At 32 years old, Nicolas Kiefer has been on the tour for 14 years. Watch enough tennis and pay enough attention to the players playing Slams and you’ll notice the players you don’t know are not 19 year old wunderkinds but 29 year old veterans, who have grinded on the tour for years.
On the surface, Kiefer’s ranking of 129 would suggest he doesn’t have a chance against Nadal. It doesn’t reveal that Kiefer was once ranked as high as number 4, but that was nearly a decade ago. The German has a record of 11-13 which means he loses in first rounds sometimes and makes it a few rounds deep sometimes.
Those worried about Nadal only had to watch this match to realize Nadal’s movement, at the very least, is quite good. Kiefer tried to take the game to Nadal, and was hampered by low service percentages. When his serve did go in, Kiefer would often attack the net, including serve-and-volley. Some say this is the right way to play Nadal. Serve big, take the game to Nadal. For a while, it looked like Kiefer might have a chance to pull the upset, but then, perhaps like most people who find themselves tied a set with Nadal, they realize Nadal wasn’t number 1 for nothing. They also realize that the skill they used to get that set is hard to sustain over a five set match, that when you go for a bigger game, you miss more, that Nadal, more than anyone else in the game, makes you hit more good shots in a row, forcing you to more errors.
When Nadal took time off, fans thought he was suffering from a serious injury. In a sense, he was, but this happens every year with Rafa. He starts to have problems running shots down. He looks like he’s worn out. Then, come January and the Australia Open, and Rafa looks fresh again. Clearly, Rafa’s people know how to get Rafa in shape to play. They go through it every year, and Rafa seems to recover enough to play. But this year, that breakdown occurred much earlier than usual.
Normally, Rafa gets to the US Open and plays pretty good, but not quite good enough to win. By the indoor season, Rafa becomes more beatable. He still plays tough, of course, but so many pros can claim a harder court as their favorite surface.
This year, of course, was different. Rafa had to shake off rust. Now he’s looking like he can move again, but because he hasn’t won a tournament since coming back, no one quite knows how well he is playing. He looked pretty good, though not outstanding in his wins at Montreal and Cincinnati, but in one tournament, he lost to del Potro, who bageled him in one set, and lost to Djokovic who blazed to a first set victory. Rafa looks great against players that are just outside the best, but he still dropped a set to Kiefer. This is less surprising on hard courts than say clay.
Looking at the match, one could see that Kiefer might have had a puncher’s chance. At points, he looked great, but to sustain it over four sets over a player as good as Rafa was just too much, and Rafa advanced in four tough sets.
Let’s look at the other contenders. del Potro won his match in straight sets, a comfortable win over veteran Jurgen Melzer. Andy Murray, however, played four sets. Chilean Paul Capdeville took the second set 6-3, but Murray regained control, and took the last two sets, 6-0, 6-2. A brief hiccup.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga played the best Finnish player ever in Jarko Nieminen. It was a comfortable straight set win.
There were a bunch of five setters today, but none involving the favorites. Two Americans lost in five setters. Jesse Levine pushed Marin Cilic to five sets with a 2 set to none lead, but Cilic came roaring back taking the last 3 sets, 6-0, 6-4, 6-0. Robby Ginepri also took his opponent, Nicolas Almagro, to five sets. This time, Almagro was up 2 sets to 1, with Ginepri taking the fourth, but losing in the fifth.
Not every American lost in a five setter. Taylor Dent, whose injuries took him off the tour for a significant period of time, won his match over Ivan Navarro, taking the fifth set in a tiebreak, 11 points to 9. At the end of the match, to a crowd that had been driven to a frenzy, Dent went around the court giving side 5’s to fans, with outreached hands. Navarro may not be the biggest opponent in the world. Indeed, this is just the kind of match that most people rarely pay attention to. It is a little sad that it’s nationalist support that finally bring appreciation to the little guy.
