I was at the Essential Tennis Clinic, Day 2, in Baltimore (it’s really closer to Towson, but good enough), so most of what I’m going to cover is just reaction from hearing the scores.  The only matches (or parts of) was the Sharapova-Henin third set.

Since there weren’t that many matches, let’s go over each one then talk about the matches on Monday.  Today’s weather was allegedly poor.  It was cool and wet.

Roger Federer v Stanislas Wawrinka Roger won this in straight sets.  Roger still has a gaudy record against most players, including Stan Wawrinka.  There are only a handful of players that Roger has lost to who have played well against him rather than Federer playing poorly.  Wawrinka had a win over Roger Federer and that was in 2009 Monte Carlo when Roger had just returned from his wedding and decided to go to Monte Carlo last minute and was granted a wildcard.  Except for that, Roger has never dropped a set against Wawrinka and beat him recently in Madrid rather easily.  So, this result was hardly a surprise.

Robin Soderling vs. Marin Cilic The two play a similar style, but Soderling pounds the ball more than Cilic.  Soderling credited his serve with making what appeared to be a tough match into a relatively easy 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 match.  Most people expected a tougher win, probably in four sets.  In any case, Soderling does what he normally does, which is get deep into a Slam and face Federer.  Soderling, who once used to consider clay his weakest surface, seems to have built an affinity for the surface.  Certainly, he has fond memories of playing in Paris, and has done so again.

Mikhail Youzhny vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga It’s too bad that the top 2 French players, Tsonga and Monfils, are so injury proned.  I had predicted Youzhny to beat Tsonga, based on his recent play, but I had expected them to play a match.

Andy Murray vs. Tomas Berdych This result was mildly surprising.  Berdych is, of course, a hard hitter, but he can be inconsistent.  People have been looking for him to make a move to the top 10 ever since he pushed Federer to 5 sets at the Aussie Open last year.  Somehow, he plays inconsistently, and loses to weaker players, but has the potential to beat top ranked players.  Perhaps next to Cilic, Berdych is one of the better movers for a big guy.

One question for Murray is something that must have occurred to Pete Sampras: how much effort should Murray make to win the French?  Federer and Nadal aside, it’s been historically very difficult for someone to win both the French and Wimbledon.  It takes a lot of physical effort to win the French, and this effort often leaves players too weary to make a serious attempt at Wimbledon.

On the one hand, any Slam title would look good for Murray who has yet to win.  On the other, his chances of winning the French are much slimmer where there are many good players that would give him a serious challenge including Federer, Nadal, Soderling, and a whole raftful of other players.  Murray has, at the very least, played well at Wimbledon.  Last year, he played his best Slam at Wimbledon, making it to the semifinals.  It’s not clear why Murray plays better at Wimbledon when the Australian Open or the US Open seem better suited to his game.  More than likely, though, Murray’s loss is as it is.  He isn’t fully comfortable on clay, despite making some strides to play better on it.

Tomorrow, Robby Ginepri plays Novak Djokovic, and the magic carpet ride most likely ends here.  Djokovic seems to be back to playing good clay court tennis and he’s just too good for Ginepri and would probably be too good on nearly all surfaces.  Djokovic will want to win this quickly.  His section of the draw opened up pretty much and only a mental lapse (which alas happens a bit too much with Djokovic) will prevent him from meeting Nadal in the semifinals.  If he gets past Ginepri, Djokovic will take on the winner of veteran Jurgen Melzer and Teimuraz Gabashvili.  He would again be strongly favored against either player.

The match between Jurgen Melzer and Teimuraz Gabashvili seems like one of those “who cares who wins” matches.  Neither were expected to get this far.   The two have never played before.  I suppose, in such a situation, I would pick the veteran, Melzer.  It’s not that Gabashvili is that young either.  Melzer has had indifferent results in the Slam.  Usually he’s out by the third round.  He had one of his best showings at a Masters 1000 event reaching the quarterfinals in Madrid and is probably still riding a high from that good result.

Rafa takes on Thomaz Bellucci of Brazil.  They’ve only played once, two years ago at Roland Garros, when Rafa steamrolled his way to the French title.  Bellucci is a solid clay court player.  No one expects him to bother Rafa, and he’ll probably fall in straight sets.

The most intriguing match is between the Spaniards Fernando Verdasco and Nicolas Almagro.  These two have met three times and Verdasco has yet to drop a set.  Their matches have an interesting pattern.  They play one set where Verdasco gets like 2 breaks, and the other sets are tiebreaks.  Of the two, it’s been Almagro who has taken a set off Nadal.  Verdasco has managed to avoid Nadal except in Monte Carlo where he won only a single game.  If Verdasco wins, he can take solace in the fact that Robin Soderling beat Nadal despite Soderling being crushed by Nadal only a few weeks earlier.  I expect a Nadal-Verdasco quarterfinals and I think Verdasco might be able to take a set off Nadal.  Nadal was just zoning in Monte Carlo, and has not been nearly as sharp in Rome and Madrid and the French (I say this despite the fact that Nadal has not dropped a set–and, interestingly enough, Roger hasn’t dropped a set either).

Interesting to note.  Roger has never reached the finals of the French without dropping at least one set.  Clearly, a player like Soderling could take a set from Roger, and even someone like Berdych has given Roger trouble, though the players that could have given him trouble (outside of Soderling) like Gulbis, Lopez, Monfils lost before they reached Fed (not that they would have given him too much trouble).

Of Roger and Rafa, Roger’s toughest challenge appears to be Soderling, a guy he’s never officially lost to (he lost in an exhibition).  Berdych would probably be the tougher of the two semifinalists.  Federer is 10-0 against Youzhny and 8-2 against Berdych including their first meeting during the Olympics.

On the other hand, Djokovic has 7 wins over Nadal, although every win was on hard courts.  The fact of the matter is Djokovic knows he can beat Nadal and I would take that over the chances over Soderling/Youzhny/Berdych beating Roger.  Admittedly, Djokovic has to reach Nadal, but his chances are very good to get there.  The only one that will stop Novak is himself.  Right now, his serve is giving him some issues, and he’s dropped a set twice so far.  He’ll hope to get that corrected before meeting Rafa.

Djokovic is seriously flying under the radar.  If he gets past Ginepri, he’ll start to get in the discussion as he moves to the quarterfinals.  Of course, if Djokovic loses before Nadal, there will be serious questions about his mental (or physical) fitness.