Here’s the problem with predicting French Open favorites.

It’s hard to make accurate predictions, at least based on recent performance.

Let’s look at last year.  Last year, three players had a pretty good clay court season.  Rafa won Monte Carlo, skipped Barcelona, won Rome, and won Madrid.  He was the clear favorite to win the French Open, and indeed, he did win.

Then, there was Fernando Verdasco.  In 2010, he reached the finals of Monte Carlo, beating Novak Djokovic along the way.  He won Barcelona the following week over Soderling.  He lost to David Ferrer in the semifinals of Rome.  He lost in the round of 16 in Madrid to Jurgen Melzer.  He reached the finals of Nice against Gasquet and lost to him.

How did Verdasco do at the French?  He lost in the fourth round.  He probably played too many matches, wore himself out, and didn’t go as far as he should have.  Indeed, he played rather poorly for the rest of the year.

The other player that was playing well was David Ferrer.  He lost to Rafa in the semis of Monte Carlo.  He lost to Verdasco in the semis of Barcelona.  He lost in the finals of Rome to Rafa.  He lost in the semis of Madrid to Federer.  Indeed, arguably, he had at least as good a summer clay season as Verdasco.

But he was eliminated in the third round by Jurgen Melzer.

Let’s talk about who did do well.  Namely, Jurgen Melzer.

Melzer lost in the second round of Monte Carlo to Philipp Petzschner.  He lost in the third round of Barcelona to Verdasco.  He lost in the opening round of Rome to Wawrinka.  He lost in the quarterfinals of Madrid to Almagro.  Furthermore, he had never been past the third round of any Slam despite being on the tour as long as Roger Federer.

And how did Melzer do?  He reached the semis beating David Ferrer and Novak Djokovic en route and within a year, worked his way up to the top ten in the world.

I think it’s safe to say no one predicted Melzer would do this well at the Slams.

The year before, 2009, is even more instructive.  Nadal wins Monte Carlo over Djokovic in the finals.  He wins Rome over Djokovic in the finals.  He beats Djokovic in the semis of Madrid, and loses to Federer in the finals.

Djokovic loses in the third round to Kohlschreiber.  Nadal loses in the fourth round to Soderling who reaches the final, and is in the top ten by the end of the year.

And what was Soderling’s path to his first Slam final?  Lost in the first round at Monte Carlo to Bolelli.  Lost in the second round of Barcelona to Starace.  Loses 1 and love to Nadal in Rome in the third round.  Loses to Federer in the second round of Madrid.

If Melzer’s run to the semis was improbable, Soderling’s was even more so in 2009.  Gael Monfils run to the semifinals in 2008 is also improbable.  The man was playing challengers leading up to the French Open.

The point is, it’s hard to predict what will happen to the French Open because, in the last few years, someone, out of nowhere, does fantastically well.

I mean, we can point to the “usual suspects”.  Perhaps del Potro will do well.  But he was apparently sidelined with a “rectal injury”.  Perhaps Davydenko will finally get his game in shape, but so far, it doesn’t look good.  Can Murray really make it deep at the French?  That would be a surprise, despite performing quite well.

Let’s look at the favorites heading into the French.

Rafael Nadal

It’s hard to deny Rafael Nadal.  He’s won the title five times.  He’s lost it once.  That’s it.  The proclaimed king of clay loves Paris and knows how to win Paris.   And if it weren’t for Novak Djokovic, Nadal would be the hottest player on tour.  Who has Nadal lost to this year?  Nikolay Davydenko in Doha (he was sick), David Ferrer in Melbourne (he was injured), and Novak Djokovic four times.

Rafa may not win the French, but he’s expected to go deep.  And the reason he may not win?

Novak Djokovic

The hottest player on tour.  You had to be surprised.  2010 was an off-year for every top player, save Rafael Nadal, who won 3 of 4 Slams.  Roger Federer failed to reach the semifinals of a Slam for the first time in years.  Not only did he lose once in the quarterfinals, he lost twice.  Once to Soderling at the French Open, still his only loss to the Swede in official competition, and once to Berdych at Wimbledon.

To be fair, Roger actually did quite well after Wimbledon.  He reached the semis of the US Open with match points to reach the finals.  He won Stockholm, Basel, Cincinnati, was a finalist at Toronto, Shanghai, reached the semis of Paris Indoors, and won the year-end championships.  But, Slam-wise, it was an off-year for Roger.  Even when he played “poorly” in 2008, he was reaching Slam finals.

Andy Murray also had a subpar year.  He reached his second Slam final ever at Melbourne, but his loss to Roger Federer sent his game in a tailspin, and he didn’t really recover until the middle of the clay season.  He won Toronto and Shanghai, but he won six titles the year before.

