The experts used to talk about a big 3, and then a big 4, then maybe a big 5.  Those would be Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Juan Martin del Potro.

But before there was a big 5, the big 3 used to be Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Nikolay Davydenko.  Davydenko’s never been quite taken as a top 3 because he’s never reached the final of a Slam.  Whatever can be said about Andy Murray, he has reached one Slam final.

When Djokovic and Murray moved their way up to the top, it was Davydenko that slipped out of his coveted number 3 slot, and due to an injury, he even fell out of the top 10.

Davydenko played a very solid indoor/hard court season after the US Open.  It all culminated in the ATP World Tour Finals where Davydenko did something that few, if any, have ever accomplished.  He beat Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Juan Martin del Potro in the same tournament.  To be fair, Nadal was not exactly at his best.  He won no matches in the round robin, falling to Novak Djokovic and Robin Soderling.  However, Davydenko had also beaten Nadal in Shanghai where Nadal was playing somewhat better.

When Davydenko reached the semifinals, he had the same daunting tasks ahead of him.  Roger Federer in the semifinals, who he beat, 6-4, 6-4.  Then, Rafael Nadal in the finals.

One reason Nadal lost to Davydenko was his tendency to retreat far behind the baseline when he gets a bit nervous.  The extra time seems to calm him, but it means his shots can lack the kind of bite.  With Davydenko hugging the baseline and often taking shots inside, Nadal struggled to retrieve shots.  Davydenko’s angles and power shots kept Nadal flustered.

When Nadal started having success at Wimbledon, one change in tactic he made was to crowd the baseline.  This meant more errors, but it also allowed him to be more aggressive.  Nadal recently changed his string from a poly to a co-poly.  This new string allows Nadal to get a bit more power and a bit more spin.

For seven games, Nadal’s power and consistency, two things missing at the end of last year, seemed to come back in spades.  Davydenko struggled to chase down balls, and before you knew it, Davydenko lost the first set, 6-0, and Nadal had held to open the second 1-0.

At this point, many in Davydenko’s situation might have folded.  Nadal is just too good.  What weapons does Davydenko have to beat Nadal?  But surely, the two wins he had over Nadal gave him some confidence.  Davydenko must have told himself that he needed to win just 1 game.  Get a foothold and see what happens.

Davydenko began hitting shots more up the middle, trying to stretch out the rallies, and get a feel for his shots.  After a lengthy game, Davydenko held for his first game.  After that, Nadal’s level dropped some and Davydenko was able to hang in the rallies.  Davydenko eventually broke and it looked like he might take the second set, except when it came to serve it out, Nadal broke back.

Was Davydenko done for?  He held serve to get into a tiebreak, and then it became a back and forth affair.  Davydenko taking the lead, then Nadal.  The announcers felt that Nadal had to win it in the tiebreak or Davydenko would take it in 3.  Davydenko fought off 2 match points with some aggressive play both off the ground and coming to net.  He finally took the tiebreak 10 points to 8.

In the third set, however, Davydenko looked like he would fade again.  Nadal took a break and it looked like he might take a second.  Davydenko managed to hold on to his own serve, and then surprise, Davydenko broke Nadal to even the match.  Finally, he broke Nadal a second time, rather surprisingly, and a victory that seemed far from certain was now his.  Davydenko took his 20th career title, only one of 38 players in the Open era to have won that many titles.

This means Nadal still has not won a title since Rome, which means it’s been over 6 months since he’s won a title, despite having reached several finals since then.

Can Davydenko make a good showing at the Australian Open?  He’s certainly had his best preparation leading to the Aussie Open.  However, he’s also never done particularly well at a Slam.  The best of 5 matches may not play to Davydenko’s strengths.  Davydenko claimed he was tired even before the final, but managed to win one anyway.

And interestingly, neither Djokovic nor del Potro have played since London.  Will they head into the Australian Open without any match practice?  Neither are scheduled to play Auckland or Sydney, both of which are played next week.  Djokovic, like Federer, trained in Dubai and has come to Melbourne to practice.  He’s scheduled to play an exhibition prior to the Australian Open.  His main concern is dealing with the heat.  Last year, he retired against Andy Roddick, unable to deal with the heat.

Like Djokovic, Juan Martin del Potro is also expected to play at the AAMI Classic at Kooyong.  This appears to be an 8-man exhibition, though they are currently missing an 8th player, perhaps to be decided once this week’s tournaments are concluded.

In other news, Roddick beat Berdych in 3 sets to reach the final against Radek Stepanek in Brisbane.  Marin Cilic will face Stanislas Wawrinka in the finals at Chennai, India.  Cilic is the defending champion when he beat Somdev Devvarman in last year’s final.