Rafael Nadal had just come off his sixth straight loss to Novak Djokovic, a grueling four-setter that was among the longest matches at the US Open.  Rallies often exceeded 20 shots.  By the time the fourth set rolled along, Nadal was spent.  So, it was amazing, given all that, that Nadal would decide to play Davis Cup.  After all, Spain has one of the deepest teams.  They could easily field two different teams and both could be quite successful.  With world number 2, Rafael Nadal, and world number 5, David Ferrer, no other country boasts a more powerful 1-2 punch.

French captain, Guy Forget, must have realized that his chances weren’t great to win.  He’s never had (to my knowledge) both Tsonga and Monfils healthy at the same time, which would give him his best combination.  With Monfils out, Forget decided to make a risky decision.  Gasquet is now a top twenty player.  Perhaps his style of play would be enough to push Nadal if not necessarily beat him.

Alas, Nadal has a 9-0 record against Gasquet.  Forget must have hoped that the US Open so wearied Nadal that Nadal would be unable to chase down balls.  Admittedly, if that were the case, Nadal would have excused himself from Davis Cup.  Instead, Nadal had an easy 6-3, 6-0, 6-1 win as Gasquet simply could not keep his errors down.  Gasquet tried to play big and missed a great deal, and if he didn’t Nadal played aggressive against him.

The hope must have been for Gilles Simon to beat David Ferrer.  Simon is a counterpuncher.  He doesn’t beat you with power, although he has the ability to hit with flat pace.  Simon has never been spectacular on clay, although he did win Hamburg this year.  His flat style is a little susceptible on clay.  Plus, Ferrer’s goal is to punish a righty’s backhand with his inside out forehand.  Ferrer’s style is a bit like Federer except Federer hits a one-shot knockout with his inside-out forehand while Ferrer hits lots of balls working over a righty’s backhand and then maybe hits the inside-in to finish the point.

Simon, like Gasquet, produced one error after the other, especially in the first set.  Ferrer kept the pressure on Simon, and Simon dropped the first set, 6-1.  The second set was closer with Ferrer 6-4 although Simon lead early.  The third set was another beatdown  Ferrer with another 6-1 set.

This leaves France in a very precarious situation.  They must win out.  They have a somewhat decent chance to take the doubles.  They can plug in Tsonga to play Nadal and maybe Tsonga can pressure Nadal.  But they don’t have anyone solid enough to beat Ferrer.  They could take a gamble with Llodra, but on clay, his chances aren’t good.

Novak Djokovic had a number of post US Open obligations which meant he stayed in the US on Tuesday and into Wednesday.  He didn’t reach Serbia until Thursday, the day before the tie, at which point, he proclaimed himself too tired to play.  Serbia has a decent team.  Troicki and Tipsarevic are top 20 players with Tipsarevic at 13 and Troicki at 16.  But Juan Martin del Potro is basically a top ten player and Nalbandian has been a top 3 player.

Nalbandian took on Troicki in the first match and beat him in four sets.  Juan Martin del Potro beat Tipsarevic in three sets.  Serbia could come back from this.  The Argentines best chance in doubles would be Eduardo Schwank and Horacio Zeballos who are, more or less, doubles specialists.  However, the Argentine captain has decided to go with Monaco and Chela,  because they can sub in as singles players if it came to that.  Serbia will play Tipsarevic and Zimonjic.  Zimonjic is a world-class doubles player, but there is no other such player for Serbia. Zimonjic has had to pair with players from other countries.

Even so, Serbia should have a reasonable shot at doubles.  They would need Djokovic to play against del Potro, a match he would be favored to win, and then hope Tipsarevic could beat Nalbandian.  At least that is somewhat reasonable.

Even so, both Serbia and France are in trouble.  Serbia has a better chance because Djokovic could sub in and be expected to win, but France has no sure-bet against Nadal.