Novak Djokovic had a great match last night, playing steady tennis, hitting great shots with his tennis racquet when he had to, and took out Rafael Nadal.  It’s tough to say how Nadal is doing now, but it’s safe to say he isn’t fully 100%.  Djokovic had beaten Roger the last two times they played, once on clay in Madrid, and once on hard courts, back in Indian Wells.

At the time Federer had lost to Djokovic in Miami, people were openly questioning whether Federer was on a slide.  He had already spent some time off trying to recover from where his game was, much like Nadal is trying to come back, although his return is due to injury.

When Miami concluded, Federer made an odd statement.  He said he was happy to leave the hard courts behind, and was ready to play on clay.  It was odd because Federer’s weakest surface is clearly clay.  And yet, with a bit of luck and hard work, he came through the clay court season with a win at Madrid and at Paris.

With the US Open looming, Federer found himself in a situation much like the semifinal against Murray, facing a rival that appeared to have turned the tide against Federer.  Federer has long believed that the numerous losses to rivals Murray and Djokovic were something of a fluke.  He felt, were he playing his best tennis, he could still beat both his up-and-coming rival.  In the semifinal, Federer overpowered a shell-shocked Murray, before Murray held tough in the second to keep it interesting.  Federer closed that match out in straight sets.

With his win over Nadal, Djokovic looked like he would give Federer a tough time, but if anything, Federer looked even more dominant against Djokovic.  Djokovic looked like a shell of himself from yesterday’s match.  Shots that were falling in were starting to fall out.  It was hard to say whether his poor play was due to Federer or just due to a bad day.  Soderling admitted after his loss to Roger at the French Open that he plays poorly against Federer, but he realized that it was Roger that made him play poorly.

As much as Roger and Rafa are seen as the class of the field, their opponents seem to judge them differently.  Rafa, for all his topspin and power, generally plays more conservative.  It’s almost like a 3.5 player playing a 4.5 where the 4.5 plays within himself and the 3.5 struggles to keep it even close, until the 4.5 gets the shot he wants and puts it away.  Rafa takes less risk, but when he’s in trouble himself, he can hit fantastic shots.  Roger, on the other hand, has always preferred a higher risk approach, hitting to one line, then hitting to the other line.  Roger will take a return up the middle and power an inside out shot out of reach, trying to end the point quickly.

Roger quickly took a 5-0 lead before Novak finally had one game.  Djokovic looked a bit slow, and certainly a bit inconsistent.  Roger closed out the set at 6-1.  In the second set, Djokovic, much like Murray, fought harder and even had an early break, but Roger seemed unconcerned.  He was able to break back, then break a second time at 5-all, and have an easy hold to take a straight set win over his other rival, reproducing his US Open effort, except in reverse (in the US Open, he beat Novak in the semis, and Murray in the finals).

Roger looks like he’s the expected favorite to win the US Open, but recall that del Potro didn’t play Cincinnati (though he has never lost to del Potro) and that Andy Roddick lost early (though he dominates Roddick).  There’s also Rafael Nadal.  Can he do enough training and recovery to make a deep run at the US Open?  Because Andy Murray was able to take advantage of Nadal’s absence, he was able to move to 2nd seed, which means there’s a chance that Roger and Rafa could be in the same half of the US Open.  This would leave Djokovic in the same half as Murray.

There’s one tournament left before the US Open, which is New Haven.  Most of the top players will take that week off to do their final preparations.  The one guy that is expected to play New Haven is Sam Querrey.  He’s played the entire US Open Series.  Because he has done so well at the series, he may be able to win the US Open Series with the increased points given to smaller events in the series.  The top 3 point getters at the US Open Series get bonus money depending on how far they get at the US Open.

Meanwhile, Federer has to feel great beating two of his top rivals.  Last year, at this time, Roger was struggling with his game.  Despite some relatively poor first serve percentage serving, Federer was able to win nearly all points on first serves, which is exactly the kind of confidence Roger wants heading into the US Open.