With less than a week before the finals, the tournament heads into the second week.  This is a good time to look at the contenders and see how the field is doing.  Let’s go from top to bottom.  Roger Federer had a tough opening round, nearly pushed to five sets against Igor Andreev.  Although Andreev had not played particularly well the last few months, he gave Roger all he could handle.  Roger said that he felt he played well against Andreev, even if the viewing public disagreed.

Roger had a pretty easy match in the second round, defeating Victor Hanescu.  Hanescu had few answers for Federer.  It was a much smoother game for Federer.  The third round didn’t look nearly as smooth as he had a somewhat tougher time against Albert Montanes, despite never being in any real trouble.  Federer was back to being efficient in his dispatch of Hewitt.  It seems Federer’s game is coming together, as it does in every Slam.  He faces Nikolay Davydenko next.

Davydenko came into the tournament as arguably the hottest player.  He won Doha with victories over Federer and Nadal.  He won last year’s ATP World Tour Finals with wins over Federer, Nadal, del Potro, and Soderling.  Indeed, he’s beaten Nadal the last three times they’ve met.  Davydenko might have preferred to be on Nadal’s half.

Davydenko beat Kindlmann in the first round and Marchenko in the second round with fair ease.  Davydenko didn’t look super sharp.  He’d miss balls here and there.  But his overall level is so high that his opponents struggled with his play.  Davydenko’s third round match looked to be a tough one against up-and-comer, Juan Monaco.  Yet, Monaco was befuddled for a set, unable to deal with Davydenko’s shotmaking and making plenty of errors.  Monaco was able to pick up the level of his play some, but Davydenko was still too much.

Davydenko then played Verdasco.  Given Davydenko’s first three rounds, it seemed he would win in four sets and not struggle too much with Verdasco.  For two sets, things went according to plan.  Davydenko was playing well and Verdasco had few answers.  However, Verdasco is a dangerous player.  With a big serve and a big lefty forehand, he can win points quickly.  The downside?  Verdasco lacks any of the steadiness of a player like Nadal or even Roddick.

Had Davydenko been hitting as cleanly as he normally does, he probably would have won in straight sets.  However, Verdasco’s shotmaking seemed to disrupt Davydenko’s timing, especially short shots up the middle.  Normally when Davydenko pulls the trigger, his aim is impeccable.  He leaves himself with plenty of margin for error.  However, for two sets, he found his shots going awry and Verdasco’s shots hit their target just often enough to win games.  Indeed, it was quite impressive that Verdasco hit as many unforced errors and double faults as he did and still had a good chance to win.  Verdasco just spaces his errors well enough that either Davydenko would himself hit an errant shot or Verdasco would hit a great shot.

In the end, it was Davydenko’s mental toughness and Verdasco’s lack of mental toughness that pulled him through.  In the fifth set, Davydenko held onto two games that he was in danger of losing while Verdasco was unable to hold a 40-15 lead.

That poses an interesting question.  What shape is Davydenko in?  He just finished a five setter which he looked a bit fatigued at the end.  Meanwhile Federer had an easy straight sets win.  Federer pointed out that Davydenko was serving extremely well in Doha.  Indeed, his serve percentage was close to 80%.  Davydenko’s first serve percentage can vary a bit.  He served as low as 60% and as high as 75% in his first four matches.  The better Davydenko serves (and his serves have improved in effectiveness), the better his chances of winning are.  He doesn’t look nearly as sharp as he did when he played in Doha, so the question is whether Federer has the edge.

This is a tough call.  Federer used to own Davydenko.  Davydenko has just played a tough match, but he’s shown he’s mentally tougher than he used to be.  He’ll need to clean up his groundstrokes and recover from a long match.  Given Federer’s history of playing in so many Slams and given Davydenko’s tough match against Verdasco, I give the edge to Federer.  I expect it to be a tough match.  Federer needs to serve well and not play too poorly as he sometimes does.

Andy Murray has played the best tennis in terms of consistency and domination of the remaining players.  Murray is moving better than ever.  He demonstrated his retrieving skills in the Hopman Cup as well as his first few rounds.  Murray’s best match was against John Isner.  In a way, Isner is a perfect kind of player for Murray to play.  He has a big serve and forehand, but doesn’t move that well.  Murray returns well and moves well.  Murray has a weird skill set that allows him to dominate against lesser players.  He does this better than most any other player, including Federer, because he returns so well.

