With two days of play complete, let’s look at how the top seeds are faring.
Roger Federer
Roger Federer had a bit of a tight first set, but then relaxed, and had a very easy first round match. He’s playing like he did in Madrid, and that was just too much for Luczak. I think a better test of how Federer is playing will be his second round match against Alejandro Falla. Last year, Federer played Acasuso and was in danger of playing a fifth set. He needed to come back from breaks in a set to finally win it in four. Players expected to trouble Federer have already lost (Tipsarevic, who probably wouldn’t have troubled Federer, and Lopez). This means Federer isn’t likely to face a tough challenge until the fourth round where he might play Wawrinka or Monfils. So far, he looks good.
Novak Djokovic
This match was kind of a typical Djokovic match from 2010. Djokovic often looks like he’s in cruise control and then he has a hiccup, finds himself losing a set, before he gets back in control. It happened to Djokovic again after winning the first set easily, and looking like he’d win the second easily. Djokovic needs to smooth these valleys out, but otherwise, he’s playing good enough. Given his woes in Belgrade, he seems to have overcome what ailed him. The question is how he’ll fare against better competition.
It’s hard to say what will happen in the next round. Kei Nishikori got injured around Indian Wells in 2009 and didn’t play the rest of the year. He played once in February, but then played again in April. Nishikori won two Challenger clay events early in May in the US, winning at Savannah and at Sarasota. This has been his first big tournament. He was admitted to the field under “protected ranking” since his actual rank of 246, would have prevented him from getting into the main draw.
The two have never met. If Nishikori gives Djokovic a tough time, does that mean it’s a talented player that is trying to get his game on track? Or does it mean that Djokovic is off his game? It’s already impressive that Nishikori beat Giraldo who had a decent clay season given his rank.
My feeling is Djokovic is doing OK, but not his best. Big question marks about him.
Andy Murray
Although everyone will point to how poorly Andy played between the Australian Open through Monte Carlo, Murray seems to be getting his game back in order. Gasquet was going to be a tough first round match given his recent success in tournaments leading up to Paris. Gasquet ran into similar problems when he lost to Youzhny in the Australian Open where it seemed both players were cramping, and it was a matter of who lost sooner. Much like that situation, Gasquet had done well in a tournament prior to the Aussie Open.
Clay isn’t Murray’s best surface. He doesn’t play as aggressive as most clay courters. He’s also not like David Ferrer who is basically Nadal-lite, the kind of player that pressures you on his strokes, without necessarily going for winners. Ferrer gets a lot of balls back, even hard-struck balls. This is why he infuriated Verdasco in their last meeting. He made Verdasco hit more balls to win the point. Murray doesn’t play like this. He doesn’t try to pressure a weakness waiting for a weak shot so he can pounce on it. He’ll get into more neutral rallies or even rallies where the other guy takes advantage.
Murray’s next round match could be interesting. He beat Chela pretty handily in Madrid. He should do so again. If he doesn’t, this doesn’t bode that well for Murray’s chances. As it is, he’s got tough players to beat from the 3rd round on. Murray is playing better than he did earlier this year, but it’s tough to say how well he’s playing on clay. Does he even want to go that far on clay given how much Wimbledon generally means to Murray (or to the UK)? Everyone says that the French-Wimbledon double is the hardest to accomplish because of how taxing the French is. In the one year that Sampras got to the semifinals of the French, he lost early at Wimbledon. From that point on, Sampras always lost early at the French, presumably to maximize his chances at Wimbledon. Alas, Murray’s no Sampras, and a successful Wimbledon is no gimme.
Chela must be tired of seeing Andy Murray. Guess who Andy Murray beat in the first round of the French in 2009? Chela.
Of the top 4 seeds, Murray would have been the least likely to win the French, even had it not been for his woes post-Aussie Open. Murray’s draw is also challenging given his weaknesses on clay. The only good news is that he seems to be playing pretty good, though not exceptional. His issues are more adjusting to playing on the clay (and getting his first serve in) as opposed to Djokovic who has mental issues to work out.
Robin Soderling
Player love coming back to tournaments they do well at. You will often find a player that has one a single tournament in a year come back and do well the following year. Witness Wayne Odesnik, who was a finalist at Houston, coming back and reaching the semifinals, despite a stronger field than usual. Soderling has such a big game that he should get through early rounds without too much trouble. Soderling faces an interesting challenge in Taylor Dent, but Dent isn’t exactly a clay courter. He’ll try to play aggressive and see if that works.
Thus far, Soderling is playing well, but we’ll see how he does as the tournament proceeds.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Tsonga seems to struggle against big serves. He doesn’t seem to read their serves well. He was guessing when it came to playing Karlovic last year at Wimbledon. Brands had a big serve and big forehand and took Tsonga to five sets. Tsonga was a bit under the weather and wanted his match delayed. Seems like the French don’t want to show favoritism to their own players since Gasquet also asked for a delay and was denied.
Tsonga has had health issues in the past which means this is only Tsonga’s third French Open ever. Last year, he reached the fourth round, but he didn’t play the previous three years. Up next for Tsonga is Ouanna. Ouanna is way down on the French top players. One would imagine Tsonga will try to right the ship and beat Ouanna handily. They’ve played once before on hard courts which Tsonga won narrowly. So perhaps Ouanna may cause potential issues.
Tsonga playing decently, but has to worry about keeping focused.
Marin Cilic
Cilic hasn’t had a great year after his semifinal performance at the Australian Open. Many thought he’d step up and take the mantle from Juan Martin del Potro as the best bug guy playing. That might still happen, but only because del Potro is injured, not because Cilic is playing well. Like Murray, Cilic plays a flatter style and this makes clay more challenging for him. His best result is a fourth round result from last year where he lost to Andy Murray.
Cilic is kind of an unknown. We’ll see how he’s doing when he plays Spaniard Gimeno-Traver in the 2nd round.
Conclusion
Well, it’s hard to draw any conclusion after the first round. Most players try to get the first 2 rounds out of the way, whether it’s a shaky result or not.
