The big clay court tournaments are done. There were three Masters 1000 tournaments: Monte Carlo, Rome, and Madrid (which replaced Hamburg).

The top players are taking the week prior to the French to get ready for the second Grand Slam major of the year.

There are, of course, some minor clay court tournaments being played this week, one week prior to the French. Lower ranked players are using this time to get some extra play and pay in.

This is a good time to see how the top 10 players are looking, heading into the French.

First up is four time defending champion, Rafael Nadal. He won Monte Carlo and Rome, and was runner-up to Federer in Madrid. He’s the class of the field, again. There are maybe two players that currently look like threats to Nadal. We’ll get to them. He should be considered a strong favorite to repeat, although he looks a little more vulnerable than last year. Nadal did lose to Ferrero last year in Rome, but then played like a machine at the French, winning without dropping a set and demolishing Federer in the final. Expect Nadal to step it up.

Number 2 Roger Federer has followed up 2008 with a similarly spotty 2009. Roger had more success on clay in 2008. He played Rafa twice in Masters 1000 finals.

This year, Roger lost in the third round in Monte Carlo (to Wawrinka), the semis in Rome (to Djokovic), and won Madrid. At least, his results are trending in the right direction. The victory against Nadal was huge, but the way he won it and the circumstances he won it make people wonder if he can repeat in a best of 5 in Paris. Nadal isn’t his only challenge. Djokovic is playing well on clay and has beaten Roger. Roger has to eliminate lapses in his game if he hopes to beat players like Djokovic.

Based on Novak’s strong play, you have to consider him the second favorite behind Nadal. He finally seems comfortable with his racquet, and his finding good range. Furthermore, he doesn’t yet look dejected despite three losses to Rafa, the last, a tantalizingly close loss in Madrid.

Number 3 Andy Murray lost in the semis in Monte Carlo (to Rafa), lost in the 2nd round (opening) in Rome (to Juan Monaco), and lost in the quarterfinals in Madrid (to del Potro). Right now, his record on clay looks spotty. Murray seems uncertain how he should play on clay. He mentioned how Rafa starts matches hitting from way back and works his way into matches (Murray likes hitting from way back) and tried to imitate that. Then he noted that the top players (Fed/Djokovic) don’t change their play that much from hard courts to clay, so perhaps he plans to play clay more like a hardcourt. Murray hopes to play in the second week. That would be pretty good for Murray. If he doesn’t play more aggressively, he’s in for an early loss.

Number 4 Novak Djokovic was a finalist (to Nadal) in Monte Carlo and Rome. He beat Roger in Rome. He lost to Rafa in the semis at Madrid. If Rafa looks to be the favorite going into Paris, you have to, on record, pick Novak as second favorite. He’s had the second best record, only losing to Rafa. He’s beaten Roger. The one catch is Roger has beaten Rafa. Djokovic’s best chance is to be on Roger’s side of the draw. Roger’s best chance is for Novak to be on Rafa’s side of the draw.

Number 5 Juan Martin del Potro lost to Ljubicic, who has had a pretty good clay season, in the second (opening round) of Monte Carlo, lost to Djokovic in the semis in Rome, and lost to Federer in the semis to Federer. He’s had a solid clay season, but the guys ahead of him (minus Murray) are still too good for him. Still, he should be good to the quarterfinals of the French.

Number 6 is Andy Roddick. Roddick got married and skipped Monte Carlo and Rome. He reached the quarters of Madrid (the only clay tournament he played), losing to Federer. Clay is not Roddick’s best surface. However, Roddick does have a decently steady game. He doesn’t have enough firepower to scare enough people, but I feel his game is a bit better suited to clay than, say, Murray mostly because he can hit a bit harder and his serve. Since he’s played so little this clay season, it’s really hard to say where his game is. Probably good for a quarterfinal appearance.

Number 7 Gilles Simon had a bad loss to Andreas Beck in the second round of Monte Carlo, lost to Zverev in the 3rd round in Rome, and lost to Ljubicic in the 3rd round at Rome. For a guy who looked awfully good on hard courts and indoors last year, Simon looks pretty shaky since he lost two Davis Cup matches against the Czech Republic (to Berdych and to Stepanek). Simon appears to be heading in the wrong direction in 2009. I think unless he shapes up, expect an early round loss for the steady Frenchman.

Number 8 Fernando Verdasco lost to Djokovic in the quarters of Monte Carlo, and to Rafa in the quarters of Rome and Madrid. I think he’s hoping Rafa is not in his half of the draw. Verdasco has the kind of game that could take him pretty far. I think he should have a decent French Open. He’s the big wildcard that could make life tough for whoever meets him. The main problem for Verdasco is errors and his mental toughness. His strength is his serve and huge forehand.

Number 9 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga didn’t play Monte Carlo, lost to Gasquet in the first round of Rome, and to Ljubicic in the second round of Madrid. Tsonga’s play has been worse than Gilles Simon. Doesn’t look good heading into the French. The entire French contingent seems pretty bad (Gasquet is suspended, and I think Monfils is hurt).

Number 10 Nikolay Davydenko lost in the quarters of Monte Carlo to Murray, lost in the second round to Melzer at Rome, and didn’t play his match against Roddick at Madrid. Again, a spotty record leading to the French. He was number 4 in the world last year, so things have not been that great for him in 2009. He was pretty much missing on the tour from mid February to mid April due to an injury and is likely not 100%.

Outside the top 10, I could see Blake or Fish going a few rounds. Stan Wawrinka and Tommy Robredo should be good for a few rounds too. Ivan Ljubicic, despite his relatively low ranking, has been playing pretty well as of late. Juan Monaco has also played pretty well.

Based on form, I’d put Nadal 1, Djokovic 2, Federer 3, del Potro 4, and maybe Verdasco 5.
Although Murray is ranked 3 and will be seeded 3rd, he’s going to have to find some answers quick if he expects a successful French. His style is a bit too passive and he lets big hitters push him around. Short of injury, he’s the likely top seed to fall first.

Rafa’s biggest threats are Djokovic and Federer. Those appear to be the only two guys that can really hurt Rafa. He’s played well against del Potro and Verdasco. It’s hard to see anyone else who might bother Rafa as long as he stays healthy. He’s still the prohibitive favorite, but Roger’s recent win and Djokovic’s near win make it interesting. Rafa may still have to go through them both to reclaim his title.

Any predictions?