There was every reason to believe that Andy Murray would win this match easily.  He had yet to drop a set.  He was hitting well.  This was Marin Cilic’s first Slam semi. More than that, Cilic has logged a lot of hours on court.  He played a five setter against Aussie teen, Bernard Tomic, who the Aussies are hoping will be their version of Andy Murray.  Then, he took about Juan Martin del Potro in five sets.  Then, in a position to beat Roddick in straight sets, that match also stretched out to five sets.  Despite being young and resilient, a body can only take so much effort.

If Cilic were going to make an impression, it was going to be early on.  Although Murray was favored to win, he still has to play a match.  There’s still pressure to win the match.  And, a little like Federer starting off a bit tight against Davydenko, Murray was a bit surprised that Cilic was hitting the tennis balls so well.  Shot meant to draw Cilic off the court often came back just as powerfully.

One key difference between Cilic and Nadal is the hand they use to hit the ball.  Those sharp angled shots that were aimed at the Nadal backhand and often elicit a neutral reply was met with a crisper reply when it went into Cilic’s forehand.  Cilic can either power that shot crosscourt the other direction or direct it up the line.  A mature player learns to play himself in a match, cut down the errors, and wait for the opponent to wilt some.

Cilic played a tough first set with Murray struggling to hold serve 6-3.  One question on many people’s minds is how Murray would play Cilic.  Would he try to play him like Nadal and take the game to him?

Cilic’s coach, Bob Brett, thought he would not.  The strategy Murray employed was tailor made to play Nadal and Brett figured, it would not be a strategy that he would employ against Cilic.  Turns out he was right, partly because the same strategy would have been less effective against Cilic. Murray dialed back the aggression.  Even the net forays that worked well for Murray were less effective (at least at the outset) against Cilic, who was passing well.

After Cilic had won the first set, Murray needed to straighten out his game or he’d find himself like he did at the US Open.  Sometimes the turnaround culminates in one great point that redefines the momentum.  In the second set, Murray played a circus shot when he was forced to net by Cilic, then forced back by a Cilic lob volley.  With Murray running back, he appeared ready to throw a lob up, but hit a pass instead, to secure an early break.

After that Murray was able to relax and hit his shots.  His goal was to play aggressive, but to also extend the rallies and start working Cilic, making him tired, so he would elicit more errors.  With newfound confidence, and Cilic’s play starting to look a bit less spectacular, Murray took the second set, 6-4.

In the third set, Murray had an early break, but Cilic broke back.  Murray again broke, and was able to hold onto this break to win the third set, 6-4.  By this point, Cilic was starting to make more errors, his shots were less effective, and his serve percentage was also dropping, all signs of fatigue.  Meanwhile, Murray was still moving around quite well.

In the fourth set, in a game where Cilic looked like he would hold easily (40-15), Murray fought back to break in that game.  In the following service game, Cilic also looked like he was in control, and again Murray fought back to take a second break.  In one late point, Cilic hit a spin serve out wide in the deuce court.  Murray dove out, hit a shot that didn’t clear the height of the net, but went around the netpost (a legal shot) and landed in for the winner.  Murray also had another shot where Cilic came to net, hit a sharp volley to Murray’s backhand, and Murray controlled it with a slice down the line.

In the end, Murray served out the set at 6-2, overcame early problems, and finally reached his second Slam final.  He anticipates Roger Federer will win, but of course, said Tsonga is quite good, but like Cilic, had had a lot of matches underneath his belt.

With this, Andy Murray has answered all but the last question.  Can he win a Slam?  He’s reached the final, beat the players he needed to beat.  And now, is there one more good match in him?  Will it be Federer that he faces?  Can he prevent title number 16?

Find out on Sunday!