Let’s take a quick look at the draw.

Rafael Nadal starts off with big serving John Isner.  Rafa should get through this round but Isner has weapons few other players do, which is a big serve.   His speed (or lack thereof) will be an issue.  I think Rafa gets through Isner just fine.  It’s tough, but it would be a huge upset for a player like Nadal to lose to Isner.  A bad draw for Isner.

Nadal could meet Davydenko in the third round.  If this was 2009 instead of 2011, this might scare Nadal, but Davydenko is not the same player he was in early 2010.  He got injured and when he came back around Wimbledon, he lost and lost and lost.  He made it to the finals of Doha in 2011, but he continues to lose early.  Davydenko might not even reach the third round.  He needs a miracle recovery at the French.  If he regain his confidence then maybe he’ll bother Nadal, but I doubt he can do this.  Still, like Isner, a potentially dangerous opponent who has seen better days.

Sam Querrey has a tough opener against unseeded Kohlschrieber.  Ljubicic played well recently but faces Somdev Devvarman who didn’t have to qualify to get in the main draw.  Verdasco is the toughest player in that section and is the seeded player most likely to meet Rafa in the fourth round.  Whether that happens depends on Verdasco who has yet to play as well as a year ago.

Soderling is in the bottom half of the top quarter and is the top seed expected to meet Rafa in the quarterfinals.  The other seeds are Mardy Fish, Marcos Baghdatis, and Gilles Simon.  Fish has had some success on clay, but Soderling seems like the guy to get out of this section of the draw.  Soderling hasn’t played that well leading up to the French, but he did play a team event for Sweden.  Unfortunately, the number 2 for Sweden is about like the number 2 for the UK, in triple digits, and not much competition for a top 100 player.

Murray is in the second quarter and has two rounds of qualifiers.  He should get to third round where he might meet Milos Raonic.  Veteran Arnaud Clement is in the section with Raonic.  He’s savvy, but not getting any younger.

In the fourth round, Murray could meet Dolgopolov (who lose in the semis of Nice to Hanescu today).  Dolgopolov gave Murray some trouble at the Australian Open.  Victor Troicki is in the section that Dolgopolov is and is ranked higher.  Murray might have trouble there.  If he plays good tennis, and that can be iffy at places like Roland Garros, he should get past either player.

Melzer, Almagro, Mayer, and Anderson are the seeds that are vying to meet Murray in the quarterfinals.  They are all playing pretty well.  Almagro may be the strongest of this group based on recent form.  Mayer has played well.  Melzer made his breakthrough last year at Roland Garros.  Whoever gets out of this round is likely to give Murray his toughest challenge should he reach the quarterfinals.

Federer opens with the player that nearly knocked him out of Madrid in the second round.  He’ll need to figure out how to handle Lopez.  Should he get past Lopez, he should breeze through the second round with two virtual unknowns.  Federer should get past the third round where Janko Tipsarevic is the high seed scheduled to meet him.

Wawrinka and Tsonga are the top seeds scheduled to meet Federer in the fourth round.   Federer is comfortable against both players.

Monfils, Llodra, Stakhovsky, and Ferrer are the seeds scheduled to meet Fed in the quarterfinals.  He’s had success against all of the.  Ferrer would normally be the top player in this group (and he is by seed), but he had a recent injury and seems to not be on top of his game.  Monfils beat Federer indoors last year, but clay might work out better for Federer than Monfils.  Again, Federer should get past the quarters.  His toughest match may be his opening match, and then maybe the fourth round might be tough, but he looks good to the semifinals.

Djokovic opens up with de Bakker.  de Bakker was a better player this year.  He seems to have been a non-factor at the clay events this year.  Djokovic may be pushed, but should win comfortably.  If he had played this match a year ago, de Bakker might be more threatening, but this year, not as much.

Hanescu is reaching the finals of Nice so he’ll be the hot player facing Djokovic.  However, Hanescu was also better a year ago or so.  Hanescu is a little slow so Djokovic is likely to take advantage of this.

del Potro opens up against Karlovic.  Karlovic has played minimally recently.  He has a huge serve and del Potro is coming off injury, but one imagines del Potro will come through.  The erratic Gulbis may not make it past the first round.  Indeed, losing in the first round is a habit Gulbis seems to have.  He, too, played much better a year ago than today.  del Potro is the favorite to meet Djokovic.  I doubt del Potro gives Djokovic much of a challenge.  Djokovic leads the head-to-head 3-0 and this was when del Potro was playing well.

Gasquet and Belluci are likely fourth round opponents for Djokovic.  Both had great tournaments.  Belluci reached the semis of Madrid.  Gasquet reached the semis of Rome.  They are the hot players in this section.  However, if Djokovic plays well, he gets past these two, but this is the toughest round of any player given how well Gasquet and Bellucci have played.  Djokovic can at least be relieved that only one of the two can meet him, but it will be the match to watch.

Youzhny, Cilic, Garcia-Lopez, and Berdych are the top seeds expected to meet Rafa in the quarterfinals.  None of these players are in spectacular form.  All of them played better last year than this year.  Youzhny had a decent clay season last year.  Cilic was playing good tennis at last year’s Aussie Open, but has yet to reach those heights.  Garcia-Lopez beat Nadal in Bangkok but probably can’t reach the quarters to play.  Berdych played better a year ago, and is the likely player to meet Rafa again.

There’s always some upset, but as usual, it’s hard to see.  Gasquet may be the wildcard, but perhaps some player will have a breakout party at Roland Garros.  Last year, it was Jurgen Melzer.  This year, it may be straight seeds.  We’ll see.