Wimbledon is the only one major that gives a day of rest in the middle Sunday. Most majors find Sunday a great opportunity for the public to watch top-flight tennis, but then Wimbledon has always been about tradition, hasn’t it.
As Wimbledon takes this day off, let’s look at the draw and how things currently stand.
When Wimbledon started, the buzz was about Nadal. Nadal’s knee bothered him enough that he decided not to defend his title. Then, the talk focused on two other players: Federer and Murray. Federer, because he finally won the French Open, and was looking to his favorite surface and a chance to break Sampras’s Grand Slam record of 14 majors. Murray, because he’s been the Brit most likely to win Wimbledon, well, since Tim Henman. Murray doesn’t look like a typical grass court player, but the last few years have shown that the typical grass court player is now an aggressive baseliner.
Let’s work down the men’s quarterfinals.
Hewitt vs. Stepanek. Hewitt had hip surgery last year, and was only starting to feel good about everything prior to the French Open. His big win was over top ten, Juan Martin del Potro. Perhaps, like Djokovic looked up to Safin and lost to him last year, del Potro looked up to Hewitt and lost to him this year. Stepanek is a guy who hits somewhat classically. He has a flatter style than most, so it might not be so surprising that he has made it this far. Still, I’m leaning to Hewitt to get through.
Berdych vs. Roddick. Berdych has a powerful game. If you were to look at the head to head between Berdych and Davydenko, you’ll see that Davydenko has never lost to Berdych. But they’ve also never played on grass. Roddick played a tough lefty in Melzer, and is looking to get deep into Wimbledon. Roddick should be favored. Head-to-head is tied, and the matches have generally been close.
Wawrinka vs. Murray. Murray leads their head to head, 4-3, but two of Wawrinka’s victories have been on clay. The two practice a lot, but given Murray’s exemplary play, you have to favor Murray.
Ferrero vs. Simon. A bit of a surprise for both. Ferrero has just been playing better recently, even on grass. For him to come through over the hard hitting Gonzalez is a great victory. Simon has had a down year compared to his fabulous 2008, but has been doing pretty well at Wimbledon. I give a slight edge to Simon. The two have never met, and it kinda depends on whether Simon’s game is getting back on track or not.
Andreev vs. Haas. Andreev, a steady and quick baseliner, has benefitted from a friendly draw. Haas is coming off a five setter. But with the day rest, I’ll give the edge to Haas with better experience and a recent grass court title to his name. Andreev has a 1-0 head to head lead, but the match was played on clay.
Sela vs. Djokovic. A nice win for the Israeli. Has to be his best Wimbledon ever. But surely the end of the Wimbledon road. Djokovic is sneaking under the radar, but expect him to win. Djokovic hasn’t played Sela since 2006, but beat him then.
Verdasco vs. Karlovic. Verdasco has a big serve, but not as big as Karlovic. As much trouble as Karlovic has had, I’m thinking he’s due for a break. I give him the edge, in a few tiebreak sets. Karlovic leads the head to head 2-1.
Soderling vs. Federer. Soderling has done quite well at Wimbledon. Too bad his draw ended up against Federer. Gotta favor the Fed who has been playing better on grass than he was on clay. Soderling is dangerous, no doubt, but I don’t think Soderling has figured out how to beat Federer.
The matches will now get tougher. Federer, in particular, has a couple of tough matches upcoming, and will need to work hard to win Wimbledon. If he beats Soderling, he may have to face the big serving Karlovic, and then possibly Djokovic, and then possibly Murray. The top half is a bit easier.
If anything, the first week favors players with “bigger” games, with the possible exception of Hewitt who beat the “bigger” del Potro.
Perhaps because Nadal isn’t in the tournament, but this year’s tournament doesn’t quite have the same edge. Maybe the second week will have more sizzle.