Novak Djokovic also had a subpar 2010.  He won Dubai and Beijing.  The year before he won the most matches of anyone, but didn’t reach the final of a Slam.  He didn’t reach the final of a Slam in 2010 either.

How things change.  Djokovic was seen as the perpetual number 3.  He had lost to Federer 4 of 5 times in 2010.  He lost twice to Nadal (at the US Open and at the year-end championship).

Since then, he hasn’t lost.  He won the Australian Open, Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid, Belgrade, and Rome.  It’s not just 7 titles, but it’s one Slam, four Masters 1000.  On top of that, he’s beaten Federer 3 times, Nadal 4 times, twice on his beloved clay after never beating him on clay, and twice over Murray, the closest guy to stopping the streak.

So, assuming his health holds up, he should be considered the favorite to win the French Open, or at least co-favorite.  Nadal has to hope either a hot player beats him or his accuracy goes off or, alas, he gets injured.  Right now, he lacks answers to Djokovic’s game, but one wonders if he can play at this level.

Roger Federer

To be honest, Roger Federer isn’t playing that bad.  OK, so he loses matches to players he shouldn’t like his recent loss to Gasquet.  And, he hasn’t beaten either of his top rivals this year (Djokovic and Nadal), but he still wins against most players.  The problem is that he doesn’t seem to have made the leaps in his game that either Nadal or Djokovic has.  His backhand is better, but still not enough to make a dent in Nadal or Djokovic’s game.  This has to be mildly frustrating.

Still, Roger should be good for a few rounds, but Roger is more vulnerable than usual and has been, despite how well he ended 2010.

Andy Murray

Normally, Murray isn’t considered a favorite at the French.  For a long time, he hadn’t been past the third round of any clay event.  Last year, he was trying to recover from a bit of burnout where he lost to Soderling in the quarters of Indian Wells then Mardy Fish at Miami.  He lost early in Monte Carlo to Kohlschreiber.  He then lost twice to Ferrer, but felt he did better.  Alas, Murray does what he does so often.  He manages to lose to a player that goes deep and he lost to Berdych.

This year, he again lost in the finals of Melbourne and his game went even further south.  Losses to Soderling and Fish is not so bad really.  But to Donald Young and to Alex Bogomolov?  He eventually recovered at Monte Carlo, of all places, and reached the semis losing to Rafa after taking a set off him.  He lost to eventual semifinalist Thomaz Bellucci in Madrid.  He then came as close as anyone to beating Djokovic in Rome, though he had a pretty nice draw.

It’s still a tall order for Murray to go deep because it’s best of 5 sets and he’s more likely than any of the top players to have a lapse in his game, but this has been his best clay season yet, so he’s probably aiming to reach the quarters again.  He has seemingly figured out how to play clay, blending his newfound power game, with some on-court savvy.

Robin Soderling

Two time finalist, Robin Soderling, has not been playing that well this year.  He and Magnus Norman parted ways at the end of 2010.  He hired Italian, Claudio Pistolesi, and had a very good start to 2011, but his game seemed to sputter, and he has since parted ways with Pistolesi as well.

It would be quite amazing to see him go deep at Paris, though he has the kind of game that bothers a lot of people.  The problem is getting his game back in order.  The good news is, in past years, he hasn’t had a good clay season leading into Paris, and still did well anyway.

David Ferrer

Ferrer reached the semis of the Australian Open by beating compatriot, Rafa Nadal.  However, he is recently injured, otherwise, he would be considered someone favored to go deep.  If he does recover, he poses a threat to almost anyone, but alas, he has trouble beating the top 3.

Jurgen Melzer

Melzer was the surprise last year.  Having never been past the third round of a major, Melzer came from nowhere, beat Ferrer, beat Djokovic, and to show it was no fluke, ended the year in the top ten.  Still, can one expect this lefty to reach the semis again?  With the top 3 players in good form and Murray doing well, he has to hope to be in Federer’s quarter or possibly Murray.

Darkhorses

Hmm, well, Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin del Potro come to mind.  del Potro was injured recently causing him not to play Rafa.  This makes him a bit iffy for the French, so I don’t expect as much.  Gasquet is playing decently so I could see him going a bit further.

If Davydenko could ever get his game back in shape, he would be a threat, but he’s lacking confidence, and his game really needs that to succeed.  Bellucci had a nice small run in Madrid.  Is he up for it again?  Heck, even Gulbis might surprise though he’s not played a good Slam in years.  Florian Mayer has done well.  Mardy Fish has even played respectably on clay too.  He slips back into the top ten with Andy Roddick at number 11.  A good showing would help them stay near there.

The tournament starts in a few days.  I believe the French starts on a Sunday, unlike the other Slams which start on a Monday.