defense throughout, and although he played really well, it wasn’t enough.  Murray thus picked up only 180 points out of the max 1000 points.

Federer went on to win Paris and picked up a hugely needed 1000 points.  That 1000 points reduced the gap between him and Murray to 710 points (there’s a 15 point discrepancy which seems to be due to Davis Cup points dropping off in Federer’s ranking).  If Federer reached the finals of London, he would pick up at least 600 points, but more likely, 800 points if he had two round-robin victories.  If Federer won, then he’d have more than enough points to surpass Murray.

Between October 24, and the start of London, Murray earned 180 points which he picked up for reaching the quarterfinals at Paris.   Federer, meanwhile, won Basel and Paris, and picked up 1485 points.  He should have picked up 1500 points, but apparently his Davis Cup points must have dropped off which was worth 15 points.  Thus, Murray had 2015 + 180 = 2195 points, but Federer took 1485 points by Paris and Basel, for a net lead of 710 points to Murray.

Federer, instead, maxed out and won 1500 points.  So basically Federer earned 2985 points, and despite Murray’s 2015 point lead in late October, Murray only picked up 180 points during that same time period.  Federer effectively picked up a Grand Slam title worth of points plus a Masters 1000 worth of points in that three tournament run.

So what does this mean?  It means basically that Federer was the only healthy player at the end of the year playing good tennis.  Neither Nadal, Djokovic, nor Murray were playing very good tennis in the last month, and this allowed Federer to gain a huge number of points while not playing most of his rivals.  Indeed, during this entire period, Federer only met one top 4 player, and that was was Rafael Nadal in the round-robin.  No doubt, Federer would have manhandled Djokovic in the semis unless Djokovic was able to turn on the magic again.

Does this result carry on into 2012?  It didn’t last year.  However, Djokovic doesn’t have a Davis Cup to raise his spirits.  He’ll have to figure out how to get back to his game which seemed to shut down after the US Open.  Nadal appears to be worried about whether he can play top tennis, though he wasn’t entirely healthy (had a stomach ailment against Fish) at London.  Murray has to hope he has no freak injuries and gets back to top shape.  It had to be sorely disappointing ending.

One has to imagine these three players will begin to play quality tennis in 2012.  And, then there’s players like del Potro and Soderling who are looking to return back to the top ten.  del Potro is ranked 11 while Soderling is at 13.  Soderling had a bad case of mono, and it knocked him out for half a year.  The good news for Soderling is he’s got no points to defend in the second half of the year.  The bad news is he’ll have to defend them at the start of the year.

I tend to think watching one set of tournaments doesn’t tell you as much as you hoped, but certainly, Federer wants to feel good heading into 2011, and of all the top four, he gets to feel that the most.

So the chase that Murray had hoped for fizzled while Federer played great and managed to slip past Murray for number 3 in the world.  It may not sound great, but it sounds better than number 4.