The downside?  Murray relies on his retrieving to set traps for his opponent.  He almost wants his opponents to run him around and hope they have him on the ropes, while he makes an amazing pass 15 feet behind the baseline.  Where Murray struggles is dominating the rallies.  He isn’t nearly as consistent off the ground as his rivals, nor is he as dynamic.  For example, Roddick and Nadal are steadier than Murray.  Federer and del Potro are not as steady, but play much more aggressively.  Murray’s game is just way different from these players, using speed, change of pace, and excellent returning to his advantage.

Normally, you’d favor a player like Nadal over Murray based on head-to-head matchups.  Nadal is right on the precipice of winning titles, reaching the finals of  Madrid, Shanghai, and Doha and the semifinals of Cincinnati, the US Open, Beijing, and Paris.  The guy is still playing top 5 tennis, and yet he’s now lost to players like Djokovic, Davydenko, Cilic, Federer, and del Potro.  The one player he hasn’t played is Andy Murray.  They last played on clay back in Monte Carlo and clearly Murray’s best surface is not clay.

Arguably, Murray has played better in his first four matches than Nadal has in his, except Nadal hasn’t played a really tough groundstroking player, but then arguably, neither has Murray.  I call this a toss-up.  I think Murray has the edge, but it’s difficult to say because Murray’s game is not a typical game, and it’s hard to say how this will affect Nadal.  Nadal isn’t 100%, and so that provides some edge to Murray.  Nadal may try to take the game to Murray knowing Murray generally has trouble against hard hitters, but it will be going against his nature to be aggressive.  Nadal plays just aggressive enough and is patient to find the one shot that will stun his opponent then works him over to win a point.  Nadal typically prefers outright winners (unless he’s pressured) in favor of a stunning blow.  In a way, he is sometimes like Murray, waiting for an opponent to attack, but his overall power and spin is much more impressive than Murray.

Another hard match to call is Andy Roddick and Marin Cilic.  Andy Roddick has been workmanlike in his victories, playing solid, steady tennis.  He was pushed to five sets by Gonzalez, but much like Verdasco, Gonzalez is unpredictable, likely to get upset and make silly errors.

Marin Cilic is a bit of a wildcard.  He’s had one of the tougher roads to this point.  He played two five setters, once against Aussie, Bernard Tomic, and once against Juan Martin del Potro.  He played a four setter against Stan Wawrinka.  That’s more tennis than Roddick has played.  Cilic apparently had his chances to beat del Potro quicker than he did, but del Potro kept fighting.  Cilic’s game is not as big as del Potro, but he’s pretty steady too.  Add to that, he’s had one victory over Roddick.

Expect another tough match for both players.  Cilic seems more talented, but perhaps less mentally focused, plus he’s logged a lot of miles.  Roddick has the experience, but Cilic will be a tougher test than Gonzalez.  Slight edge to Roddick, but this could go either way.  At least Roddick will go into this knowing what Cilic is capable of and not get surprised like he did with del Potro when they first met in Los Angeles in 2008.

Finally, Djokovic will play Tsonga.  Djokovic is playing pretty clean ball right now.  If you had to make me pick the player who is hitting the sharpest, I’d probably say Djokovic, minus the hiccup he had against Marco Chiudinelli.   The problem?  He’s also had the easiest draw, having yet to play a seeded player.  No one has really pushed him, and so he’s playing pretty relaxed tennis.  That may actually be a good thing for Djokovic.  Djokovic skipped all the warm-up tournaments and had a bad exhibition.  He claimed that he was just playing too much and it was leaving him a bit shell-shocked.

Djokovic’s problem is whether he’s mentally focused.  In his easy matches, he had opportunities to win even easier.  And he plays an opponent with a winning record over him.  Tsonga leads their head-to-head 4-2.  Tsonga knows how to beat Djokovic.   But Tsonga just came off a five setter against Almagro, and he had a four setter against Haas in the previous round.  Tsonga will be Djokovic’s toughest opponent, by far, and his first seed.  Although Djokovic has had easy opposition so far and Tsonga clearly has the game to bother Djokovic, I feel Djokovic will come through.  He’s been trying to get his game back to where it was in 2008, and he seems way too talented a guy not to get there again.  This isn’t a confident pick, just a lean.

So my picks are Murray-Roddick in one semi, and Federer-Djokovic in the other.