Few knew of Dent’s back problem that took him off the tour for two years from early 2006 to early 2008. When Dent looks back at his career, he’ll point to moments like these as his proudest moments, the equivalent of a tiny school in March Madness making another round. Dent’s ride, perhaps much like Witten’s, is likely to be over. He’ll face number 2 seed, Andy Murray, next. He says he’ll just fight hard. It’s worked for him so far.
Other five setters. Former number 1, Juan Carlos Ferrero, beat German Philipp Petzchner in five sets after being down two sets to love. Denis Istomin of Uzbekistan beat the oldest man left in the tour, 33 year old Nicolas Lapentti, in a fifth set tiebreak. Jose Acasuso did his part to help the Argentina vs. Spain rivalry, beating David Ferrer in five sets.
The French had a pretty good day on Friday. Tsonga won his match in straight sets, but more surprisingly, Gilles Simon did too. Simon has had a dismal year for a guy that made it to the top 10 last year. del Potro, by contrast, continued to win into 2009. To be fair, del Potro has a bigger game. He serves bigger and has a bigger forehand. Simon relies on quickness, the ability to hit lots of balls, and the occasional pace that allows him to hit winners up the line. Simon’s ascendancy came in the hardcourt season last year, and it seems the hardcourts are friendly to Simon again. Nice straight set win over Brazilian Bellucci.
Saturday play starts with two of the top four seeds opening up play. Roger Federer engages with long-time rival, Lleyton Hewitt. Federer has beaten Hewitt a great number of times lately, and yet, you expect nothing less than full effort from Hewitt. Novak Djokovic may be midnight to Jesse Witten’s Cinderella. On paper, Djokovic should win easily. Djokovic hasn’t had the best year, but he’s not had an awful year either. He continues to rack up match wins, but not too many titles, nor deep runs in the Slams. Regardless, Witten is going to be pretty happy if he can play Djokovic tough, say, take him to four sets. Witten’s goal is much like the Cinderella teams in March Madness–make the ride last as long as possible.
An intriguing match. John Isner will face Andy Roddick. Isner pushed Roddick to three sets at Washington DC, before Roddick pulled out a break late in the third. Roddick has lost to big guys this summer. Twice to del Potro and once to Sam Querrey. Roddick’s been playing more aggressive this day, but Isner has a big serve and big forehand. Isner still needs work on his movement, the kind of advances that Querrey made this year, and on his fitness, but a big serve always makes him dangerous.
Two other matches of intrigue. James Blake has ceded the second best American to Sam Querrey, but the guy can still hit a ball. Can he make an impression on Tommy Robredo? Robredo hasn’t had that great a year either. Blake can run on emotion and the US Open is the best place for him to make a run. It’s a winnable match, but who knows, given how both players are playing?
Perhaps the most intriguing match is Tommy Haas vs. Fernando Verdasco. After his epic Australian Open win, there were hopes that Verdasco would start making inroads into the top 5. However, he hasn’t quite done that. Verdasco didn’t have a great summer hard court season until the very end when he beat Sam Querrey in the finals of New Haven, a few days before the start of the US Open. Haas has been the man for all seasons, or at least, all surfaces. He pushed Federer to five sets at the French Open, and reached the semifinals of Wimbledon. Haas leads their head-to-head 2-0 and played as recently as 2008 when Haas wasn’t ranked nearly as high.
If the summer was a semester long course for Sam Querrey, then the US Open is the final exam. The winner of the US Open Series point total now faces his first real tough opponent, Robin Soderling. Soderling has played reasonably well after his surprising run to the French Open final. He lost to Roger Federer at Wimbledon (again), but still beat the players to reach there. The hard court season wasn’t great for Soderling. He got a little lucky, playing only 2 games in his second round match, before Marcel Granollers retired.
Head-to-head, Soderling has beaten Querrey twice including early in the year in Brisbane. This was before either player made a splash. Querrey probably has a shot to beat Soderling, though Soderling’s game seems much bigger than Querrey. Soderling has a big serve and a huge forehand, but those are Querrey’s strengths too, and Querrey has momentum and the crowd behind him, while Soderling could be said to be match-rusty.
The US Open begins to shift into high gear on Labor Day weekend.
