Head-to-head results usually predict winners reasonably well in tennis. Federer against Roddick or Blake? Federer wins 9 times out of 10. He knows he has more weapons.

But when you look at a match like Soderling vs. Gonzalez, what does it mean? Gonzalez has more experience. He’s been to an Australian Open final. He’s been in the gold medal match of the Olympics. He’s also won the last four times the two have met.

But for as huge a game as Gonzalez has, he should be a better player. That speaks to something mental, I think.

Soderling had an injury some time back where he hurt his left wrist. This injury forced him to take time off. He used this time off to work on his forehand and one-handed slice. The guy also has a big serve. But more than that, Soderling has played calm. These things work in Soderling’s favor to turn the trend of losses he has to Gonzalez, who has beaten him four times in a row (none on clay). Soderling beat Gonzalez early in their head-to-head, winning their first 3 encounters. Could Soderling win in the biggest of stages?

Most people follow up a huge upset with, well, a huge disappointing loss. They are so excited about the win that they don’t prepare for the next match. Not Soderling. He pummeled Davydenko who played a great match to diffuse Verdasco.

But Gonzalez isn’t used to being in the semifinals either. When he’s had his best chances, he’s not been able to seize on them. The one thing Gonzo can take comfort in is the head-to-head results.

This is why they play the match.

Soderling takes the first set. Then, he takes the second. Gonzo knows he won’t have many chances left. He’s not Federer. He might hope to get one Grand Slam title in his career, ever. That’s all he wants. And he knows he can beat this guy. Gonzo comes back and wins the third set. And the fourth set. And he’s up a break in the fifth.

That should be it. Gonzo should be able to taste victory. Hold serve. Get in the finals.

Soderling should wilt. He’s played well to get this far. He’s pushed a tough player five sets. Down a break. Call it a nice tournament. There’s no shame in what he’s accomplished. Sure, he blew a two sets to love lead, but best of five sets generally favor the better player. Good for Gonzalez. The guy deserves the finals.

But Soderling does something funny. He breaks back. The match is tied. No fifth set tiebreak in the French. This could go a while. Soderling holds to consolidate his break. It’s Gonzo’s turn to hold and stay in the match.

Gonzalez must feel the pressure. Soderling holds. Then, Gonzalez serves to stay even. 0-15. Then, 15-all. 15-30, 30-all, 30-40, deuce, ad Soderling, deuce, ad Soderling.

Break.

Uh oh.

A guy that serves as big as Soderling? He’s gotta be able to serve out the match.

40-15. Two match points. Gonzalez’s chances have just slipped through his fingers. All he can do is watch the tall Swede serve.

6-4, game, set, match to Soderling.

The giant killer?

He just got himself into the finals of Roland Garros.