Yawn.
Roger made another Slam final. Sometimes he’s compared to baseball’s Cal Ripken who played 2,632 games in a row, but this accomplishment has more to do with health than with any accomplishment over this period of time. He’s compared to Tiger Woods, but even Tiger can’t win every major or even be in contention.
Roger has made 17 of 18 Grand Slam finals, the lone exception being the 2008 where Novak Djokovic beat a mono-struck Roger Federer. Federer impressed himself reaching the semifinals.
It’s a testament to Roger Federer’s health that he’s never been sick (Murray was ill at the Australian Open), at least not sick enough to impair play, that he’s never had a serious injury during the Slam period (he hurt his back at the end of 2008). Roger Federer’s bad matches rarely extend to more than a set or two. Federer has had close calls, quite a few at this year’s French Open, but has always found a way to win.
Roger Federer’s year started so much like 2008. After a US Open win, some thought Federer might come back. Instead, he started 2009 much like 2008. He lost to Rafael Nadal at the final of the Australian Open, a match that went 5 sets where Roger melted down in the fifth set.
His poor play convinced Federer to take time off which he spent working not so much on his forehand, but on his serve, and on his volley. Federer figured he needed to work on his strength. Much of his problems may have stemmed from getting more match fit, being more confident in his body. Meanwhile, it seemed Federer’s rivals, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, were catching up. Both had victories over the Swiss maestro.
But starting at Madrid, Roger began turning things around. Roger made the final against Rafael Nadal, maybe a month after his wedding, and beat Nadal in straight sets, quite an achievement given Roger’s record of futility against Rafael. Some thought he might have a chance to win the French and finally beat Rafa. Some thought Roger could not sustain such excellence over Rafa in a best of 5 set scenario.
No one predicted the four time winner of the French, who won the 2008 title without dropping a set, would actually lose prior to the finals. Yet, lose he did, to Robin Soderling. Soderling would take this huge win and beat Nikolay Davydenko, then come down breaks in the fifth set, and beat Fernando Gonzalez, only to lose to Federer in the finals.
Rafael Nadal would blame his poor play on his bad knees, and eventually opted to head back to Spain and receive treatment instead of defend his Wimbledon title. Meanwhile, Roger would win another epic five-setter over longtime rival, Andy Roddick, and win yet another Wimbledon, his sixth.
Coming into the US Open, Roger took time off when his wife gave birth to twins. It happened about two weeks after Wimbledon during a period where only small tournaments were being played. Roger seemed to have good timing for his twins’ birth. He played Montreal and lost a match he had a huge lead in (against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga), then beat two of his top three rivals in Cincinnati, beating Murray in straight sets in the semifinals, and Novak Djokovic in straight sets in the finals.
Roger was considered the favorite to win the US Open, but no one was quite sure how Rafael Nadal would play. Nadal would lose to Juan Martin del Potro in Montreal, and would lose to Novak Djokovic in the semis at Cincinnati. Not to fret, Nadal’s camp would say. A little rust and a few losses were expected. Nadal was not winning tournaments, but at least he was beating players that weren’t in the top 5. He’d play himself into the US Open.
When Federer played Soderling yet again, it seemed certain that the Swiss would beat the Swede. Soderling is a tough player, but he’s never beaten Roger Federer. Federer won the first two sets handily before Soderling fought and won the third set, and played tough, but lost to Federer in the fourth set.
Novak Djokovic hadn’t played great tennis to get to the semifinals. He beat Fernando Verdasco, but had some problems controlling his forehand. Although Djokovic and Federer played pretty well, it wasn’t at the high level of, say, Nadal vs. Monfils. Nadal matches can often be quite exciting because Nadal chases so many balls down, many of which it doesn’t seem like he can chase.
To be fair, Federer made his share of good shots, but they had a tendency of popping up at strange moments, unexpectedly, and the point is over.
Djokovic had few chances to break Federer, and only managed one break. Meanwhile, Federer did what he does so well. Take advantage of the few opportunities he was given. Federer once said that one reason he likes playing players like Ivo Karlovic is because he knows Karlovic will falter on rare occasions, and he feels confident he can take advantage when those few opportunities arise. This patience helped him win against Andy Roddick where he only managed one break, the last game of the match, in a marathon set, 16-14.
The match was pretty much two exciting points. One was an approach where Novak hit one, two, three, four volleys with Federer blasting shots. Djokovic eventually floated too high a volley. Knowing Roger would win the point, Novak turned around, shoved his fanny in Roger’s direction perhaps expecting to get pegged. Federer hit to the open court, and the point was over.
The other point occured at 0-30 down, 6-5 lead to Roger Federer. Djokovic drew Federer to net with a drop shot. Federer ran to retrieve the shot, then Djokovic lobbed over Federer, who ran back and decided to go for the “tweener”, a shot between his legs. This was struck so well, so flat, that it passed Djokovic, who stood with mouth agape. 0-40 eventually became, game, set, match, Federer, and Federer found himself in yet another US Open final.
Federer’s last meeting with Juan Martin del Potro was the French Open semifinals. They had met in Madrid where Federer won in a comfortable win. Federer had decimated del Potro at the Australian Open earlier in the year, taking 6-0 sets against the Argentine. But the French Open was a different story. del Potro has two huge weapons in his forehand and serve, and he used both to great effect to take Roger to a fifth set at the French.
del Potro beat Nadal almost scary easy today. To be fair, Nadal was probably not 100%, but even then, Nadal can beat a player ranked 20. He’s likely to produce a lot of problems for Roger Federer that one wonders if it won’t be like Safin’s win over Sampras, a changing of the guards, except for Safin, it wasn’t quite that. Safin was a surprise finalist and then only ever won one more Slam where del Potro’s rise has been a year long progression that has shown him getting better and better.
The one advantage Roger Federer has is his win-loss record over del Potro. He’s never lost to him. Federer didn’t play a great semi, but one expects he’ll lift his level of play, and the final will be a great challenge for Federer.
Djokovic, for his part, has a little more work to do. He reached his first Slam semi of the year, and still has chances to improve. But one wonders if del Potro is now the new “it” guy, the guy who can make a big splash, and whether it will come at Roger’s expense.
If Roger does win, he’ll have won his fourth “small Slam” winning 3 of 4 Slams in a year. No one has ever one more than 1 (excluding winning a calendar year Grand Slam), so this accomplishment would mean a great end to 2009, and Federer staying number 1 for the rest of the year (presumably).
The US Open, for the third year in a row, features a finalist that is an up-and-comer. In 2007, it was Novak Djokovic. In 2008, it was Andy Murray. This year, it’s Juan Martin del Potro. Will he end up like the others? Or will he take the next step?
