Everyone knew this would be a tough opener for Federer, regardless of who he faced.  On the one hand, he could face Marcos Baghdatis, the guy who beat him in Indian Wells.  On the other, Ernests Gulbis, who everyone said could be the next great player as long as 3-4 years ago.  Hard to believe he’s only 21 years old.  For a while, Gulbis’s career appeared to be in a tailspin.  He was doing without a coach, and was losing to players that had less talent, but more focus, more tennis smarts.

2010 looked like a new year for Ernests.  In particular, he won Delray Beach over Ivo Karlovic doing what few could do to the tall Croatian–return his serve.  Playing Baghdatis in the first round wasn’t exactly a walk in the park.  Indeed, Gulbis had never beaten Baghdatis.  But with a new coach (Hernan Gumy, hired last year), Gulbis was finding focus to tame his big serve and groundstrokes, and this lead to a 6-2, 6-2 win.

Federer started off quick enough, with a 6-2 opening set, but Gulbis turned it around and took the second set just as easily, 6-1.  Gulbis then took an early break over Federer, leading 3-1, then 4-2, then, 5-3.  Federer needed to again fight off match points on his own serve, and then held to 5-4.  Gulbis had match points on his own serve, but was trying to gun for big second serves to win the match easily, but double-faulted twice and eventually lost serve to let Federer tie it up 5-all.

Alas, Federer wasn’t ready to put the hammer down, and found himself down break points again on his own serve and then down the break, 6-5.  His last two games saw him missing every first serve save one, letting Gulbis get a good look on nearly every serve.  Finally, Gulbis fought nerves and finished the match, taking it 7-5 in the third.

What does this result mean?  Federer hadn’t played since an early loss to Berdych at Miami.  In each of his losses, he’s gone three sets, and even had match points against Baghdatis and Berdych.  Federer fought off match points against Gulbis who was hitting the ball well, but Federer didn’t help matters by missing a ton of first serves.  One odd question to ask is whether Federer cares to win matches outside the Slams.  Make it look good and then go back and practice some more.   Although Gulbis certainly is talented, Federer’s numerous missed serves and his usual “going for big shots” and missing shows Fed playing less than his best in events outside the Slam.

Fed is in doubles this year, however, playing with Yves Allegro, also of Switzerland.  Perhaps he’ll focus on doubles.

In other results, Almagro needed three sets to beat Kubot.  Lopez beat Becker in straight sets.  Fed’s countryman, Stan Wawrinka, won his match over Jurgen Melzer, 6-1, 6-2.  Troicki won over de Bakker when de Bakker retired in th third set.  Bolelli beat Greul in straights and Hewitt outlasted Youzhny in 3 sets.  These were first round matches.

In other second round matches, Hanescu played two tight sets to beat Monaco, and Djokovic had an easy, 6-1, 6-1 win over Chardy.

Andy Murray is scheduled to play later today.