We’re now down to four players.  One semifinals will be played on Day 11 (Murray vs. Cilic) and one on Day 12 (Federer vs. Tsonga).  Let’s quickly see how everyone is doing.

Andy Murray has yet to drop a set and had his most convincing win yet over Rafael Nadal.  Tactically, he played smart and aggressive, but more importantly, he played the big points well and didn’t let breaks of serve bother him.  He has a 3-1 head-to-head record over Cilic including a win on clay.  Cilic did beat Murray in their last encounter, at the US Open, a straight-set drubbing that left folks questioning whether Murray would ever win a Slam.

Marin Cilic has been slowly working his way up the ranks.  If Murray is considered one of the smartest players out there, with his laptop full of player data that he uses to plan how he plays future opponents, then perhaps Marin Cilic is up there too.  It’s been said that older Croats pick Cilic’s brain for his insights into other players.

There are a few strikes against Cilic.  This will be his first Grand Slam semifinal.  He’s already played three 5-setters and some 4-setters and has logged many more hours than Murray.  Cilic had been the ace leader of the remaining players, but Tsonga now has a 10 ace lead over Cilic.  However, Cilic’s first serve percentage is generally a bit on the low side.  Cilic generally serves just under 60% first serves and was below 50% against Bernard Tomic.  Against Murray, perhaps the best returner in the game, this may prove problematic.  Cilic also showed some mental toughness issues against del Potro failing to close out the match sooner than he did.  Indeed, Roddick was able to take two additional sets in a match that Cilic perhaps could have closed out sooner.

If both players are playing based on form, then Andy Murray should win this match.  He’s had a long time to reflect what happened to him at the US Open, and can at least partly attribute it to an injured wrist.  Murray’s main concern is to not come out too flat.  He’ll want a fast start.

Cilic, for his part, will have to hope that youth is served, that he can work his way through this match.  Andy Roddick, often not given enough credit for his insights, said that one factor that will help Cilic is his playing style.  Unlike Nadal, Cilic doesn’t get pulled off the court too much, and therefore has less wear and tear.  Even so, he said a five setter is a five setter, and it has to affect his play somehow.

OK, let’s get to the other semifinal.  Roger Federer is one confident guy.  In a post-match interview, he said that he was having a hard time seeing the ball when the court was half covered in shade.  But, he thought, even had he lost the second set, he felt he would have worked his way into the match, and his mental toughness and fitness would have won out over Davydenko.  Who knows if this is Roger just playing spin doctor, trying to get into the heads of his opponents or whether he truly believes this.  It’s probably a bit of both.

Roger Federer was taking a beating from Nikolay Davydenko.  Federer had no easy service games for a set and a half facing break points on pretty much every serve.  His slice shots weren’t having the desired effect as Davydenko would hit them aggressively.  Davydenko also served quite well.  But then, the wheels fell off.  Davydenko began having troubles getting first serves in, and that’s key for him to beat Roger.  Meanwhile, he was also having a hard time reading Roger’s serve, so Roger began holding serve more easily.  Once the courts slowed down a bit and Roger could see the ball, he began building up consistency.  It says a lot about Davydenko in this total meltdown that he still could have pulled out a fourth set and turned it into a winner take all fifth set.

Roger simply weathered the storm confident his game would go up and Davydenko’s game would go down, and he didn’t panic.  He took a short bathroom break after the first set, perhaps to buy a few more minutes to let the sun set.

How about Tsonga?  It’s difficult to say what to expect from Tsonga.  On the one hand, he did play Djokovic tough for two sets, but then he lost an easy third set.  Do the last two sets even matter?  Did Tsonga elevate his game or did Djokovic disappear?  If he disappeared, then we get no sense of how Tsonga will play.

Federer has to be strongly favored to win this match.  Although the two have only met twice, and have a 1-1 head-to-head, Federer was quite close to winning the third set in a rout.  In a best of 5 situation, one has to think Federer will find ways to win.  One advantage Federer ought to have is his serve.  Tsonga has a huge serve of his own, but he doesn’t return all that well.  At Wimbledon, he was left guessing which way Karlovic’s serve was going.  Fed doesn’t have that big a racket serve, but he’s going to want to dictate with his serve.

So far, the tournament has had three upsets of note: Tsonga over Djokovic, Cilic over del Potro, and Murray over Nadal.

We’re down to the last four, and after Day 11, we’ll have one finalist determined.