What a difference a few weeks make. Going into the French Open, there were many guesses who would win. Due to Nadal’s dominance at Roland Garros, and his hot streak entering Paris (winning 3 of 4 clay events), it was hard to pick against Nadal.

The guy who had been giving Nadal the toughest time had seen his ranking slip from 3 to 4. In Madrid, Djokovic played outstandingly well and still lost.

Finally, Federer played well enough to get to the final and for once, beat his longtime nemesis, Rafael Nadal. People were thinking that maybe, this year, he could find a way to beat Rafael in the finals.

Everyone knew, as number 1 and 2 seeds, that Federer and Nadal couldn’t meet each other until the finals. That meant, it would come down to which side of the draw Djokovic would fall on. Djokovic had beaten Federer in their last 2 meetings, one on clay, one on hard courts. He had been playing so well against Nadal that some felt he would give Federer trouble too.

Except things didn’t go according to script. Djokovic lost in the 3rd round to Philipp Kohlscreiber of Germany, and Nadal lost in the following round to Robin Soderling.

Due to this early loss and to a loss in the finals at Halle to Tommy Haas, people began ignoring Novak Djokovic. Djokovic, for his part, has been happy to be ignored. But realize this was the number 3 player in the world, and still the number 4 player. When he is playing well, he is still tough to beat.

Indeed, almost no one is discussing a possibility of Djokovic winning the whole thing. Djokovic has played Federer twice this year and won twice. Admittedly, the last time they played in a Slam, namely, last year’s US Open, Federer looked very solid against Djokovic. Although Federer still looked shaky playing Djokovic, which may have been Federer, or the booing Djokovic received for saying how he didn’t care for Andy Roddick’s comments that he was faking an injury.

In other circumstances, people may have been sympathetic to a player who felt his integrity was being questioned, but whether it was because everyone felt Roddick was just joking, or that Novak was being critical of an American, the boos rained down, and it seemed to unsettle Djokovic for many months afterwards. Indeed, he’s cut back on his impersonations, only trotting it out in Italy after being begged to do one for the crowd.

Now Djokovic has to actually reach Federer (and for that matter, Federer’s road to the semis isn’t so easy either). However, he has a favorable record against the remaining folks in his section which include Sela, Haas, and Andreev. Haas has given him the most trouble historically, and Djokovic has owned Andreev. His section should be pretty reasonable.

Federer, meanwhile, has to face the hard hitting Swede, Robin Soderling. Admittedly, Soderling has never beaten Federer, and it’s hard to imagine that he’s figured anything new to try against Federer in a few weeks. However, his big game ought to be better suited to grass. The bad news? Federer’s game is also better suited to grass.

After that, Federer plays the winner of Verdasco and Karlovic. Karlovic actually has a winning record against Verdasco, and if he serves big, it can be hard to beat him. Even Federer has lost to the big serving Croat. Karlovic has just enough of a game that he can occasionally get a break here or there, and that can be enough for him to win.

Djokovic had a tough opening round, but both Federer and Murray have each dropped a set. And Djokovic played a tough Mardy Fish and beat him in straight sets.

Everyone is pointing to Murray-Federer, but there’s still one top notch player left that may have a lot to say about who wins this year’s Wimbledon.